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Today's chart for Sweden. Hard to say if it is going up, down or stabilizing, but for now I would bet on stabilizing around 60-80.

 

sw_pt_1_7.png.3e14160d170432c47ece7b7f30

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Well, as far as I know, it is against the Swedish constitution to go into lockdown.  Changing one of the basic laws would need an acceptance by three different parlamentary sessions.  At the beginning, the governement was asking for greater powers but was opposed by the opposition...  We have not been involved in war for more than 200 years, which might explain the lack of emergency solutions.

The care homes were closed to visitors on March 31st.  All citizens over 70 years were told to self isolate. Regarding schools, I really don't know.  But children are not supposed to visit their older relatives. 

I've been wondering about the care homes, both at home and in other countries; is it because they went private that e.g.  the protective gear is lacking?  Read today that one of the big firms in Britain want to reduce pay for the staff. I always thought it was a bad idea to make care homes into profit seeking companies.

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2 hours ago, Elljay said:

Well, as far as I know, it is against the Swedish constitution to go into lockdown.  Changing one of the basic laws would need an acceptance by three different parlamentary sessions.  At the beginning, the governement was asking for greater powers but was opposed by the opposition...  We have not been involved in war for more than 200 years, which might explain the lack of emergency solutions.

If there is a sense of urgency, things move. Changing constitution in a crisis is not a big deal. What I see is that there was no sense of urgency nor emergency. Most countries have well defined levels of emergencies.

 

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The care homes were closed to visitors on March 31st.  All citizens over 70 years were told to self isolate.

I suspect that the highest peak I see in my chart is the result of closing care homes, i.e., deaths dropped 2 weeks after.

 

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Regarding schools, I really don't know.  But children are not supposed to visit their older relatives. 

It is a highly contagious virus. Children pass to each other, they pass on to parents, parents pass on to workers in a coffee shop, workers pass on to elderly. Problem is, children don't have enough maturity to keep social distance. Does not matter if you "advise" or force the rest of the country into social distance if kids are allowed together. This is the big flaw in Sweden's plan.

 

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I've been wondering about the care homes, both at home and in other countries; is it because they went private that e.g.  the protective gear is lacking?  Read today that one of the big firms in Britain want to reduce pay for the staff. I always thought it was a bad idea to make care homes into profit seeking companies.

It's very simple: these care homes are geared toward everyday's need. If a new challenge like this comes quickly, their management and workers have no time nor skills to devise their own safety plans. They have to get guidelines from a supervising authority. In Sweden this failed completely because up until now the authorities refuse the role to give these guidelines, and downplayed the virus! Amateur hour!

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The science will always be the decision-maker.

 

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Hydroxychloroquine, a decades-old malaria drug touted by President Donald Trump, didn’t appear to help hospitalized patients with Covid-19, according to a new observational study published Thursday in the New England Journal of Medicine.

 

The study, funded by the National Institutes of Health and conducted by researchers at New York-Presbyterian Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center in New York City, looked at 1,376 consecutive patients who showed up at the emergency room with symptoms of coronavirus.

 

Nearly 60%, or 811 of the patients, received the drug within 48 hours and were found, on average, to be more severely ill than those who didn’t receive the drug, the researchers said. They said the study’s findings didn’t find any potential benefit or harm from the drug, adding a rigorous, randomized clinical trial is needed.

 

The new findings come two weeks after the Food and Drug Administration warned consumers against chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine to treat Covid-19 outside a hospital or formal clinical trial setting.

 

The agency said it became aware of reports of “serious heart rhythm problems” in patients with the virus who were treated with the malaria drugs, often in combination with antibiotic azithromycin, commonly known as a Z-Pak.

 

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On 5/6/2020, 1:08:55, keith2011 said:

 

I am struggling to understand how this post from you relates to the quote you included from @Rushrush did you choose the wrong quote by any chance?

Yeah that's entirely possible my ipad seems to remember the previous post unfinished post so I always have to go back and remove the old post before commenting. So instead of deleting it probably posted.  Annoying as hell. 

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This goes back to a previous comment I made (which I can't find) about how many deaths are acceptable but I think the question is worded wrongly. A better way of putting this is "What level of economic destruction are we willing to accept?". I saw an article in my newsfeed today "70% of US small businesses to close". That is an insane level of economic destruction, enough to rival the great depression. Or to put it another way, what do we do when all the kids (nephews nieces etc) are unemployed. Secondly you're starting to see stories of people dying because life saving surgeries were put off. I am soooo happy my wife got her cancer surgery before all of this started.

 

So to ask again, what level of economic destruction are we willing to accept to beat this virus?

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@Rushrush, Sweden shows that even without enforcing a strict lockdown the economy goes down badly. Their GDP forecasts are as bad as other countries.

And even if you could convince most countries to lift lockdown to ease the economy, that would not work, as many people simply refuse to go back to work. Also it would collapse health care systems.

Lockdown is unavoidable on the short term, economy downturn is unavoidable on the short and mid term.

 

Remember that there is no underlying economical effect, once an effective treatment or a vaccine is found, things go quickly to normal and economy booms.

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The Russian Government has approved the use of HCQ for use against Coronavirus:

 

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The Russian government has authorized hospitals to treat coronavirus patients with the untested malaria drug hydroxychloroquine, which studies have linked to potentially deadly side effects.

Thursday’s decree instructs Russia’s national medical cardiology research center to distribute 68,600 packs of hydroxychloroquine donated by a Shanghai pharmaceutical company to hospitals across Russia for free.

 

 

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/04/17/russia-approves-unproven-malaria-drug-to-treat-coronavirus-a70025

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Norway lifting lockdown. Almost 10x less deaths than Sweden per million. And lockdown is almost over.

https://www.thelocal.no/20200507/norway-to-lift-almost-all-restrictions-by-june-15-in-new-plan

 

I wonder what will happen in the border with Sweden. I doubt they will open it, at least without mandatory quarantine. My guess is that by not imposing lockdown, Sweden is basically locking itself out of the rest of the Europe, which is quite ironic.

 

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3 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

once an effective treatment or a vaccine is found, things go quickly to normal and economy booms.

dream on

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4 hours ago, Rushrush said:

Secondly you're starting to see stories of people dying because life saving surgeries were put off. I am soooo happy my wife got her cancer surgery before all of this started.

 

I've seen and read in the news in Germany in the last few days that in Germany hospitals have enough capacity to carry on with emergency  and life saving operations. 

 

 

 

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Update: 135 deaths in Sweden today. Highest value in 2 weeks.

Of course this will be followed by 2 days with low numbers (weekend lack of reporting), so it is still unclear if this a plateau or if it is going up, but definitely it is NOT going down. My best guess is still a plateau. My guess for average value is 75.

As I am showing a moving average curve, the weekend lack of reporting will reduce the new peak height.

sw_pt_1_8.png.5a954304bf80bddcb951cdff3f

 

EDIT: in the meantime, 9 deaths in Portugal. 3 in Finland, 0 in Norway.

 

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2 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

@Rushrush, Sweden shows that even without enforcing a strict lockdown the economy goes down badly. Their GDP forecasts are as bad as other countries.

Yupp, seems I was making the same argument a while back - insert embarrassed emoji. The thing is you get so much conflicting information it makes your head spin.

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51 minutes ago, Rushrush said:

Yupp, seems I was making the same argument a while back - insert embarrassed emoji. The thing is you get so much conflicting information it makes your head spin.

 

The entire Coronavirus is a camouflage to cover up a very bad banking system in deep trouble. 

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Do you really think so?   Do you really really think so...    Really? Honestly?

 

J² seen just 10 minutes ago...

 

Teaching and Learning at a Distance: Course Discussion: Purpose

 

 

 

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Sweet mother of Jesus Jeremy. Why do you write such shit? 

I know of no drug that causes such stupidity, so I'm not even going to ask what you're smoking

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30 minutes ago, jeremytwo said:

 

The entire Coronavirus is a camouflage to cover up a very bad banking system in deep trouble. 

There must be many truths that will never be revealed to us mere morals though I am wondering if you are indeed clothed in a turquoise Icke like shell suit?

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