9,374 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Your graphs do not take into account the second wave.  It might be that the second wave is much worst than the first and if Sweden achieves herd immunity then for Sweden the second wave might not be as bad as for other countries.

 

Sure, and perhaps there is a vaccine or an effective treatment by then... or perhaps there is no herd immunity. What we knew in March is that a weak lockdown would kill many more people. The rest is pure guessing. For Sweden to be "right", it means that ALL of this has to happen:

  • a second wave comes (95%)
  • localized lockdown fails (75%)
  • there is no vaccine (80%)
  • there is no better treatment (20%)
  • Immunity can be developed for Coronavirus (50%)
  • at least 60-95% of the population already got the virus and got immune (30%)
  • the immunity hasn't wear off yet (90%)
  • the immunity also works against potential mutations (95%)
  • ...

I've added a guess percentage to each one, considering a second wave in October. This gives me a (extremely rough guessing) 1.5% chance that Sweden is doing the right thing. As a leader of a country, are you comfortable in making that decision? Even if I move up the percentage of having no better treatment to 80% I only get 5%. Being even more generous, if you raise the possibility of immunity to 80%, you only get 9.4%!

 

Also the "second wave" is being presented as a "doomsday" scenario. Even if it is as deadly as the current one (doubtful),  at the current rate, Portugal can have 3 waves and still fare better!

Of course it could happen that the second wave comes with a more deadly mutation. Still, at best, Sweden would have only less than 10% of fairing better than other countries...

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20 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Sure, and perhaps there is a vaccine or an effective treatment by then... or perhaps there is no herd immunity. What we knew in March is that a weak lockdown would kill many more people. The rest is pure guessing. For Sweden to be "right", it means that ALL of this has to happen:

  • a second wave comes (95%)
  • localized lockdown fails (75%)
  • there is no vaccine (80%)
  • there is no better treatment (20%)
  • Immunity can be developed for Coronavirus (50%)
  • at least 60-95% of the population already got the virus and got immune (30%)
  • the immunity hasn't wear off yet (90%)
  • the immunity also works against potential mutations (95%)
  • ...

I've added a guess percentage to each one, considering a second wave in October. This gives me a (extremely rough guessing) 1.5% chance that Sweden is doing the right thing. As a leader of a country, are you comfortable in making that decision? Even if I move up the percentage of having no better treatment to 80% I only get 5%. Being even more generous, if you raise the possibility of immunity to 80%, you only get 9.4%!

 

Also the "second wave" is being presented as a "doomsday" scenario. Even if it is as deadly as the current one (doubtful),  at the current rate, Portugal can have 3 waves and still fare better!

Of course it could happen that the second wave comes with a more deadly mutation. Still, at best, Sweden would have only less than 10% of fairing better than other countries...

 

Mike - you are the only one presenting self-made statistical analysis on here and it is appreciated. Listening to that banned video of the CA doctor, it seems locking down healthy people was the worst thing to do as we gain immunity by daily interacting with each other in schools and offices. Self quarantining the sick is effective, they say. 

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1 hour ago, john g. said:

Being critical of ANY powerful structure or person-whether  the WHO, the UN, Boris, Trump, Bill Gates, the EU, the Tories in Westminster or the opposition parties,  or even your psychopathic neighbour ( who can be powerful if you leave them unchallenged ) is SENSIBLE and necessary.

We should not be obedient robots. 

Everyone should always be questioning those with power.

However there is a world of difference between questioning them and calling them pedophiles,lizard people,Mass murderers,baby eaters,people who want to euthanise half the world.

1 hour ago, jeremytwo said:

The tensions with the Chinese right now are so high, especially in the S China Sea, that one false move and we could be in all out war. It has never been this tense. That's why I trust DJT so much.

You trust the man who is responsible for that tension,yet you say it will mean an end to wars ?

1 hour ago, jeremytwo said:

There have been zero safety tests on these vaccinations

Which vaccines ?

1 hour ago, jeremytwo said:

(particularly that self appointed college dropout Bill Gates

This always comes across a nothing but jealousy.The man managed to sell a programme despite there being better ones to nearly everyone.He made a fortune and he may be a snake oil salesman but they`re usually your heroes.

 

You can pretty much guarantee that you lot would have built up some big evil scheme about Jonas Salk.

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"Coronavirus mutations: Scientists puzzle over impact"

 

Quote

Researchers in the US and UK have identified hundreds of mutations to the virus which causes the disease Covid-19.

But none has yet established what this will mean for virus spread in the population and for how effective a vaccine might be.

Viruses mutate - it's what they do.

 

The question is: which of these mutations actually do anything to change the severity or infectiousness of the disease?

Preliminary research from the US has suggested one particular mutation - D614G - is becoming dominant and could make the disease more infectious.

BBC

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23 minutes ago, Keleth said:

Fucking hell definitely beer o`clock when you`re discussing Corona with a chicken.

Was that before or after you roasted it ?

 

I spoke to my puppy Mandy this evening because a guy dog wants to roger her! 😂

I don’t talk to chickens, though! Their English grammar isn’t usually good enough!

And then there was a “ cordial “ exchange on here with SpiderPig.. which was censured!

Power! Humans are mostly a bunch of fascists trying to control other people’s thoughts and emotions.

Shame- we humans have such potential ( when we are  not busy killing each other.)

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On 05/05/2020, 13:21:18, MikeMelga said:

There will be developments, and fast.

...

I am sure that an effective treatment will show up in the upcoming 2 months and a vaccine in a few more months.

 

Then Sweden authorities will look like idiots.

#MelgaPredictions

 

The last sentence is completely unnecessary.    I am convinced that many people on this forum are unable to entertain ideas which are inconsistent or even opposed to their internal working hypotheses.   Given the amount of uncertainty, i don't see how that approach is beneficial.  

 

If an effective treatment does not show up by July 5, 2020 and a vaccine by October 5, 2020, will you consider that it is a Portuguese SW guy rather than "Sweden authorities" who looks like something.   

 

For the record, i am not suggesting that anyone is an idiot, but you have kind of turned this into a zero sum game.  

 

 

 

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9 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

I've overlapped Portugal and Sweden daily deaths. Both countries have the same population size. I've adjusted the start date to match initial curves.

 

This is a textbook example of what happens when you lockdown or not.

ps_6m.png.3898efbabd11855022b4dead989d1c

 

Not only peak in Sweden is much higher, but the peak is also much later, meaning the whole mess takes much more time.

Peak in Portugal was around the 29th day after first death. In Sweden, at best, peak was at the 43rd day. Right now Portugal is at +/- 50% of peak, while Sweden is at +/- 70% of the apparent peak, i.e., some 10-13 days behind Portugal.

Total death toll is about 3x higher than Portugal. Portugal is about to relax restrictions and allow kids to go back to school, similarly to Germany. The Swedish authorities are still considering if they should increase lockdown or not.

 

Now for the current status in Sweden: it seems peak was already reach, but now remains to be seen if we go into a plateau or a slow drop. Friday's numbers should clarify that.

On one hand, they finally started closing access to the retirement homes, and deaths in Stockholm are reducing, which might explain the drop. On the other hand, it seems it is now spreading to other areas of the country and smaller hospitals with less equipment are not coping with it, so a new peak might be reached.

 

Compare Belgium.    Belgium is in much worse shape than Sweden, but gets almost no recognition or criticism almost as if there is an agenda.   The populations of Belgium, Sweden, and Portugal are comparable though population densities vary.  

 

But using population density of the entire land mass of a country makes no sense given that northern Sweden is very sparsely populated.    There are probably some GIS maps which would allow a calculation of average density while omitting areas below a certain density.  

 

 

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11 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

Compare Belgium.    Belgium is in much worse shape than Sweden, but gets almost no recognition or criticism almost as if there is an agenda.   The populations of Belgium, Sweden, and Portugal are comparable though population densities vary. 

 

 

 That is a good point, what is going on in Belgium? It has the highest death rate per 1M population of anywhere (excepting San Marino) over 2 times that of Sweden and 6 times that of Portugal but with similar rates of infection. Also it seems to be suffering far worse than any of the countries it shares borders with.

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It's not a good point, it's more whataboutary from the troll-farm.

 

It's also wrong.

The mainstream UK press have certainly covered problems in Belgium recently. Here the BBC from May 2nd and Here the independent from the same day.

 

From the Independent article (my bold):-

Quote

Belgium’s high numbers have less to do with the spread of the disease and more to do with the way it counts fatalities. Its figures include all the deaths in the country’s more than 1,500 nursing homes, even those untested for the virus. These numbers add up to more than half of the overall figure.

 

Comparing one country against another needs to be done very carefully and with a full understanding of what is being compared, otherwise it simply distorts the story. 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

@pappnase, right, and also Belgium has a very high population density, which is the opposite of Sweden.

 

So is it also fair to compare Sweden with Portugal?

It is clear to me that different countries count things differently but as seen by the two reports quoted by @pappnase I was not alone in wondering what is going on in Belgium, I also note that the testing per 1M population is high so wonder how many of those recorded deaths were untested.

We should be questioning these things not to score points or divert blame (that's for the politicians) but to understand and learn if possible.

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11 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

 

So is it also fair to compare Sweden with Portugal?

Portugal has many more problems and still fared 3x better. No, it´s not fair to Portugal, which makes the Swedish case look much worst.

My point there was showing curve flattening by lockdown.

If we want to compare in terms of population density and very similar social circumstances, let´s compare with Norway or Finland. In that case, Sweden looks even worst than comparing with Portugal.

 

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Every country has hidden Corona deaths. Belgium includes them in their stats, others don't. Hidden means that the patient was not tested, but where the GP has strong suspicion that it is Corona related. The Dutch GP's reported 764 such cases on 25th of April, but are not included in the official stats. The number probably exceeds 1000 by now.

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1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

Portugal has many more problems and still fared 3x better. No, it´s not fair to Portugal, which makes the Swedish case look much worst.

My point there was showing curve flattening by lockdown.

If we want to compare in terms of population density and very similar social circumstances, let´s compare with Norway or Finland. In that case, Sweden looks even worst than comparing with Portugal.

 

No argument about that, it is clear that to date Sweden looks very bad and as you posted previously the odds are it will stay that way.

It may be too soon to analyse why for example Portugal has faired so much better than its neighbour Spain or why generally countries in Africa (where things were expected to be the worst) so far at least seem to have fared much better than the rest of the world, but perhaps it is not much too soon to discuss this.

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Regarding Sweden and the fake news about the situation there:

 

Quote

Many outside Sweden considered the Swedish policies and the measures taken by its government to fight the pandemic to be different when compared to most other countries.[184] Sweden questioned the scientific basis for imposing mandatory lockdown seen in other European countries, relying instead on the civic responsibility of its citizens to keep large parts of its society open. Although senior high schools were closed and gatherings of more than 50 people were banned, shops, restaurants and junior schools remained open.

 

Citizens were requested (rather than ordered) to voluntarily observe social distancing rules, avoid non-essential travel, work from home and stay indoors if they are elderly or feeling ill.[185][186] With Sweden instituting some of the least strict measures of any European country or of countries with a similar number of cases, the country's policy has attracted the attention of international media, both positive and negative.[187][188][189]

 

Much of the international coverage was neutral, but some of it also contained criticism,[190] and in some cases was accused of being "fake news".[191] Many foreign news outlets described Sweden as pursuing a herd immunity strategy,[190] including US president Donald Trump, who during a press briefing told the assembled media that Sweden was 'suffering very greatly' due to what he referred to as 'the herd', and that the US, if done the same, 'would have lost hundreds of thousands more people'.[192][193] Responding partly to Trump's remarks, which she described by using the word ‘misinformation’, Swedish foreign minister Ann Linde said that the ‘so-called Swedish strategy’ was one of many myths about Sweden, and described it as ‘absolutely false’. 

 

Sweden's state epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, when asked about Trump's remarks, said that in his opinion Sweden was doing relatively well, and were no worse off than New York.[194] Several articles in international media painted a picture of things being 'business as usual' in Sweden, with its citizens ignoring the recommendations to practice social distancing and avoiding unnecessary travel.[190] According to Linde, this was another of the myths in the reporting about Sweden, and she said Sweden's combination of recommendations and legally binding measures had so far proven effective.[39] One notable example was an article in the British newspaper The Guardian, saying everything in Sweden went on as normal, with Swedes "going about their daily routines". The article attracted particularly high attention, and was quoted by many European newspapers.[191][195] The Guardian was also accused of misleading their readers in another article, by selectively choosing quotes and putting them in a different context, and by disproportionately giving room to critical voices from Sweden in their reporting. One of the most vocal Swedish critics quoted in foreign media was immunologist Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér,[196][197] and was quoted accusing the government of "leading us to catastrophe" and having "decided to let people die."[195]

 

Some of the harshest criticism was found in the Chinese paper Global Times, closely linked to the ruling Communist Party of China, accused Sweden of having capitulated to the virus, calling the country 'a black hole' and called for the international community to condemn Sweden's actions.[198] Some, including Swedish justice minister Morgan Johansson, speculated that the strong criticism may be partly linked to the poor relations between the two countries after China's imprisonment of the Swedish book publisher Gui Minhai.[199][198]

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden

 

https://www.google.com/search?q=COVID-19+cases+in+Sweden&rlz=1C1SQJL_enDE885DE885&oq=COVID-19+cases+in+Sweden&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

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1 minute ago, MikeMelga said:

Quick note: 99 death in Sweden today, definitely it is not slowing down, will put some charts later after work.

I thought this is your work 🤓.

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I was writing a couple of notes in response to the comments about how Sweden is handling the crises, but Janxs Spirit's post came in first, dealing with most of my issues. I have been following the Swedish news closely ever since the beginning of the outbreak, being Swedish. 

A lockdown was never an option as that goes against fundamental law. It has nothing to do with "people wanting to dine out". Care homes were closed to visitors about a month ago. Many people work from home. Funerals are just family or on video. Sport events and cultural events have been cancelled. It is not "business as usual".  And yes, office staff, such as those putting in the "numbers" have weekends off. Does it really matter in the long run? The numbers are getting there. 

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2 hours ago, Elljay said:

A lockdown was never an option as that goes against fundamental law.

I find it very hard to believe you don't have emergency levels which allow that.

 

Quote

It has nothing to do with "people wanting to dine out". Care homes were closed to visitors about a month ago.

So one month too late. What about the complete lack of guidelines for care homes? I've seen articles of care givers complaining that nobody told them to wear masks, gloves nor other guidelines! Complete incompetence from central authorities.

 

Quote

Many people work from home. Funerals are just family or on video. Sport events and cultural events have been cancelled. It is not "business as usual".

What about schools? Why the hell are schools still working? Kids rarely die from it, but they sure can pass them on to parents and grandparents. What about restaurants and other closed shops?

 

Quote

  And yes, office staff, such as those putting in the "numbers" have weekends off. Does it really matter in the long run? The numbers are getting there. 

Yes it does matter. R calculation are updated daily, for example. They have said in Germany that if the threshold is passed, next day they close again.

If you have a localized outbreak of cases on Saturday, do you really have to wait 2 days to act? Sorry, this is pure incompetence. Hospital workers DO work on weekends.

 

Regarding that the "numbers are getting there", this is also not realistic. Sweden is not testing enough. It's testing 3x less than other countries like Norway or Dernmark. This is evident because of the fatality rate. Of course it is not over 10%. This means the true dimension of the epidemic in Sweden is unknown, new localized outbreaks are only detected late.

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