9,374 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

Sorry, that is still meaningless compared to the rest of the economy, which closes independently of lockdown strategy. Example: Volvo not manufacturing and selling one single car equates to dozens and dozens of nail salon rents. You are too focused on what is around you, the economy is much, much more than small shops.

It is.But if all those small businesses etc go bust then who is going to buy Volvos car even if they only make one.

If Volvo goes bust then a lot less people will be getting nails done etc.

They`re both as important as the other.

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1 hour ago, Keleth said:

It is.But if all those small businesses etc go bust then who is going to buy Volvos car even if they only make one.

If Volvo goes bust then a lot less people will be getting nails done etc.

They`re both as important as the other.

Volvo is an export product. The rest of the world is on lockdown, independently of what Sweden does. If small business in Sweden fail, they can´t buy a Volvo. That´s not the point, the internal market is not the main market for Volvo.

My point here is that an unilateral decision from one country will not change their economical downturn significantly, which is evident by their GDP forecasts. But it does kill a lot of people.

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On 4/30/2020, 9:15:28, Keleth said:

But your post is also basically whataboutism.

Yes not many people cut off travel etc but that doesn`t matter because the Democrats (they probably would have fucked it up too) are not in power.

I also personally believe if the disease had started almost anywhere else he would not have imposed restrictions so soon,this was a good reason for him to push something on his personal agenda.

One of the things about being a leader is ultimately you are responsible for everything that happens under your leadership."Suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune" (That`s my remembrance of Shakespeare just about done) but Trump does not do that.His ego will not allow him to admit he made a mistake which is why he gets abuse or laughed at by many people. 

I`ve often said I saw nothing special about Obama but at least he was Presidential,Trump seems to think he is leading a business and can say what he wants to who he wants because he`s the boss.

I still remember when a reporter asked him what he would say to Americans who are scared and Trump turned round and said I`d say you`re a terrible reporter and that it was a nasty question.

FFS the perfect opportunity for Trump to show some leadership and to settle Americans and he comes up with that answer.

So that's what you call pointing out hypocrisy...  It's a perfectly legitimate question to ask how others would have done in this situation. I, very much, doubt it would have been much better.  If you remember:

 

Pre Corona Democrats:  Trump wacist for enforcing border controls

Post Corona Democrats: Trump asshole for not closing the borders tightly enough

 

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3 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Sorry, that is still meaningless compared to the rest of the economy, which closes independently of lockdown strategy. Example: Volvo not manufacturing and selling one single car equates to dozens and dozens of nail salon rents. You are too focused on what is around you, the economy is much, much more than small shops.

 

It is large companies and small shops.   Both are important.   

 

By the way

 

 

Screenshot 2020-05-06 at 08.02.35.png

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On 5/1/2020, 1:21:59, Rushrush said:

Yes welcome to the messy world of content moderation. I'm sympathetic to the issues Youtube and others face they were all focused on growth at all costs and now that you're getting millions up millions posts every minute it's very difficult to sort the wheat from the chafe. The second issue is, good or bad, the news used to have to go through a professional newsroom, this keep fake news conspiracy theories mostly out of the mainstream. If you lean left, you read left leaning papers, lean right read conservative papers. 

The problem I see is that politicians and so called experts break their own "stay home" rules.  Remember Neil Ferguson, the so called British expert who praised the Chinese quarantine model with people being dragged from their homes and loaded into trucks?  Well it turns out he broke quarantine and met his girlfriend while HE HAD CORONA.

 

Neil Ferguson, UK coronavirus advisor, resigns after breaking lockdown rules

 

Stay at home orders do not make you safe.  Although contrary to what many Toytown members believe you're more likely to get an airborne virus indoors than outdoors where it's spread out.  It's like telling little Johnny not to squat because the weight will hurt his back.  Well it's also dangerous not to go to the gym; if you sit around all day watching TV and Youtube you risk clogged arteries for example.

 

I've lost count of how many politicians/celebrities broke their own rules.

 

 

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3 hours ago, AlexTr said:

 It's amazing that we have a person in the White House so willing to kill people for money. Economies can be rebuilt,but people can never be brought back from the dead. In which Trump commits to making a reality of the prediction that is his disastrous polling.

 

 

You seem to be under the delusion that unemployment doesn't kill.

 

Unemployment kills 1 in 5 suicides associated with unemployment

 

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41 minutes ago, J0ker said:

So that's what you call pointing out hypocrisy...  It's a perfectly legitimate question to ask how others would have done in this situation. I, very much, doubt it would have been much better.  If you remember:

 

Pointing out hypocrisy is fair enough,but read many posts on this forum it is not used so much to point out hypocrisy but to deflect from other arguments.

example...

Why did the US take so long with testing etc ?

What would the democrats have done better.Trump was called racist etc etc.

There is absolutely no answer to the question there.

 

That`s not pointing out hypocrisy that`s just distraction.

Answer the question then call out the hypocrisy.

 

33 minutes ago, J0ker said:

Stay at home orders do not make you safe.  Although contrary to what many Toytown members believe you're more likely to get an airborne virus indoors than outdoors where it's spread out.

Yes but however a lockdown as such is not meant so much to keep you indoors it is to keep you out of contact with other people.

Sweden is interesting in that respect where they have no lockdown as such but everyone due to the way their society is respects distancing etc,whereas in many countries when they do let people out or even during a lockdown people just totally disregard it.

31 minutes ago, J0ker said:

You seem to be under the delusion that unemployment doesn't kill.

It certainly does.

However that is a whole other thread.In the last 10 years the economy has gotten better and better and many people richer and richer,yet we have seen a rise in foodbanks,homelessness etc.

Why ?

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54 minutes ago, J0ker said:

The problem I see is that politicians and so called experts break their own "stay home" rules.  Remember Neil Ferguson, the so called British expert who praised the Chinese quarantine model with people being dragged from their homes and loaded into trucks?  Well it turns out he broke quarantine and met his girlfriend while HE HAD CORONA.

 

Neil Ferguson, UK coronavirus advisor, resigns after breaking lockdown rules

 

Stay at home orders do not make you safe.  Although contrary to what many Toytown members believe you're more likely to get an airborne virus indoors than outdoors where it's spread out.  It's like telling little Johnny not to squat because the weight will hurt his back.  Well it's also dangerous not to go to the gym; if you sit around all day watching TV and Youtube you risk clogged arteries for example.

 

I've lost count of how many politicians/celebrities broke their own rules.

 

 

 

I am struggling to understand how this post from you relates to the quote you included from @Rushrush did you choose the wrong quote by any chance?

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1 hour ago, J0ker said:

The problem I see is that politicians and so called experts break their own "stay home" rules.  Remember Neil Ferguson, the so called British expert who praised the Chinese quarantine model with people being dragged from their homes and loaded into trucks?  Well it turns out he broke quarantine and met his girlfriend while HE HAD CORONA.

 

His hypocrisy + affront to Victorian values via sleeping with a married woman in an "open marriage" gets the public's attention.

 

The fact that his forecasts were off by an order of magnitude and decisions made on the basis of his terrible forecasts have done and will continue to do enormous economic damage is uninteresting to the public.  

 

1 hour ago, J0ker said:

Stay at home orders do not make you safe.  Although contrary to what many Toytown members believe you're more likely to get an airborne virus indoors than outdoors where it's spread out.  It's like telling little Johnny not to squat because the weight will hurt his back.  Well it's also dangerous not to go to the gym; if you sit around all day watching TV and Youtube you risk clogged arteries for example.

 

I've lost count of how many politicians/celebrities broke their own rules.

 

Most of TT simply worships authority.   Continuous Stockholm Syndrome.  

 

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If you stay at home, and have therefore no contact whatsoever with anyone with Covid, how is that not keeping you safe?

 

No-one is suggesting that staying inside with many virus filled dudes is safe. 

 

How odd.

 

I agree that being outside in the fresh air is brilliant, and do not agree with the folk on here who have become incensed with others who go and enjoy the big outdoors. Unless they are going somewhere busy and peopley, in which case that is a bad plan.

 

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2 hours ago, balticus said:

 

It is large companies and small shops.   Both are important.   

 

By the way

 

 

Screenshot 2020-05-06 at 08.02.35.png

Today's Swedish numbers just in: we are at a plateau, not going down, at least not significantly. Last 3 days over 84 deaths per day. I will post some charts later. What is very clear already is that not only the peak was much higher than other countries, the length of the epidemic is becoming much longer. If we assume an exponential rise followed by a linear drop like in Italy or Spain, this will take months to go away.

 

BTW the chart you posted does not smooth the data enough, makes it hard to see the true picture and you are just guessing from the peaks.

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13 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

you are just guessing from the peaks.

 

It's called "cherry picking" and s/he does it all the time.

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34 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

from the peaks.

 

And you might wonder why that up and down is in periods of one week.   I have no idea of course, but I just wonder if the swed-virus does not work during the weekends.

 

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29 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

And you might wonder why that up and down is in periods of one week.   I have no idea of course, but I just wonder if the swed-virus does not work during the weekends.

 

Regional healthcare system justifies part of the issue, then almost no deaths reported during the weekend, so I guess most people just don´t care and report only on Monday.

I wonder how hard it would be to set it up.

Even a shared Excel/Google sheet, with mandatory daily reports, would be better than this. And they had 2 months to improve it... smells of incompetence on the top level.

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Another interesting subject is the importance of smartphones in today's world.  After countries like China and Singapore developed apps to try to triangulate the potentially infected people, the world decided that sounded like a good idea.   Then Apple and Google partnered and started to develop their Contact-Tracing API, which would allow to built apps on top of it to trace the virus and to have a centralized database.   But some people (some universities around the world) didn't trust Apple and Google and started a decentralized solution.  And UK, being UK, decided to do their own thing instead of working with other people and they just realized that without Google and Apple it is going to be difficult to make something as good as what they are making.

 

But the whole thing is interesting, showing the importance that smartphones might have in the future and what are the implications of having their operating system under the control of two giant private companies.   And how are we going to value privacy in the future.

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Have just been reading this BBC article:

 

Coronavirus: EU facing 'deep and uneven recession'

 

Quote

The European Union faces a deep and uneven recession, according to a new forecast from the EU's Commission.

 

The bloc's executive arm predicts a recovery in 2021 but warns that the uncertainty is exceptionally high.

 

The Commission predicts a decline in economic activity this year of 7.5%, and slightly more than that for the eurozone.

 

It warns the outcome could be worse if the pandemic turns out to be longer or more severe than currently envisaged.

 

Have also read the comments under the article (many of the posters and those marking the posts up and down seem to be pro-Brexit/anti-EU) and this one in particular (comment No 27) has me even more worried. Although I have no knowledge of economics, I have already been worrying about the possibility of the banks collapsing and/or the euro collapsing and/or the EU collapsing:

 

Quote

The worst of this is that the Euro zone banks are going to collapse. They are the next domino which sends the global economy down. ECB can solve a short term liquidity crisis, but they can't make up for collapsed revenue and an inability to make long term obligations.

 

:mellow:

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2 minutes ago, Lorelei said:

Have just been reading this BBC article:

 

Coronavirus: EU facing 'deep and uneven recession'

 

 

Have also read the comments under the article (many of the posters and those marking the posts up and down seem to be pro-Brexit/anti-EU) and this one in particular (comment No 27) has me even more worried. Although I have no knowledge of economics, I have already been worrying about the possibility of the banks collapsing and/or the euro collapsing and/or the EU collapsing:

 

 

 

This is not a liquidity crisis.

 

Banks can borrow from the ECB at close to 0%. In some cases the ECB will actually give banks money for borrowing.

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9 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Well, flu immunity only lasts 6 months or less. You don´t get immune forever. And this virus is quite different from other corona viruses, you can´t rely on immunity. And how much herd immunity do you need?

Flu immunity is irrelevant as this isn´t a flu-relative but a corona -relative. And for other corona viruses immunity lasts between 9 months and 3 years. Why should it be different for this one? According to RKI 60-70% should suffice for herd immunity (which I understand to mean R below 1).

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5 hours ago, Keleth said:

Why did the US take so long with testing etc ?

Because they refused to use the test which was made availble on 16 Jan by Drosten´s lab (btw. free of license fees) and approved by the WHO and decided to rather devekop their own. Just as the UK (btw. today Boris announced in Parliament that they aim at achieving testing capacity of 200000/week).

 

4 hours ago, balticus said:

Most of TT simply worships authority.

Yeah, like Trump´s.

 

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