9,809 posts in this topic

10 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

That is a marginal part of the economy, not the bulk.

Small businesses pay wages and salaries which allow people to pay rent and buy things.   Their closure will be catastrophic.   Any reduction in bankruptcies and closures will help. 

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Bragging about predicting deaths in Wuhan, when now we known the numbers are off by at least 5x... not a good start...

He makes some bold statements.   Not sure why you would choose to focus on that. 

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Also the article title is wrong, he does recognize that the beginning of epidemic is exponential, but then slows down.

Happens regardless of the lockdown or distancing regime according to him. 

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This is fairly obvious and has been observed in many countries. People get scared, social distance kicks in, then stops being exponential. Nothing worthy here, move along...

 

Watch for those numbers out of Sweden to confirm.  

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Just now, RenegadeFurther said:

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What economy are you talking about?

Restaurants, hairdressers, small shops, etc. They employ lots, but it´s not a large part of the economy. As in most European countries these people have some sort of legal protection and even state help, as long as the lockdown is not half a year, it´s not that big impact. And most services are still running, with minor impact.

The big impact is on primary and secondary sector.

 

Sweden choices only managed to reduce the impact in services which are not the bulk of the economy, so saying they are saving the economy is completely unproven. Their forecasts indicate similar GDP losses as other countries, so their "big advantage" might be meaningless.

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7 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

@MikeMelga

Yes, I didn't say all at once. Their stock will certainly shoot up for one thing. They won't make it too cheap because they will cry about the R & D costs like they always do even though they always have labs running as part of their normal costs.

 

 

Interesting article on my point:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-bullish-stance-gilead-sciences-134625675.html

 

Although it is up by 25% since the beginning of the crisis, the analyst in the end says that the potential increase of revenue does not add much to the overall company revenue, as it is already a large company.

 

They can´t make it too expensive for a simple reason: if they do it, countries could just shut them off, make their own version and claim national emergency. Why would they risk losing 95% of their assured revenue in that country?

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7 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Restaurants, hairdressers, small shops, etc. They employ lots, but it´s not a large part of the economy. As in most European countries these people have some sort of legal protection and even state help, as long as the lockdown is not half a year, it´s not that big impact. And most services are still running, with minor impact.

The big impact is on primary and secondary sector.

 

Sweden choices only managed to reduce the impact in services which are not the bulk of the economy, so saying they are saving the economy is completely unproven. Their forecasts indicate similar GDP losses as other countries, so their "big advantage" might be meaningless.

 

Every country is different. Tourism (restaurants. hotels, small shops) accounts for 13.3% of Italian GDP for Greece maybe 16%. It is a big impact for these countries.

 

I think Tourism accounts for 11% of the US GDP. 

 

Not sure where your getting your info from.

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38 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Every country is different. Tourism (restaurants. hotels, small shops) accounts for 13.3% of Italian GDP for Greece maybe 16%. It is a big impact for these countries.

 

I think Tourism accounts for 11% of the US GDP. 

 

Not sure where your getting your info from.

How much tourism are you going to get in a pandemic? If you have a lockdown no one is allowed to visit and if you don't lockdown nobody wants to visit. Those services/industries were screwed regardless of what any individual country might do.

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43 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Every country is different. Tourism (restaurants. hotels, small shops) accounts for 13.3% of Italian GDP for Greece maybe 16%. It is a big impact for these countries.

 

I think Tourism accounts for 11% of the US GDP. 

 

Not sure where your getting your info from.

As @keith2011 said, Sweden´s (no) lockdown policy does not solve tourism problem. Harder or softer lockdown is irrelevant: no tourism until this passes. Even in Sweden, although they go to restaurants, they stopped going to tourist places. Skiing resorts are 85% closed, and those still open don´t have many people there.

 

BTW, global tourism directly is only 3.3% of global GDP.

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Well, latest lockdown lifts in Germany show something interesting: around 4 weeks of hard lockdown, followed by 4 weeks of slow return to normal.

Daily deaths are very low.

In the meantime, Sweden had many more deaths, just so people could leave kids in the school and dine out!

 

EDIT: to put it in perspective, the same approach here, at the same number of deaths per 1M, would have caused 24.000 deaths, instead of 7000. Worth it, so people can dine out?

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3 hours ago, CiaraDoran said:

 

The person who discovers a vaccine will be a billionaire that is certain

 

Well the UK is says because this is a golbal pandemic, that if the UK vaccine is the winner, then that vaccine will be sold at cost + delivery costs. ie No money will be made out of this. I have not heard what the US will do if they get the best working vaccine or any of the countries for that matter

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thoughout this thing ive thought, ive got a 7 and a 3 year old. Apart from working from home, and wearing a mask in shops..

 

 

life isn't that much different : ) 

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4 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

They can´t make it too expensive for a simple reason: if they do it, countries could just shut them off, make their own version and claim national emergency.

 

They won't need to make it too expensive. The sheer volume will bring in billions. Think about it - almost everyone on earth getting the vaccine except for the stupid anti-vaxxers.

 

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Well the UK is says because this is a golbal pandemic, that if the UK vaccine is the winner, then that vaccine will be sold at cost + delivery costs. ie No money will be made out of this.

 

I'll believe that when I see it.

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8 hours ago, jeba said:

On the other hand most other countries will look like idiots if there is no vaccine / treatment and they have sacrificed their economies for nothing.

I still can`t see how Sweden hope to be at herd immunity "within weeks" without a vaccine and no one being really certain if once you've had it you`re immune to getting it again.

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5 hours ago, jeremytwo said:

We do not need a vaccine.

Of course you fucking do.

Even if you find a cure for it why would you then not worry about a vaccine for it ?

Yes let`s admit people to hospital,cure them instead of having a vaccine that stops you getting the disease in the first fucking place.

5 hours ago, jeremytwo said:

Bill Gates has no medical authority and can't even keep viruses off a PC.

And you can`t even keep away from the bottle but it doesn`t stop you touting yourself as some sort of insider with knowledge about things instead of just sitting at home stewing in your own piss.

In the conspiracy thread on this forum there is a few examples of how conspiracy theories have ruined peoples lives but you don`t even give a fuck you just keep on peddling your total and utter bullshit which you copy from some utter fucking moron pretending to be "in the know".You keep getting your "Intel briefings" ffs intel briefings from a public website,serioulsy how utter moronic are you.You are no better than pond life.Actually pond life lifts you up into being some sort of sentient being but you`re not even that.

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6 hours ago, Keleth said:

I still can`t see how Sweden hope to be at herd immunity "within weeks" without a vaccine and no one being really certain if once you've had it you`re immune to getting it again.

Who spoke of getting herd immunity within weeks? And why should this corona virus be different from the other corona viruses which all generate immunity (for a few years only though)? There is no reason to think it will be different.

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12 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Worth it, so people can dine out?

 

The point is to minimize economic contraction and damage to supply chains not to keep people entertained.

 

When that nail salon and flower shop don't pay rent, the owner doesn't make payments on the loans, and so on, and so on, and so on.    The multiplicative effect of money exacerbates growth, but if someone misses a payment, it exacerbates the contraction.  

 

You seem to be solely focused on the first order effects.   I tend to believe that the second and third order effects will be more brutal.   

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Just now, balticus said:

When that nail salon and flower shop don't pay rent, the owner doesn't make payments on the loans, and so on, and so on, and so on.    The multiplicative effect of money exacerbates growth, but if someone misses a payment, it exacerbates the contraction.  

 

You seem to be solely focused on the first order effects.   I tend to believe that the second and third order effects will be more brutal.   

 

Sorry, that is still meaningless compared to the rest of the economy, which closes independently of lockdown strategy. Example: Volvo not manufacturing and selling one single car equates to dozens and dozens of nail salon rents. You are too focused on what is around you, the economy is much, much more than small shops.

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 It's amazing that we have a person in the White House so willing to kill people for money. Economies can be rebuilt,but people can never be brought back from the dead. In which Trump commits to making a reality of the prediction that is his disastrous polling.

 

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"Do you believe that's the reality we're facing that -- that lives will be lost to reopen the country?” Muir asked Trump during an interview in Phoenix, Arizona, on the president's first major trip in months since the virus outbreak worsened.

"It's possible there will be some because you won't be locked into an apartment or a house or whatever it is," Trump said. "But at the same time, we're going to practice social distancing, we're going to be washing hands, we're going to be doing a lot of the things that we've learned to do over the last period of time."

In addition to the president's acknowledgement directly to Muir that it's "possible there will be some" deaths as a cost of reopening the country, the president also acknowledged during his visit to Arizona that there will be some who are "affected badly" by the decision.

“Will some people be affected? Yes. Will some people be affected badly? Yes. But we have to get our country open and we have to get it open soon,” Trump said, directly acknowledging there will be a real, negative human cost in prioritizing an economic revival over a more cautious approach in favor of public health. But even as the president advocates for a return to normal economic business, the nation's governors remain in control of decision-making for their respective states.

The president's cost-benefit analysis is exemplified in his decision to move forward with disbanding the task force of medical experts in the weeks ahead, as he declares that "our country is now in the next stage of the battle."

 

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2 hours ago, jeba said:

Who spoke of getting herd immunity within weeks? And why should this corona virus be different from the other corona viruses which all generate immunity (for a few years only though)? There is no reason to think it will be different.

Well, flu immunity only lasts 6 months or less. You don´t get immune forever. And this virus is quite different from other corona viruses, you can´t rely on immunity. And how much herd immunity do you need? 60%? 95%? How long would it take to reach 60% or 95%? Perhaps longer than a vaccine. Are you still immune if the virus mutates too much?

There are many parameters on immunity, it´s not just having it or not.

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4 hours ago, jeba said:

Who spoke of getting herd immunity within weeks? And why should this corona virus be different from the other corona viruses which all generate immunity (for a few years only though)? There is no reason to think it will be different.

One of balticus` earlier posts based on some report.

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