9,374 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, CiaraDoran said:

I was pinning it down to higher amounts of testing, but your theory definitely makes sense ! 

What wouldn´t make sense though is if this was not done in other countries which have enough doctors to do it.

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1 minute ago, fraufruit said:

 

Except to save lives.

If their death rates are just as high they wouldn´t have done that. That´s the point.

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But it isn't the point, is it? The point is whether during the corona months they had functioning health systems or not. That is the actual point.

 

Death rates are not the crux of the matter, although people keep trying to push them as though they are.

 

The point is trying to find a balance between carnage in the medical system and economic carnage. 

 

It's a bugger.

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2 minutes ago, kiplette said:

Death rates are not the crux of the matter,

 

I do not like the sound of what is going on in the UK, that care homes do not seem to hospitalising patients.  OK, of course if someone elderly gets really bad breathing problems, ventilation is really brutal and hopeless.  But there are lots of earlier treatments that help people.  

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16 minutes ago, kiplette said:

The point is trying to find a balance between carnage in the medical system and economic carnage. 

What the right balance is can only be known once that tragedy is over. Because only then will we know wether the lockdown will have saved lives. If there will be no vaccine the lockdown will turn out to look foolish.

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1 hour ago, jeba said:

On the other hand most other countries will look like idiots if there is no vaccine / treatment and they have sacrificed their economies for nothing.

Who says things will fare better for Sweden with their partial lockdown? People assume that their economy will be stronger than others, but that is still to be proven. They have a strong export side of the economy, and that is down, independently of lockdown. They are still forecasting unemployment up to 10% and a 10% drop in GDP! This is in line with what Portugal expects (actually, even slightly worst!).

 

Their assumptions are all most likely wrong:

  • "no lockdown" is good for the economy - unproven: their forecasts look similar to other countries. Exports and consumption are down for every country. Also if people don´t spend now, they will spend later.
  • "no lockdown" means we will develop herd immunity - unproven
  • "no lockdown" means we will suffer less in the 2nd wave - unproven, especially when an effective treatment comes
  • "people are responsible" - FALSE: children are not and elderly confined to retirement homes have no defense
  • "no lockdown" means more deaths now - proven
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In many places, it is the disrupted supply chain that is causing shortages of food, parts/chemicals to keep factories running, etc. Even in Sweden, production can't go full speed without supplies.

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52 minutes ago, jeba said:

What the right balance is can only be known once that tragedy is over. Because only then will we know wether the lockdown will have saved lives. If there will be no vaccine the lockdown will turn out to look foolish.

4 months after the outbreak, 108 vaccines being developed. 8 cleared for clinical trials. What are the odds this will completely fail? There will be a vaccine, but that is a long term solution, now we need an effective treatment to help in the next few months.

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47 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

"no lockdown" is good for the economy - unproven:

I´m credulous enough to believe that a lockdown is hurting the economy - even in the absence of proof.

 

48 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

"no lockdown" means we will develop herd immunity - unproven

but highly likely - even if unclear for how long.

 

49 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

"no lockdown" means we will suffer less in the 2nd wave - unproven, especially when an effective treatment comes

without a lockdown there will be no second wave. Only one which will of course be higher. And it´s IF a treatment comes, not merely when.

 

51 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

"no lockdown" means more deaths now - proven

It´s proven for now - not that it will make a difference in the long run. Unless there will be a treatment / vaccine I don´t think it will be much of a difference.

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49 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Who says things will fare better for Sweden with their partial lockdown? People assume that their economy will be stronger than others, but that is still to be proven. They have a strong export side of the economy, and that is down, independently of lockdown. They are still forecasting unemployment up to 10% and a 10% drop in GDP! This is in line with what Portugal expects (actually, even slightly worst!).

 

Small businesses, cafes, restaurants, flower shops, photo studios, dry cleaners, etc have a better chance of surviving than they would have with a complete shutdown.  

49 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

 

Their assumptions are all most likely wrong:

  • "no lockdown" is good for the economy - unproven: their forecasts look similar to other countries. Exports and consumption are down for every country. Also if people don´t spend now, they will spend later.

 

Anyone who was going out for dinner, a movie, a concert, and many other things will NOT make up the spending.   

 

49 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:
  • "no lockdown" means we will develop herd immunity - unproven
  • "no lockdown" means we will suffer less in the 2nd wave - unproven,

 

This crisis is an exercise in decision making under uncertainty.    

 

The bias is towards addressing first order effects, i.e. stopping the spread at the expense of second and third order effects.    The bias is towards immediate feedback rather than long term strategising. 

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3 hours ago, keith2011 said:

I seem to remember this was totally disproved some weeks ago when it was found the side effects of the drug on Covid 19 patients resulted in worse outcomes than the virus alone. Or is my memory failing?

 

There was a study at Veterans' Hospitals without a robust sample and not peer reviewed proffered as evidence that the Hydrochloroquine / Zinc cocktail was ineffective.  

 

New York was supposed to release  results last week.  

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20 minutes ago, CiaraDoran said:

 

The person who discovers a vaccine will be a billionaire that is certain

 

The pharmaceutical company for which the people work for who discover a vaccine will make billions.

 

FTFY

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17 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

Small businesses, cafes, restaurants, flower shops, photo studios, dry cleaners, etc have a better chance of surviving than they would have with a complete shutdown.  

 

Anyone who was going out for dinner, a movie, a concert, and many other things will NOT make up the spending.   

That is a marginal part of the economy, not the bulk.

 

8 minutes ago, balticus said:

Nobel Prize winning Scientist:  the COVID-19 epidemic was never exponential.

 

https://unherd.com/thepost/nobel-prize-winning-scientist-the-covid-19-epidemic-was-never-exponential/

 

Bragging about predicting deaths in Wuhan, when now we known the numbers are off by at least 5x... not a good start...

 

Also the article title is wrong, he does recognize that the beginning of epidemic is exponential, but then slows down. This is fairly obvious and has been observed in many countries. People get scared, social distance kicks in, then stops being exponential. Nothing worthy here, move along...

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2 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

 

The pharmaceutical company for which the people work for who discover a vaccine will make billions.

 

FTFY

I thought the same but then I read that if that company is already a very large pharma, it won´t impact much on their revenue. They will have social and political pressure to make it cheap, so in an analysis I saw a month ago, this would only mean 3-10% of revenue increase. Most of the benefits would come on the long run, due to brand recognition.

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3 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

That is a marginal part of the economy, not the bulk.

 

.

What economy are you talking about?

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25 minutes ago, CiaraDoran said:

The person who discovers a vaccine will be a billionaire that is certain

 

Well that was "their" plan but thanks to HCQ+Zinc+Azithromycin 3x cocktail it is going to fail.

 

22 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

There was a study at Veterans' Hospitals without a robust sample and not peer reviewed proffered as evidence that the Hydrochloroquine / Zinc cocktail was ineffective.  

 

New York was supposed to release  results last week.  

Balt - the Vets study was fraudulent because they did not administer Zinc Sulphate, only 2 out of the 3.

 

Here are the talking points the desperate MSM is being given to "debunk" CQ:

 

0a071ae2764a17aea71f6d22d9bb283478c5c9a5

 

They have to parrot like idiots "more deaths no benefits".

 

We do not need a vaccine. Noone will be a billionaire. Bill Gates has no medical authority and can't even keep viruses off a PC.

 

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@MikeMelga

Yes, I didn't say all at once. Their stock will certainly shoot up for one thing. They won't make it too cheap because they will cry about the R & D costs like they always do even though they always have labs running as part of their normal costs.

 

 

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