4,870 posts in this topic

3 hours ago, balticus said:

 

It may sound objective and rational, but such comparisons are as meaningless as comparing the number of deaths from gunshot in Chicago in 2020 or the number of car accident deaths.  

 

The mean and standard deviation + trends are known.   For coronavirus, they are not known, thus comparing apples to plums.  

 

Put yourself in a time machine back to the early 1980s and you could say the same thing about HIV.    Until those known unknowns and unknown unknowns can be quantified, the comparisons are not valid. 

 

 

Correct.   I have never suggested that panic is in order.    

 

Rejecting your comparison is not advocating for panic or suggesting that the world is about to end.   Rather, it is an argument that we simply do not know yet.  

Which is what I said.  We do not know yet but what we do know so far shows us there is no need to panic at this time.  We can indeed compare the rates of infection and fatalities at various points of the development of the epidemic.  We already know, for example, that it spreads faster than SARS and MERS but has a lower fatality rate.  Exactly zero experts would disagree with that.  

 

I guess there is some remote possibility that the virus will mutate and get a lot worse but we already do know quite a bit about it.  It will be bad, but it will not be the end of civilization.  

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1 hour ago, BradinBayern said:

Which is what I said.  We do not know yet but what we do know so far shows us there is no need to panic at this time.   Exactly zero experts would disagree with that.  

 

Why do you think that people should panic?   And why do you have such a low opinion of Detroit?  Baffling. 

Quote

 

I guess there is some remote possibility that the virus will mutate and get a lot worse but we already do know quite a bit about it.  It will be bad, but it will not be the end of civilization.  

 

How do you know that the probability is remote or quite high?   You don't.   

 

Here is an expert.  Completely incompetent to argue against restricting travel.  

 

 

 

 

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On 2/29/2020, 5:28:19, optimista said:

Apparently 80% of people are asymptomatic (I do wonder how they got a diagnosis) or have only mild symptoms. 15% have it bad and recover and a small percentage peg it, cos they were going to anyway.

 

What happened to common sense? When the killer really comes will they remember they cried wolf this time and carry on their merry way?

 

 

well your first observation is kinda telling - we are getting some information that doesn't quite make sense.

 

Further, the idea that this is only killing people who were on death's door anyway is not really accurate.  The only consistent factor I've seen so far is that it seems to kill those with heart disease and hypertension more than other groups.  So...a huge portion of those over 50 would be at highest risk? :)

 

But even that's not the limit - go look for photos of the "whistleblower" doc in China who died from corona at 34 years old - aside from the oxygen mask he's wearing he doesn't even look sick just a couple of days before he died.  Eyes are clear, good complexion, etc.  Other Chinese healthcare workers have died as well, some in their 20's. allegedly.  

 

I find it hard to understand this idea that there is a known death rate in spite of the fact that I've seen very few recovery rates published.  You can't tally a true death toll without knowing the recovery rate in tandem.  Well ok you CAN (this is what's wrong with statistics) but it's not really getting to the heart of things.

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3 hours ago, BradinBayern said:

Which is what I said.  We do not know yet but what we do know so far shows us there is no need to panic at this time.  We can indeed compare the rates of infection and fatalities at various points of the development of the epidemic.  We already know, for example, that it spreads faster than SARS and MERS but has a lower fatality rate.  Exactly zero experts would disagree with that.  

 

I guess there is some remote possibility that the virus will mutate and get a lot worse but we already do know quite a bit about it.  It will be bad, but it will not be the end of civilization.  

You are still way too optimistic. You forgot to say that not only it spreads faster than SARS and MERS, but also 2-3x faster than normal flu, while being around 30x more deadly.

 

I am not too pessimistic on mutations, as successful virus tend to be LESS deadly. Their goal is to survive and prosper, NOT to kill people.

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1 hour ago, lisa13 said:

 

well your first observation is kinda telling - we are getting some information that doesn't quite make sense.

 

Further, the idea that this is only killing people who were on death's door anyway is not really accurate.  The only consistent factor I've seen so far is that it seems to kill those with heart disease and hypertension more than other groups.  So...a huge portion of those over 50 would be at highest risk? :)

 

But even that's not the limit - go look for photos of the "whistleblower" doc in China who died from corona at 34 years old - aside from the oxygen mask he's wearing he doesn't even look sick just a couple of days before he died.  Eyes are clear, good complexion, etc.  Other Chinese healthcare workers have died as well, some in their 20's. allegedly.  

 

I find it hard to understand this idea that there is a known death rate in spite of the fact that I've seen very few recovery rates published.  You can't tally a true death toll without knowing the recovery rate in tandem.  Well ok you CAN (this is what's wrong with statistics) but it's not really getting to the heart of things.

 

 

this page shows recovery rates

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

of course its suspected many countries are hiding the infections as an example

Concerns raised over Indonesia's lab tests as country reports zero coronavirus cases

or do not really have the technology to address the virus

 

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6 hours ago, balticus said:

 

Why do you think that people should panic?   And why do you have such a low opinion of Detroit?  Baffling.

 

If this is supposed to be some sort of weird joke, I am not getting it.

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6 hours ago, balticus said:

 

Why do you think that people should panic?   And why do you have such a low opinion of Detroit?  Baffling. 

 

How do you know that the probability is remote or quite high?   You don't.   

 

Here is an expert.  Completely incompetent to argue against restricting travel.  

 

 

 

Umm, I am also arguing that people should not panic nor that there should be restrictions on travel.  Are you on drugs?  Your posts make zero sense.

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5 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

You are still way too optimistic. You forgot to say that not only it spreads faster than SARS and MERS, but also 2-3x faster than normal flu, while being around 30x more deadly.

 

I am not too pessimistic on mutations, as successful virus tend to be LESS deadly. Their goal is to survive and prosper, NOT to kill people.

Rates are much lower outside of Wuhan and outside of China.  Rates were also much higher earlier in the epidemic than they are now.

Quote

The overall CFR varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China).

In China, the overall CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17.3% for cases with symptom onset from 1-10 January) and has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February. "

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#who-report-02-20

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55 minutes ago, BradinBayern said:

Rates are much lower outside of Wuhan and outside of China.  Rates were also much higher earlier in the epidemic than they are now.

Numbers are still not statistically relevant, but let's look at Italy: at least 1700 infected, 34 dead. That's 2% mortality. Of course that there are many undetected, but there are also many people in critical situation, who will die.

 

This is in a first world country, where hospitals are not yet flooded and overwhelmed. There is no government cover up in Italy, like people claim that China is faking stats.

Let's not minimize it, it is at very least an order of magnitude deadlier than normal flu.

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3 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

That's 2% mortality. Of course that there are many undetected,

Which implies that letality (mortality is something different) is lower than 2 %.

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8 hours ago, BradinBayern said:

Umm, I am also arguing that people should not panic nor that there should be restrictions on travel. 

 

The WHO speaking out against restricted travel was pure incompetence.  

 

But why do you think people should panic?

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2 hours ago, jeba said:

Which implies that letality (mortality is something different) is lower than 2 %.

Hi jeba:  I don't know the word letality and it's not in my dictionary.  Any chance of an explanation? 

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26 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

The WHO speaking out against restricted travel was pure incompetence.  

 

But why do you think people should panic?

 

If you are 60+, or have an underlying condition like cardiovascular disease, a respiratory condition or diabetes, you have a higher risk of developing severe #COVID19. Try to avoid crowded areas, or places where you might interact with people who are sick. #coronavirus

 

Seems like a reason to panic.

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30 minutes ago, starkebogen said:

Hi jeba:  I don't know the word letality and it's not in my dictionary.  Any chance of an explanation? 

I've just realised it was a spelling mistake (lethality).  I wasn't trying to be smart, I was just curious and now I've made myself look really dumb.

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First COVID-19 positive in Berlin.   This morning I stopped in Lidl to buy the usual food for the day and it looked like it was ransacked, probably 2/3 of the stock was not there.

 

The common trend in the past years is to polarize everything, people choose between the two extreme sides of the spectrum and we have something like right now, a bunch of people saying that there is no reason to worry, every year people die, blah blah.  And the other ones thinking it is the end of the world.    Where the situation should be somewhere in the middle.   

 

You must be blind to think it is not a serious problem, I don't want to imagine what will happen if it gets out of control in Africa or South America.

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1 hour ago, Krieg said:

 This morning I stopped in Lidl to buy the usual food for the day and it looked like it was ransacked, probably 2/3 of the stock was not there.

 

 

 

This won't necessarily be caused by panic buying. I sometimes go to Lidl in Cologne and if I get there around 8am on a Monday then most of the stock is missing. If I wait until 11am or so then the shelves are full. I think they keep most of the stock in the storage area, warehouse, etc, and after they don't always replace the stock on Saturday afternoon/evening so have to replace it on Monday when they first open up after the weekend.

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11 minutes ago, warsteiner70 said:

 

This won't necessarily be caused by panic buying. I sometimes go to Lidl in Cologne and if I get there around 8am on a Monday then most of the stock is missing. 

 

I stop at that Lidl every single morning.  Never saw something like that, long weekend German panic is nothing compared to the current situation.  Basically there was not a single can of canned food, all H-Milk was gone, pasta and pasta sauce, frozen food, etc.   It looked like the (sometimes fake) pictures of Venezuela's supermarkets.

 

I was at Kaufland on Saturday afternoon and while you could see plenty of items were sold out, it was not that bad.  Maybe it depends from district to district.  Or maybe the panic increased in the late afternoon.

 

Edit:  It is already in the news:

 

https://www.suedkurier.de/region/kreis-konstanz/kreis-konstanz/Corona-Virus-in-der-Region-Hamsterkaeufe-und-leere-Supermarkt-Regale-Ein-Arzt-warnt-vor-Panik;art372432,10456478

 

 

https://www.stimme.de/heilbronn/nachrichten/region/Corona-Hysterie-fuehrt-zu-leergeraeumten-Supermarkt-Regalen;art140897,4329336

 

 

https://www.niederlausitz-aktuell.de/cottbus/81343/hamsterkaeufe-wegen-coronavirus-cottbuser-supermaerkte-teilweise-leergekauft.html?rCH=2

 

 

https://www.lokalkompass.de/stadtspiegel-kamen/c-politik/wie-sinnvoll-sind-hamsterkaeufe_a1316292

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