3,080 posts in this topic

 

On 1/24/2020, 8:49:24, BradinBayern said:

Worldwide the coronavirus has killed somethng around 25 people.  Meanwhile the regular flu has killed 25,000 in Germany alone.  I am not sure what makes the corona virus so much worse, but I haven't been following it that closely.  After the press hyped the Bird Flu so much has made me sceptical.  Doesn't hurt to be careful, though. 

This statement is very misleading:

a) the new virus has only been around for a few weeks, not a full season

b ) the number of people infected is several orders of magnitude smaller than the number of people infected by regular flu, as it is still spreading

c) 25.000 deaths was a completely anomalous year, your own article mentions that a normal year only has hundreds of deaths.

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At that time, an estimated 25,100 people died from influenza, as the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) in Berlin announced. Such a high number of deaths is therefore very rare, in other years there were only a few hundred cases.

 

What it matters is survival percentage. And from what I've read, this virus is much more deadly than the previously existing ones.

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On 1/24/2020, 8:57:32, LostBetweenCountries said:

 

I mostly disinfect because I don't want anyone's germs. Be it this 'new' virus, the flu or the common cold. People are nasty. But yea I probably wouldn't fly to Wuhan China right about now. 

People are nasty? I bet you're fun at parties. Good luck with your OCD. 

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On 1/24/2020, 7:19:24, LostBetweenCountries said:

One of my managers is freaking out thinking this is THE virus that will wipe out a large part of the world population. 

 

Thoughts? 

 

 

:lol:

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According to BBC

 

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The coronavirus has killed at least 56 people and infected almost 2,000 since its discovery in the city of Wuhan.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51249208

 

56 out of 2000 is 2.8% although by many of the 2000, the illness has not yet run it's course so some of the 2000 will likely die as well.  

 

A few days ago, they were guessing at  https://news.yahoo.com/chinas-coronavirus-has-the-same-death-rate-as-the-spanish-flu-pandemic-that-killed-50-m-people-151608803.html  that the death rate might be around the same as the Spanish flu which they thought about 2%.

 

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Does anyone here think there is something Joe Public is not being told?

 

The Chinese have form when it comes to massaging figures. Maybe this is Mother Nature's next large scale cull. 

 

5000 deaths from this would look insignificant compared to road traffic accident deaths but a good 500 million deaths would be a rather large dent in the world population. 

 

22 minutes ago, LeonG said:

... that the death rate might be around the same as the Spanish flu which they thought about 2%.

 

Let's hope it's not similar to the Spanish Flu. As we know that had a tendency to kill younger and fitter people.

 

Nearly half of the victims were aged between 20 and 40 years old. 

 

If the snowflake generation get culled we will never hear the fucking end of it! 

 

:lol:

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31 minutes ago, hellfire99 said:

Does anyone here think there is something Joe Public is not being told?

 

The Chinese have form when it comes to massaging figures. Maybe this is Mother Nature's next large scale cull. 

 

5000 deaths from this would look insignificant compared to road traffic accident deaths but a good 500 million deaths would be a rather large dent in the world population.

The Chinese are renowned for not telling the truth and for smothering any form of whistleblowing. You also have the massive industrialisation, the propensity to cut corners and the very high levels of industrial farming on contaminated land. Saw a programme a couple of weeks ago where the Chinese admit that something like 70% of their waterways are polluted. Take all  that into account and there is a lot the Chinese aren't saying like how exactly did this virus crossover from animals to humans. IIRC the SARS virus came out of China as well.

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51 minutes ago, hellfire99 said:

If the news is to be believed, China is set to build a 1000 bed hospital in 10 days to deal with the crisis. 

 

They did something similar near Bejing during the SARS outbreak.  It looked more like a field hospital but it worked well.

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1 hour ago, hellfire99 said:

I'll be OK, though. I have my Brexit stockpile of Marmite and HP Brown sauce. 

Hopefully the best before date will be after the end of the transition period.

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14 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

 

This statement is very misleading:

a) the new virus has only been around for a few weeks, not a full season

b ) the number of people infected is several orders of magnitude smaller than the number of people infected by regular flu, as it is still spreading

c) 25.000 deaths was a completely anomalous year, your own article mentions that a normal year only has hundreds of deaths.

 

What it matters is survival percentage. And from what I've read, this virus is much more deadly than the previously existing ones.

I disagree.  We do not know where this virus is going, yes.  I never stated otherwise.  However we should also not panic.  The Swine flu and the Bird flu were also very deadly, but did not spread as was predicted.  The press had a field day with both regardless.

 

I used the last season where we had full data available and yes, it was anomalous but was it also hyped like this flu is being hyped?  Be honest, had you ever heard those figures before I posted them?  

 

A normal year has "only" hundreds of deaths in Germany alone - not worldwide.  Worldwide the number ranges from   290 000 to 650 000 per year.  https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal)

 

We are very far away from that.  I do not predict the end of civilization itself which was in response to the OP's boss' statements.

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14 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

this virus is much more deadly than the previously existing ones

Nope.

“What we have seen with this [current] coronavirus is [nearly] 30 casualties out of 900 cases,” Dr. Mishra notes. “So with simple math, the mortality rate is about 3% for this virus. Most of the deaths have been older people who already have underlying illnesses or they are old and their immunity is not strong.”

Friday morning, former Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told CNBC this as well, noting that while the flu-like virus is probably more contagious than SARS was, it’s likely less severe.   https://www.survivornet.com/articles/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-survivornet-shares-the-facts-to-help-cancer-survivors-understand-the-risks/

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3 hours ago, French bean said:

Take all  that into account and there is a lot the Chinese aren't saying like how exactly did this virus crossover from animals to humans. IIRC the SARS virus came out of China as well.

I read that the Chinese authorities now forbid the sale and consumption of animals like snakes, peacocks and badgers. These were also traded on the fish market in Wuhan where the virus is believed to originate.

 

Perhaps the Chinese should stop eating all these wild animals and implement proper Western hygiene standards. Implement regulations on how to keep livestock.  Inspections. Etc.

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There are several comments out of china that should raise the concern. They are already indicating that people are contagious before symptoms and symptoms are 1 to 14 days after exposure. They are also already saying the virus is rapidly mutating and transmission is becoming easier. In addition they are already saying they are out of supplies that does not seem to be a few thousand exposures. No reason to panic but a reason to be somewhat concerned for sure. When china says a situation is grave... do the math.

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1 hour ago, lunasuenos said:

There are several comments out of china that should raise the concern. They are already indicating that people are contagious before symptoms and symptoms are 1 to 14 days after exposure. They are also already saying the virus is rapidly mutating and transmission is becoming easier. In addition they are already saying they are out of supplies that does not seem to be a few thousand exposures. No reason to panic but a reason to be somewhat concerned for sure. When china says a situation is grave... do the math.

 

Agree, I'm also somewhat concerned that I have not seen anything on the means of transmission, only earlier an article saying that surgical masks would be not be effective against it. Given that they are now saying it can be spread before symptoms show suggests it is not the result of airborn dispertion from coughing but how then?

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On 1/26/2020, 6:59:29, keith2011 said:

 

Agree, I'm also somewhat concerned that I have not seen anything on the means of transmission, only earlier an article saying that surgical masks would be not be effective against it. Given that they are now saying it can be spread before symptoms show suggests it is not the result of airborn dispertion from coughing but how then?

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2231535-can-an-n95-face-mask-protect-you-from-catching-the-new-coronavirus/

They don´t offer full protection, but certainly better than none.

 

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On a more serious note. Yesterday I had to accompany someone to a cardiologist. In the waiting area was somebody sitting visibly feeling unwell. Since I know that person I asked what was going on and got the answer "am not feeling well and having high fever". So had asked sibling (seems to be one of the doctors there) to check it out. While waiting for test results was placed in the waiting area. Grand plan. While I really dont think that there was acute danger of Corona I still felt that even if it was just a normal flu  or whatever it was very inconsiderate to place that person in the waiting area where apart from me and the person I had accompanied (an elderly person and therefore more prone to  being at risks of catching a real flu and having more of it) there were 2 others waiting for their appointment. All of us were not highly interested in getting part of any infection whatever it may have been. So by now I am really slightly concerned that some medics are not taking things serious.

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