4,993 posts in this topic

2 hours ago, balticus said:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

Sweden did not lock down and is expected to reach "herd immunity" within weeks.   

Reach something not proven to happen? Some top virologist said that if herd immunity does happen, it would take at least 60% of the population to be infected. This means, with a 10% fatality rate, 600.000 deaths. They have 2000. So definitely no herd immunity for years, at this rate.

 

They are under-testing and under-reporting deaths. But their people are not stupid and they started self-isolating. And this is in an easy country to self isolate! The population density is very low, something that Belgium does not have.

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4 hours ago, balticus said:

...

 

Sweden has a lower rate of cases per capita than Germany.  

 

 

...

 

Sweden did not lock down and is expected to reach "herd immunity" within weeks.   

 

 

How can these two sentences be true at the same time? 

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Quote

The doctor who led the federal agency involved in developing a coronavirus vaccine said on Wednesday that he was removed from his post after he pressed for rigorous vetting of hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malaria drug embraced by President Trump as a coronavirus treatment, and that the administration has put “politics and cronyism ahead of science.”

source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/us/coronavirus-live-coverage.html#link-3fb57dec

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29 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

This means, with a 10% fatality rate, 600.000 deaths.

However, the fataliy rate is much lower. More like 0.37% (Gangelt study) - 0.53 % (France).

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3 hours ago, bramble said:

 

I'm following the guidelines. It's one of several ways of cleaning and sanitising it, as it's like using a hanky twice, which is not the recommended thing to do. You're also not supposed to use the paper masks twice, are you? You're supposed to throw them away.

This type is available at most Apotheke near us for around 10-15€ for 10. The advice is that they can be reused after putting  in the oven for 30 minutes at 70-90 degrees. Temperature advised varies between Apotheken. So far, works fine. 

 

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2 hours ago, Krieg said:

 

How can these two sentences be true at the same time? 

 

They can't. That's why people who don't understand scientific terms should not use them. That's about the dumbest thing I've read this week and I read the Atlanta Journal and Constitution every day. Even her own article reflects that Sweden has not been testing at a high rate and cases are increasing as they increase testing. Even so, Fraufruit's point that there is no indication that exposure equals immunity with COVID-19 is still valid.

 

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1 hour ago, jeba said:

However, the fataliy rate is much lower. More like 0.37% (Gangelt study) - 0.53 % (France).

Sorry, that makes no sense. 0.37% is only 3x the fatality of the flu, meaning we would barely notice it. At the same time hospitals are crowded in many countries.

Another way to see it: that would mean that 20% of Belgium was already infected. That is way too much for such a short time, especially considering the lockdown.

Or in Sweden case: it would mean 5% were already infected. As herd immunity would need at least 60%, they would still be very far from herd immunity, and that 22.000 more people would need to die there before they reach that value.

 

Gangelt study is way too small to draw conclusions. 7 people died there. That is not statistically relevant. They claim 15% infected. Maybe they were mostly young people. Just wishful thinking.

 

My best guess is around 3%-5%. We see almost 15% in some countries, but that just means they are not testing enough.

 

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2 hours ago, Krieg said:

 

How can these two sentences be true at the same time? 

They can if Germany is closer to reaching herd immunity than Sweden.

 

Does anyone know which European country has the highest population per capita?

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3 minutes ago, Dembo said:

Does anyone know which European country has the highest population per capita?

 

Germany has 83 million people per capita, which is the highest population in the EU of people per capita.

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24 minutes ago, Dembo said:

...the highest population per capita?

Pardon me??

 

What does that mean? Yes, I am only an arts graduate.

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7 minutes ago, Feierabend said:

Well, I do hope they all have their heads ... !!

 

I ran with that assumption; however, German citizens/residents could be here in this very thread posting without a head. 

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2 hours ago, Krieg said:

 

How can these two sentences be true at the same time? 

 

Active cases versus cases without symptoms.

 

The Nature piece lays out the Swedish strategy pretty well.  

 

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26 minutes ago, optimista said:

Pardon me??

 

What does that mean? Yes, I am only an arts graduate.

It's a trick question, though I should have said "number of people per capita". Every country has the same number of people per capita: i.e. 1.

 

Unless some don't have heads ;-) But then they probably shouldn't be counted.

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56 minutes ago, Dembo said:

They can if Germany is closer to reaching herd immunity than Sweden.

 

There is no proven immunity to this virus so far. Geez! I'm not saying it again.

 

You're welcome. B)

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1 hour ago, CincyInDE said:

 

Germany has 83 million people per capita, which is the highest population in the EU of people per capita.

 

I call BS! It's 1 person per capita. Get your numbers right! :D

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1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

Sorry, that makes no sense. 0.37% is only 3x the fatality of the flu, meaning we would barely notice it.

No, because Corona is more contagious but has lower morbidity, meaning that there are a lot of infected people who don´t even realise they are infected. Yesterday Kekulé discussed a report of a hotel which was used as a refugee camp where there were 148 positive cases (or 148 refugees and not all, but a large part of them, he didn´t make himself perfectly clear on that) testet positive but not a single one showed symptoms (as of min 25:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbYetjdSNlQ&t=1811s )
Streeck, the virologist who headed the Gangelt study claims it was representative (of the area, not of Germany) and I see no reason to not believe him.

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4 hours ago, BethAnnBitt said:

I was at 4 different Apothekes yesterday and got several different answers to that very question.   One person said you can use this one for the day and another said you can use it for 4 different 2 hour shopping trips (BTW his ID tag said Herr Dr. Something).  One paper type was supposedly good for 30 hours and could be sterilized in the oven!  Müller was selling paper masks for 15 Euros with no instructions and 2 workers gave 2 opposite answers as to whether they were reusable. Prices were all over the place across the Apothekes.  Needless to say it was an interesting fact finding mission.

 

2 hours ago, emkay said:

This type is available at most Apotheke near us for around 10-15€ for 10. The advice is that they can be reused after putting  in the oven for 30 minutes at 70-90 degrees. Temperature advised varies between Apotheken. So far, works fine. 

 

 

I was replying to a poster, who was questioning the sense of cleaning a face mask. Yet I see that you both are also advised to sanitise your paper masks (which are normally throwaway masks after a single usage), probably due to the fact that these masks are in short supply. I'm wondering how often you can bake these things in the oven before they become useless. 

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1 hour ago, Dembo said:

They can if Germany is closer to reaching herd immunity than Sweden.

 

Does anyone know which European country has the highest population per capita?


Aside from small states like Vatican, Monaco and Gibraltar, countries with the highest population density are Belgium and Netherlands. Israel's population density is close to that of Netherlands (416/420 people/sq. km).

 

Netherlands has 34842 cases and 4054 deaths, IL has 14592 cases and 191 deaths. I guess the reasons for lower number is relative isolation of the country (all borders closed except 2 crossings with Jordan and 1 with Egypt) as well as early closure of the borders and quarantine.

   
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