9,048 posts in this topic

50 minutes ago, jeba said:

We have that already - at least according to preliminary results of the study on Gangelt the fatality rate is below 0,4 %. That´s not good enough obviously to return to normal life.

Huh?? Please explain. No country has such good numbers, not even close. Best countries are doing around 3%.

 

50 minutes ago, jeba said:

 

Of course, how else do you achieve herd immunity given that a vaccine will not be available anytime soon? According to e. g. Kekulé we´d be lucky to have it by mid of next year - they tried already in the past to develop one against other corona viruses but failed. Granted, that was with less money and manpower available for it, of course.

Forget vaccine. That will take too much time. I´m talking a cure, not a vaccine.

A vaccine reduces infection rate. A cure improves survivability, independently of infection rate.

By cure I mean a set of procedures and drugs that drop fatality rate below 1% and also reduce severity of symptoms.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Huh?? Please explain. No country has such good numbers, not even close. Best countries are doing around 3%.

 

 

Germany has announced that the infection rate has dropped below 1.0

 

 

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Space Cowboy said:

 

Germany has announced that the infection rate has dropped below 1.0

 

Infection rate is different from fatality rate. That is very good news, because it means the virus is fading out. But it could go up very easily by relaxing quarantine.

My point is that if you have a "cure" that reduces complications and fatality rate below 1% (ideally <0.5%), you can have a large infection rate and still relax quarantine.

Or to simplify:

  • Infection rate can be reduced by social distance or a vaccine
  • fatality rate can be reduced by a "cure", i.e. set of procedures and drugs that reduce the effects or prevent death AFTER infection

 

A vaccine can take a long time and needs to be given to healthy people. Social distance cannot be used forever. So at some point you have to ignore infection rate and focus on fatality rate.

 

Timeline wise:

  • short term: social distance!
  • mid term: "cure"
  • long term: vaccine + cure
3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, fraufruit said:

Himself just informed me that Germany's infection rate is now 1 : 0.7. That's great news!

 

The number announced this morning.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Space Cowboy said:

Germany has announced that the infection rate has dropped below 1.0

No. That was the reproduction rate (how many people an infected person infects on average).

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

My point is that if you have a "cure" that reduces complications and fatality rate below 1% (ideally <0.5%), you can have a large infection rate and still relax quarantine.

You can do that even now. Just make wearing facemasks mandatory. Jena, the first German city to make waering facemasks mandatory in public 14 days ago (they suggested people sew their own as there was a lack of professional masks) hasn´t had a singe new infection since then. While there is no proof that this is a causal relationship it certainly supports the notion. Also, Korea and Hongkong, where wearing facemasks is universally practised managed to contain the virus even without a lockdown.
I don´t understand what government is still waiting for.

 

4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, jeba said:

I don´t understand what government is still waiting for.

 

Based on the thousands of people in Munich who have been wearing masks for weeks now, people with common sense don't need the guvment to tell them what is best.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, fraufruit said:

 

Based on the thousands of people in Munich who have been wearing masks for weeks now, people with common sense don't need the guvment to tell them what is best.

But only government can enforce that everybody wears a mask. Even those without common sense.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think even after this pandemic is over, whenever that may be, that wearing masks will be more common place in Europe, in some Asian countrys for example people wear masks when they have common colds and flus to protect the people around them. This might also become a common practice in Europe as people will ineviatably be more cautious after this experience 

3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, Space Cowboy said:

Maybe it´s translation thing. Here is today´s press conference during which it was announced (15 min;

Unterrichtung der Bundesregierung zur #Covid_19-Bekämpfung mit Gesundheitsminister @jensspahn, @rki_de-Präsident Lothar Wieler, @bfarm_de-Präsident @Karl_Broich &
@PEI_Germany -Präsident Klaus Cichutek.)

https://twitter.com/rki_de

 

Edit: I stand corrected. Seems the translation of the German term "Reproduktionsrate" is indeed "infection rate" and not reproduction rate as I had assumed.

 

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, fraufruit said:

Not to mention that NO ONE KNOWS if there is any immunity at all after having corona or how long it would last.

All the pundits I know of and who commented on it don´t see a reason to doubt that. Problem is that - based on the knowledge of other corona viruses - it will likely last only 0,5 - 2 years. But even if you catch it again it should be a milder course of disease.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, jeba said:

Maybe it´s translation thing. Here is today´s press conference during which it was announced (15 min;

Unterrichtung der Bundesregierung zur #Covid_19-Bekämpfung mit Gesundheitsminister @jensspahn, @rki_de-Präsident Lothar Wieler, @bfarm_de-Präsident @Karl_Broich &
@PEI_Germany -Präsident Klaus Cichutek.)

https://twitter.com/rki_de

 

Edit: I stand corrected. Seems the translation of the German term "Reproduktionsrate" is indeed "infection rate" and not reproduction rate as I had assumed.

 

 

 

I looked it up, and found the correct term (in English, anyway) is neither of those.  The correct term is Reproduction Ratio.

 

Since most people don’t understand what ratios are, it is apparently dumbed down to „infection rate.“

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, CiaraDoran said:

I think even after this pandemic is over, whenever that may be, that wearing masks will be more common place in Europe, in some Asian countrys for example people wear masks when they have common colds and flus to protect the people around them. This might also become a common practice in Europe as people will ineviatably be more cautious after this experience 

 

I would like to believe that, but based on what I have been seeing from my balcony this afternoon, many people have decided the crisis is over already.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Space Cowboy said:

 

 

I looked it up, and found the correct term (in English, anyway) is neither of those.  The correct term is Reproduction Ratio.

 

Since most people don’t understand what ratios are, it is apparently dumbed down to „infection rate.“

 

In Ireland it is referred to as reproduction number, in short R0. I got this information here. Ireland now has an R0 of <1, which is good. A few weeks ago the number was 3-4.

 

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe. My comment was just about terminology. Here, they refer to it as a "number", even if it IS a ratio.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now