6,123 posts in this topic

Agreed.

 

But governments still have to take into consideration the political, social and economic consequences of what these "lockdowns" are doing. 

 

Have they found the correct balance and would a 0.4% mortality rate warrant such a reaction?  Or are they overreacting based on misleading statistics? 

 

But like you say, if you feel like your lungs are full of broken glass, you probably don't give a shit. 

 

 

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People seem overly fixed on the death rate.

The death rate is not why countries have closed down,it`s how virulent the disease is and how many people require hospitalisation.

If we let it run rampant like they were going to do in the UK or like they did in Sweden then the health service gets overrun.You have even now people requiring hospital treatment which they can`t get including ops,imagine what it would have been like if there was no shutdown.

 

 

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2 hours ago, hellfire99 said:

 

 

As someone has already said, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics." 

 

yes, I think I have posted that here and think its true

 

But, we need to have something to base our idea's on. eg deciding when we goto locked down, how hard the lockdown should be, which is different in different counties around Europe, we need base our ideas on something as to when we come out of lockdown.

 

These stats I have argued here, are poor, improved testing will make them more accurate, more usable. The better the data is the better decisions can be made about what to do next.

When I look at the stats in China, its seems hard to believe that the mortality rate is so low, 4.5 % is comparison to 12% in Italy, but there again, China lockdown in a much harder way than many countries have in Europe.

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29 minutes ago, yesterday said:

When I look at the stats in China, its seems hard to believe that the mortality rate is so low, 4.5 % is comparison to 12% in Italy, but there again, China lockdown in a much harder way than many countries have in Europe.

In Italy it spread a lot in hospitals, as the early cases weren't recognised and people were sent to hospital with no precautions. That hurt the health system more than it would have as lots of doctors and nurses were infected, and also meant it spread to lots of people who were already weak and sick.

 

that's in stark contrast to Germany where it seems the cases are disproportionately young and healthy, having caught it on skiing trips.

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1 hour ago, hellfire99 said:

Have they found the correct balance and would a 0.4% mortality rate warrant such a reaction?

It´s a 0,4 letality rate, not mortality (which would include all the population, not just the infected ones) and it might be higher if there had been no lockdown (e. g. because the capacity of the healthcare system might have been overrun). You also have to consider those survivors with permanent impairments.

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1 hour ago, Keleth said:

People seem overly fixed on the death rate.

The death rate is not why countries have closed down,it`s how virulent the disease is and how many people require hospitalisation.

If we let it run rampant like they were going to do in the UK or like they did in Sweden then the health service gets overrun.You have even now people requiring hospital treatment which they can`t get including ops,imagine what it would have been like if there was no shutdown.

Hard to fake deaths. You can also derive (+/-) hospitalization rates from death rates.

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Yes I agree death rates are a good statistic to measure how spread the virus is in a country

 

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Seems like lock downs or social distancing will have to continue into the summer months, theres no indication of the virus slowing down due to warmer weather, if things go back to normal health systems will be over run 

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6 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Hard to fake deaths. You can also derive (+/-) hospitalization rates from death rates.

 

Well, that's just the 'art' of it all, isn't it. What do you count as an official corona-death? Different places record it in different ways. if anything, deaths are probably under-reported. So are cases.

 

I know of two people here (young, healthy, etc) who probably had it, or so they claim. But in both cases their doctors said 'nah' and refused to test them. Extreme coughing fits, fever between 40-41, feeling weak and tired. Actually one case was an old friend and her whole family, including 2 young children, where everyone had the same thing, so make that 5 people that I know.

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33 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Hard to fake deaths. You can also derive (+/-) hospitalization rates from death rates.

 

In plenty of countries you can fake whatever, even create fake living people to vote in elections.   Anyway, everything you have to do to fake corona-deaths is saying they died of something else and not test them at all.

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EU risks break-up over 'coronabonds' row, warns Italian PM

 

Quote

 

Conte says divisions between southern states and Dutch-led northern opposition are a make-or-break issue

 

Italy’s prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, has warned of the break-up of the European Union, as unprecedented pressure was piled on northern states to give way and unlock €500bn (£438bn) of economic support for the countries hit hardest by the coronavirus pandemic.

 

After 16 hours of talks since Tuesday, EU finance ministers will reconvene by videoconference on Thursday afternoon with the financial markets seeking signs of accord and politicians warning of a make-or-break moment for the bloc.

 

 

I wonder if this crisis is going to put Brexit completely in the shade. Could it lead to the end of the EU or to a split with only a northern rump surviving?

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Meh.  The EU in its current form has been in existence for what?  26 years now?  It seems like every month since its founding there has been some sort of crisis or kerfluffle that "threatens to destroy the EU."  It also seems that most of the saber-rattling over the years has come from Italy.

 

Same as it ever was.

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This is interesting.New Zealand seems to have beaten it.  https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8202873/Jacinda-Ardern-declares-victory-coronavirus-lift-strict-lockdown-measures.html

 Edited to add: another Zeew Zealand article.

https://www.thesun.ie/news/5301136/new-zealand-beating-coronavirus-lift-lockdown/

 

They have had one death. ONE DEATH! I alsways thought borders should be closed, quarantine imposed, for people (citizens and residents) entering. Especially on an island.

 

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New Zealand began testing for the virus on January 22, and did not confirm a positive case for over one month later.

What followed was a series of quick and decisive actions as the case figures began to creep up.

On March 14 all new arrivals in the country were ordered into self isolation and cruise ships were banned.

'COMMON SENSE'

And as 32 cases were confirmed on March 18, the borders were sealed for any foreigners and non-residents.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Space Cowboy said:

Meh.  The EU in its current form has been in existence for what?  26 years now?  It seems like every month since its founding there has been some sort of crisis or kerfluffle that "threatens to destroy the EU."  It also seems that most of the saber-rattling over the years has come from Italy.

 

Same as it ever was.

 

This is hardly a “kerfuffle”

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2 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Hard to fake deaths. You can also derive (+/-) hospitalization rates from death rates.

How ?

But the death rates are not the reason for the lockdown,if it was 0% mortality there would still be a lockdown to avoid overwhelming the health service.That`s my whole point in answer to HF99s post he seems to think it`s the mortality rate that causes lockdown.

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1 hour ago, oscar 63 said:

 

This is hardly a “kerfuffle”

 

Indeed.  It’s a crisis.  That was, in fact, the other word I used.

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2 hours ago, Space Cowboy said:

Meh.  The EU in its current form has been in existence for what?  26 years now?  It seems like every month since its founding there has been some sort of crisis or kerfluffle that "threatens to destroy the EU."  It also seems that most of the saber-rattling over the years has come from Italy.

 

Same as it ever was.

WHS. You used to hear the same thing constantly in 2008/2009: Greece had no choice but to leave, the Euro would collapse and the EU would follow. The same people were claiming a few years later that Brexit would cause all the other members to want to leave and form a new trading arrangement that only involved doing what Britain wants without wanting anything in return. All fantasy of course. 

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So Trump stopping flights from China albeit too late, the NY cases mostly came from Europe.

 

Quote

 

New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that travelers brought in the virus mainly from Europe, not Asia.

“The majority is clearly European,” said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who co-wrote a study awaiting peer review.

A separate team at NYU Grossman School of Medicine came to strikingly similar conclusions, despite studying a different group of cases. Both teams analyzed genomes from coronaviruses taken from New Yorkers starting in mid-March.

The research revealed a previously hidden spread of the virus that might have been detected if aggressive testing programs had been put in place.

On Jan. 31, President Donald Trump barred foreign nationals from entering the country if they had been in China during the prior two weeks.

It would not be until late February that Italy would begin locking down towns and cities, and March 11 when Trump said he would block travelers from most European countries. But New Yorkers had already been traveling home with the virus.

“People were just oblivious,” said Adriana Heguy, a member of the NYU team.

 

 

the rest

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