6,203 posts in this topic

49 minutes ago, jeremytwo said:

 

Nope. The Tweet I posted was incorrect.

Wow...   Maybe we are getting somewhere... 

 

Jeremy... Please, before you post your next re-tweet... take a second to try and see the other side of the coin... 

 

If there is the tiniest doudt in your mind that it could be utter bollocks... dont post.. but if you honestly hand on your heart think its correct... Post it... 

I actually miss some of the long drawn out shite you posted.. but it was "Your shite" and thats what made it special... 

 

 

If you think I am talking utter shite too...  When was the last time you heard about of or   took interest in the Rothschilds?  

 

Stay focused.. tell us about your 10 KM long flowerbed ... 

 

Maybe pop into the "Buying property in bayern" thread and tell us your thoughts... you have the Tee shirt... tell us how it fits... 

 

 

Turn that corner please!!  

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49 minutes ago, jeremytwo said:

 

Nope. The Tweet I posted was incorrect.

 

Shocking that you admitted it but underneath all of your bullshit, I still think you are a good but very misguided sort.

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6 minutes ago, arunadasi said:

This Washington Post article has four fantastic visualisations of simulations of varying degrees of lockdown, infection, recovered and spread based on how disciplined an area is:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

That's really cool.

 

Reading this this morning about research into how large social gatherings were the "rocket fuel" for the spread of the virus, in particular the Carnival in NRW, Aprés Ski in Ischgl and Mardis Gras in New Orleans:

 

Quote

 

“One pattern we are seeing across the globe is that wherever there was singing and dancing, the virus spread more rapidly,” 

 

“Most infections didn’t take place in supermarkets or restaurants,”. In Heinsberg, [a]  team of coronavirus detectives could find scant evidence of the virus being transmitted via the surfaces of door handles, smart phones or other objects.


 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/the-cluster-effect-how-social-gatherings-were-rocket-fuel-for-coronavirus

 

Perhaps good news for the loosening of restrictions for shops and businesses. Bad news if you want to go to big sporting or social events any time soon.

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Going back again to the BCG topic and also to the initial mortality rate reported by China. Although Chinese absolute stats are completely unreliable, perhaps the relative stats are not so far off.

I mean the mortality rate around 2.5%.

 

What we see now in Europe is much different. We see Italy, UK, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden with mortality rates close or above 10%, and in some cases 12%!

At the same time, we have many countries like Germany, Ireland, Portugal and most of eastern Europe with mortality rates below 3% and in many cases below 2%.

 

And in the middle? Not much at all!

How can we explain this? The only few possible explanations I see are:

  • earlier reaction and isolation
  • BCG (Tuberculosis) vaccination
  • a combination of both factors
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4 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

How can we explain this? The only few possible explanations I see are:

  • earlier reaction and isolation
  • BCG (Tuberculosis) vaccination
  • a combination of both factors

I could think of more factors explaining the difference. E. g.

 

- availability of ICU beds / ventilators

- demographics of those infected (young holidaymakers and their social circles vs. elderly residents)

- cultural differnces (kissing on the cheek for greeting vs. nod from a distance, 3 generations living together vs. more single households)

- obedience to lockdown rules

- availability of tests

- availability of "corona taxis"

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1 minute ago, jeba said:

I could think of more factors explaining the difference. E. g.

 

- availability of ICU beds / ventilators

Correct.

 

1 minute ago, jeba said:

- demographics of those infected (young holidaymakers and their social circles vs. elderly residents)

Does not explain it any longer after so many weeks. Only initially.

1 minute ago, jeba said:

- cultural differnces (kissing on the cheek for greeting vs. nod from a distance, 3 generations living together vs. more single households)

Disagree. Portugal is doing fine. On the opposite, Netherlands is not.

 

1 minute ago, jeba said:

- obedience to lockdown rules

That goes into my argument of isolation.

 

1 minute ago, jeba said:

- availability of tests

Not valid for all countries.Definitely not valid for Portugal.

 

1 minute ago, jeba said:

- availability of "corona taxis"

Probably.

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20 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

What we see now in Europe is much different. We see Italy, UK, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden with mortality rates close or above 10%, and in some cases 12%!

At the same time, we have many countries like Germany, Ireland, Portugal and most of eastern Europe with mortality rates below 3% and in many cases below 2%.

 

In the UK schoolchildren 10-14 were vaccinated from 1953 to 2005. That means everybody 25 - 77 has been vaccinated.

 

I don't think you can draw any conclusions when the testing strategies are so wildly different. My previous NHS doctor's website has the standard advice: if you show symptoms stay at home for 7 days and only call the help line if the symptoms get worse. I.e. there's no way of knowing how many cases there are.

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27 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Going back again to the BCG topic and also to the initial mortality rate reported by China. Although Chinese absolute stats are completely unreliable, perhaps the relative stats are not so far off.

I mean the mortality rate around 2.5%.

 

What we see now in Europe is much different. We see Italy, UK, Spain, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden with mortality rates close or above 10%, and in some cases 12%!

At the same time, we have many countries like Germany, Ireland, Portugal and most of eastern Europe with mortality rates below 3% and in many cases below 2%.

 

And in the middle? Not much at all!

How can we explain this? The only few possible explanations I see are:

  • earlier reaction and isolation
  • BCG (Tuberculosis) vaccination
  • a combination of both factors

 

This bloke, who is a doctor, has an interesting take on the statistics. 

 

Just to highlight what he says about Italy (9 mins onwards). 

 

Long story short, he reckons there are 10 times more cases in Italy that the announced 130,000 or so cases. This reduces the death rate from 12% to 1.2 %. 

 

I've not checked the data but to have such massive differences in Europe doesn't quite ring true. 

 

As someone has already said, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics." 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Dembo said:

Reading this this morning about research into how large social gatherings were the "rocket fuel" for the spread of the virus, in particular the Carnival in NRW, Aprés Ski in Ischgl and Mardis Gras in New Orleans:

Don't forget the religeous gatherings in South Korea (how many people did this lady infected? 300?) and there was also a gathering in Alsace from where it all started in France.

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In this press conference it´s said that the severity of the disease depends on the amount of virus you were infected by. From this I´d conclude for myself that I´d use some viruzide mouthwash or lozenges (e. g. containg octenidine rather than chlorhexidine) to try to reduce the number of viruses in my pharynx once I think I might have caught the virus.

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6 minutes ago, AnswerToLife42 said:

Don't forget the religeous gatherings in South Korea (how many people did this lady infected? 300?) and there was also a gathering in Alsace from where it all started in France.

 

And mass gatherings for Women's Day all over, which the Spanish government refused to cancel. This was on the 8th of March, 6 full days after the European Center for Disease Control had upgraded to "high" the risk of Covid-19 infections and had recommended avoiding mass gatherings in Europe.

 

A few days after Women's Day unrestricted cheek-kissing all women over Spain the wife of the Prime Minister,  the Vice Prime Minister (a female), and the Minister for Equality (another female) tested positive for Covid-19. Spain now has the highest death rate per capita from Covid-19 in the world.

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5 minutes ago, jeba said:

In this press conference it´s said that the severity of the disease depends on the amount of virus you were infected by. From this I´d conclude for myself that I´d use some viruzide mouthwash or lozenges (e. g. containg octenidine rather than chlorhexidine) to try to reduce the number of viruses in my pharynx once I think I might have caught the virus.

 

There is a doctor in Peru who for weeks have insisted that people should gargle with water with salt three times a day to reduce the amount of infection in your pharynx due to altering its natural PH and handicapping the virus reproduction a bit.

 

I am not clever enough to scientifically discard that, but I found a bit strange how he was ridiculed with the argument that salt+water is an old wives tales.   If you google about it you will find some "fact check" sites saying that salted water is no cure for covid-19, but that's not what that doctor is really saying.

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26 minutes ago, hellfire99 said:

 

This bloke, who is a doctor, has an interesting take on the statistics. 

 

Just to highlight what he says about Italy (9 mins onwards). 

 

Long story short, he reckons there are 10 times more cases in Italy that the announced 130,000 or so cases. This reduces the death rate from 12% to 1.2 %. 

 

I've not checked the data but to have such massive differences in Europe doesn't quite ring true. 

 

As someone has already said, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics." 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52210479

How can there be really reliable stats anywhere? 

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12 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

There is a doctor in Peru who for weeks have insisted that people should gargle with water with salt three times a day to reduce the amount of infection in your pharynx due to altering its natural PH and handicapping the virus reproduction a bit.

 

Salt (NaCl) will not change the pH-value of water.

I would suggest using hydrochloric acid or, if you want it more basic, soap or washing powder.:o

Cleaning the mouth of children with soap is also advised ifb they have used foul words.

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45 minutes ago, hellfire99 said:

 

I've not checked the data but to have such massive differences in Europe doesn't quite ring true. 

 

As someone has already said, "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics." 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That is certainly true but I suspect the problem is we are not comparing apples with apples, more like oranges with olives, potatoes, cheeses, Yorkshire puddings and spargel.

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It took me ages to find this site again: https://smartairfilters.com/en/clean-air-blog/

There they tested, which material could be useful for DYO masks.

They also made recommendations, how to inactivate FFP3 mask etc. should there be any virusses on them: heat it to over 75°C.

Microwave is not a good idea since there is metal in the masks. An oven should do.

Don't wash a mask, it will loose effiency.

There are also nice pictures of masks they have worn in Peking and Dehli during smog.

 

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3 minutes ago, AnswerToLife42 said:

I would suggest using hydrochloric acid or, if you want it more basic, soap or washing powde

Very funny. As I tried to point out there are mouthwash solutions and lozenges available which are able to inactivate the virus (not all are).

 

18 minutes ago, john g. said:

How can there be really reliable stats anywhere? 

The stuy perfermed in Gangelt (which is what the above linekd press conference is about) should have reasonably reliable numbers as they studied a small twon for weeks screening even healthy people. BTW they found the letality (death rate of all infected) to be below 0,4%).

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38 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

That is certainly true but I suspect the problem is we are not comparing apples with apples, more like oranges with olives, potatoes, cheeses, Yorkshire puddings and spargel.

 

I bet Ainsley Harriott could knock up quite a dish with that list of goodies! 

 

38 minutes ago, AnswerToLife42 said:

It took me ages to find this site again: https://smartairfilters.com/en/clean-air-blog/

There they tested, which material could be useful for DYO masks.

They also made recommendations, how to inactivate FFP3 mask etc. should there be any virusses on them: heat it to over 75°C.

Microwave is not a good idea since there is metal in the masks. An oven should do.

Don't wash a mask, it will loose effiency.

 

Rice steamer. 

 

 

After the demonstration the Health Minister made egg fried rice fro everyone.

 

37 minutes ago, jeba said:

The stuy perfermed in Gangelt (which is what the above linekd press conference is about) should have reasonably reliable numbers as they studied a small twon for weeks screening even healthy people. BTW they found the letality (death rate of all infected) to be below 0,4%).

 

So the economy has been flushed down the shitter for nowt, then? 

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4 minutes ago, hellfire99 said:

So the economy has been flushed down the shitter for nowt, then? 

Depends on whether you´re one of the 0,4% and whether being really sick is something you´d rather avoid even though you´ll survive (possibly with long term damage). 0,4% would still amount to more than 200000 in Germany.

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