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Holy shit, German corona deaths just jumped to 920! This is an upwards trend that started 3 days ago, but today this was incredibly high! Mortality is also up to 1.1%. And this is before an healthcare system saturation.

 

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4 hours ago, jeba said:

Just came about an article (https://www.n-tv.de/panorama/So-leidet-ein-Krebspatient-am-Klopapiermangel-article21685009.html) from which it seemed that there is still a shortage of toilet paper. Is that true?

 

Yes, it is.  It probably depends on the area but it seems to me that stores are getting deliveries and getting sold out fast but once all the hoarders run out of space, it will go back to normal.

 

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The president took too long to react to the problem and even due to political bias kicked out the Cuban doctors that were helping, the president belongs to a right wing party.  

 

Lenin Moreno belongs to a left center party.   He was named after his father's hero Vladimir Lenin.    

 

From his Wikipedia page for people not familiar with the country:    

 

He was nominated as the candidate for Correa's PAIS Alliance, a centre-left, democratic socialist[1] political party, in the 2017 presidential election and won a narrow victory in Ecuador's second round of voting on 2 April 2017.

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The state of Guayas (where Guayaquil is) is now militarized because people were not following the mandated quarantine, which is always difficult in poor countries where more than half the population do not have stable jobs.  So the next problem is the social crisis the quarantine itself creates.

 

Ecuador is not the only country which will suffer greatly from second order effects.    

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6 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Holy shit, German corona deaths just jumped to 920! This is an upwards trend that started 3 days ago, but today this was incredibly high! Mortality is also up to 1.1%. And this is before an healthcare system saturation.

 

 

Also, the number of critical cases has jumped in the recent days according to: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

 

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The serious cases used to be in double digits tiil 3-4 days ago and then it suddenly jumped to around 1900 and now to 3400. Looks like the people infected 2-3 weeks ago are now getting really sick.

 

Thankfully, the number of new cases is not jumping significantly and the number of recoveries is going up. This would mean we probably will not reach saturation, as Germany already has over 28,000 ICU beds & 25,000 ventilator units.

 

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I don't agree with this approach but if the outcomes are better in the long run, it is worth consideration.   The "herd immunity" approach may be costly in the first wave, but if this lasts another 12 - 18 months, it will be interesting to see if the intial exposure makes the subsequent waves less lethal.  

 

Sweden - Europe's Lockdown Exception

 

https://www.france24.com/en/20200401-sweden-europe-s-lockdown-exception

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6 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Holy shit, German corona deaths just jumped to 920! This is an upwards trend that started 3 days ago, but today this was incredibly high! Mortality is also up to 1.1%. And this is before an healthcare system saturation.

 

 

I have heard the following explanations for low German mortality:

 

1.  high levels of testing

2.  robust healthcare infra

3.  competent leadership and policy

4.  clean air

5.  generally healthy population

6.  etc. 

 

There will be variances and some countries will be a bit better or worse than others, but eventually, i expect most countries will follow the exponential curve on cases and deaths when this is examined with better data after the fact.  

 

In this case, i expect that the statistics from Germany will look a lot like other countries.   

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22 minutes ago, MunichDesi said:

 

Also, the number of critical cases has jumped in the recent days according to: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

 

Thankfully, the number of new cases is not jumping significantly and the number of recoveries is going up. This would mean we probably will not reach saturation, as Germany already has over 28,000 ICU beds & 25,000 ventilator units.

 

Yesterday new cases were back in the 6,000s after a few days in the 4,000s. I hadn't spotted the jump in critical cases; perhaps that suggests they're being counted differently. I commented that the other day the number of recovered suddenly jumped by over 4,000 and that seems unlikely unless it is just about the accounting.

 

When did the "lockdown" start? - it's so hard to remember because I've been at home for 3 weeks now, but I think it will be 2 weeks on Monday. Maybe next week we'll see that have an effect on new cases, and some time after that on deaths.

 

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33 minutes ago, MunichDesi said:

Thankfully, the number of new cases is not jumping significantly and the number of recoveries is going up. This would mean we probably will not reach saturation, as Germany already has over 28,000 ICU beds & 25,000 ventilator units.

 

They just said on the news that the number of ICU beds has been increased to 40,000 and that they are working on having more than enough ventilators as well.

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As in other countries, universities and industry in Germany are partnering to build positive airway pressure devices (as was pioneered in Italy) to put less ill patients on in the hope of sparing them the need of intubation and full on ventilation under sedation. This obviously has the knock on effect of freeing up real ventilators for more critical patients.

 

Meanwhile in Ireland a tragic example of the kind of death and funeral thousands of elderly people in nursing homes are experiencing right now right across Europe:

 

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/family-endures-surreal-funeral-for-father-as-mother-also-fights-coronavirus-1.4218313?mode=amp

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2 minutes ago, Dembo said:

When did the "lockdown" start? - it's so hard to remember because I've been at home for 3 weeks now, but I think it will be 2 weeks on Monday. Maybe next week we'll see that have an effect on new cases, and some time after that on deaths.

 

Sunday March 22nd Merkel came out with the new rules for everybody.  Before that, each state had their own rules.  Niedersachsen had something as of March 17th, ordering closing of non essential services, asking people not to hang out in groups etc.

 

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4 minutes ago, murphaph said:

Meanwhile in Ireland a tragic example of the kind of death and funeral thousands of elderly people in nursing homes are experiencing right now right across Europe:

 

Yep, I can cornfirm this... one pal* of mine got turned away at the Italiam border whilst trying to get to bury his father...  and another friend* of mine is an undertaker and he says all sorts of new regs are in place temporarily...

 

 

 

* sorry for sounding like LeonG...   

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, SpiderPig said:

 

Yep, I can cornfirm this... one pal* of mine got turned away at the Italiam border whilst trying to get to bury his father...  and another friend* of mine is an undertaker and he says all sorts of new regs are in place temporarily...

 

 

 

* sorry for sounding like LeonG...   

 

See, you have friends too.  Here I was thinking you were a sad friendless git just jealous of my plentitude.

 

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 Chicago gets a bad rap, but this is heartwarming.

5e8586a876e77_Wereallinthistogethersign(

My cousin's little girl is adding her message.

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1 hour ago, balticus said:

Lenin Moreno belongs to a left center party.   He was named after his father's hero Vladimir Lenin.    

 

From his Wikipedia page for people not familiar with the country:    

 

He was nominated as the candidate for Correa's PAIS Alliance, a centre-left, democratic socialist[1] political party, in the 2017 presidential election and won a narrow victory in Ecuador's second round of voting on 2 April 2017.

 

Look at this guy trying to teach me about south american politics with the power of Google.  While I accept I didn't use the best wording in my original post, I trivialized his political orientation and background, it was because I didn't expect a Google Warrior reply like this, because anyone who knows a tiny bit about Ecuador knows the current government has a right wing orientation.

 

South America is mostly very complicated in politics in some aspects, the traditional right vs left wing is not really obvious.   Mostly the big parties were always center parties with slight orientation either to the left of to the right,   It is pretty common that people ride on the "wrong" party for different reasons.  i.e. The "Centro Democratico" (Very right wing) from Colombia was born in the heart of the "Partido Liberal" (center-left).

 

Once Moreno was in power in Ecuador he started to dismount Correa's programs and turn the country much more neoliberal again (think Trump undoing Obama's policies), workers protection laws from Correa time were abolished, he reduced taxes for the rich, etc.

 

Lenin won with the votes from the left and turned the country to the right and then later on to the ultra-right.  He even didn't hide it, once he took power his cabinet was mostly from the right wing side, either from the other parties or ministers directly appointed by the bankers.  

 

Lenin's approval rating BEFORE the corona-crisis was 16%, and 67% of his voters said they were disappointed and should have voted for the progresist one.  Lenin's government program is now called a "descorreizar" process, un-Correa-ing, like Trump is un-Obaming the US in some aspects.

 

I guess you will have to Google better next time and go beyond Wikipedia's first lines.

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2 hours ago, balticus said:

I don't agree with this approach but if the outcomes are better in the long run, it is worth consideration.   The "herd immunity" approach may be costly in the first wave, but if this lasts another 12 - 18 months, it will be interesting to see if the intial exposure makes the subsequent waves less lethal.  

How fool will those countries look like when in the next few months a decent cure/vaccine shows up? Because it will. In the meantime, they let millions of people die. The 12-18 months forecast does not consider any cure/vaccine, which is dead wrong.

The people that say "oh, but a vaccine takes at least 18 months to get approved" are completely wrong. When one is found, you will see public and business pressure to deliver, they will have no time to do proper testing, but we will also not have to wait 18 months. Better yet is a "cure", i.e. either a new drug or a combination of existing ones that reduce mortality below 1%. I think the acceptable threshold is between 0.5% to 1%.

 

Quote

Let´s give it a few weeks.

 

BTW, how do you explain the situation going on in the Netherlands then?

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1 hour ago, Krieg said:

 

Look at this guy trying to teach me about south american politics with the power of Google. 

 

I have lived in both Guayaquil and Quito.    Beyond that i won't provide more personal info.  

1 hour ago, Krieg said:

 

While I accept I didn't use the best wording in my original post, I trivialized his political orientation and background, it was because I didn't expect a Google Warrior reply like this, because anyone who knows a tiny bit about Ecuador knows the current government has a right wing orientation.

 

You lied and you got caught.   Take responsibility. 

1 hour ago, Krieg said:

 

South America is mostly very complicated in politics in some aspects, the traditional right vs left wing is not really obvious.   

 

True of many places.   Water is wet. 

1 hour ago, Krieg said:

 

Once Moreno was in power in Ecuador he started to dismount Correa's programs and turn the country much more neoliberal again (think Trump undoing Obama's policies), workers protection laws from Correa time were abolished, he reduced taxes for the rich, etc.

It may be that the corruption under Correa and stiffing Ecuador's creditors gave the new Pres few options.    People who like leaders like Correa (and i know some) are hard to understand.   They offer improvements to the poor, they speak some Quechua to the Indigenous groups and pay them off, and then they loot the country.   Chavez light.  

 

1 hour ago, Krieg said:

LLenin's government program is now called a "descorreizar" process, un-Correa-ing, like Trump is un-Obaming the US in some aspects.

And if you would be honest, you might mention that the Pres being denounced or even exiled in Ecuador is not exactly a novelty.   Wash, rinse, repeat. 

1 hour ago, Krieg said:

 

I guess you will have to Google better next time and go beyond Wikipedia's first lines.

 

Nice try.   

 

I used Wikipedia to point out your obvious misrepresentation to the rest of the board.   

 

Just admit that you tried to distort the truth and never expected to meet someone on this board who has actually heard of Guayaquil.   

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