4,816 posts in this topic

22 minutes ago, jeba said:

You can´t keep half the world in lockdown until then. Especially not knowing when that will be. And certainly in third world countries where people don´t care whether thy can stop paying rent or mortgages for a few months but whether they´ll have something to eat this evening without work. The more time passes without a reasonable exit strategy the more I like my Kinderlandverschickung concept.

I imagine we'll have rolling lockdowns; that is when the numbers start going down you can loosen the restrictions and allow more people to get infected, then have another 2 weeks of lockdown. Do it right and the healthcare system is never overwhelmed.

 

Plus the capacity of healthcare will increase; even without a cure they will get better at treating it. And if testing can be done cheaply and easily you can allow more normality. It could be that we all have to get tested every 2 weeks to be allowed out. Fail a test or don't show up and you're legally required to stay inside.

 

In the 3rd world it'll probably run rife and millions will die.

 

Kinderlandvershickung - I had to google but now I know what the word means. Thanks.

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1 hour ago, Dembo said:

Kinderlandvershickung - I had to google but now I know what the word means. Thanks.

I was referring to an idea I voiced earlier in the thread. I wondered whether it could be an option to send kids to sort of holiday camps where they´re secluded from the rest of the world, get infected, get immune and return home so that they can go to school again. That was based - among other things - on the assumption that the risk for healthy kids is justifiable in view of the alternatives available. Which I´m tending to believe is the case. Closing schools just to buy some time isn´t good enough in my view if that time could be put to better use with less collateral damage (like parent´s having to stay at home).

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and who would teach them, feed them, clean the school, transport them to and from the school, operate the admin side of the school?

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21 minutes ago, oscar 63 said:

and who would teach them, feed them, clean the school, transport them to and from the school, operate the admin side of the school?

Volunteers, preferably ones who are immune already or at least low risk. Apart from that there wouldn´t necessarily have to be schooling. You mustn´t forget that the alternative is that they will be infected anyway - just not under somewhat controlled conditions. We´re not talking about a choice between a good and a bad solution but about the choice between two evils.

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Russia has corona! Well, well!😟

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52109892

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49 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Unsure if this was posted before, but it might be where Germany gets one step ahead of the world.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-germany-covid-19-immunity-certificates-testing-social-distancing-lockdown-2020-3?r=DE&IR=T

 

I've seen that article for some days on Business Insider. The problem is, they don't know if one can be re-infected or how long it would take. Last figures I saw is that there are 8 different strains of covid-19.

 

Have you seen any info on how long the supposed immunity would last?

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Trump trash talking Europe again. The man is such an abject failure of a president he has to continually deflect from his failures by highlighting how bad things are elsewhere.

 

Last night he was claiming the US would be sending ventilators to Spain. Meanwhile the governor of New York is screaming for more ventilators.

 

Look after your own country you fucking wanker.

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9 minutes ago, murphaph said:

Trump trash talking Europe again. The man is such an abject failure of a president he has to continually deflect from his failures by highlighting how bad things are elsewhere.

 

Last night he was claiming the US would be sending ventilators to Spain. Meanwhile the governor of New York is screaming for more ventilators.

 

Look after your own country you fucking wanker.

I've never known a politician to do 180 degree policy turns at the rate that this bloke does. It probably depends on which side of bed he stepped out of. 

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overall feel so bad for the people of N America. Good people, awful, awful president. 

 

 

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While I think EU-country politicians at a national level have come off relatively well in domestic crisis management, I am still reserving judgement because I believe that previous economic choices are part of what has made this crisis so bad in parts of Europe.  By this, I mean, there were systemic and resource issues in the initial public response to the crisis in Italy and Spain that are to some extent direct consequences of the austerity that was imposed on these countries due to the attempt to use the 2008 crisis and other Eurozone weaknesses to force a change in their domestic "social contracts". 

 

I will believe that German politicians are "better" if they finally explain to the German public that only low-conditionality national liability sharing (aka Eurobonds) are a sustainable way to restore public services and national economies in the Eurozone, and build up preventive resilience for pandemic crises in the future.

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18 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Bah, official numbers in, 837 deaths, a bit more than yesterday. I don't have regional data yet, but this means that now it is growing fast somewhere, if in Lombardia is going down.

 

Edit: sharp increase in Piedmont and perhaps other areas.So for now we are stuck on the plateau.

 

You can see it in the data 

https://corona.help/country/italy/log

 

orCapture.JPG.01e1a6331823533ab0634b19bb15

 

Basically you just take the number of infections, per day and divide it by the mortality rate for the same day - currently about 12 %

That gives you a rough figure for how many people will die on the day

 

I say rough because, not everybody dies exactly 2 weeks after getting it - I thought some where

between 1 week and 3 weeks, althought I cannot prove that figure :)

 

The key to this, is getting a good coverage of testing and watch the number of infections  go down, when the number of infections starts to go down per day about 2 weeks later you will see the number of deaths go down,

 

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This was a nice read. Made me feel a little more hopeful -

 

Quote

 

Late last year — long before most people had heard of the new coronavirus now sweeping the globe — scientists in Germany sprang into action to develop a test for the virus causing an unusual respiratory disease in central China.

They had one by mid-January — and labs around the country were ready to start using it just weeks later, around the same time that Europe's most populous country registered its first case.

“It was clear that if the epidemic swept over here from China, then we had to start testing," said Hendrik Borucki, a spokesman for Bioscientia Healthcare, which operates 19 labs in Germany.

That quick work stands in stark contrast to delays and missteps in other countries. Coupled with Germany's large number of intensive care beds and its early social distancing measures, it could explain one of the most interesting puzzles of the COVID-19 pandemic: Why people with the virus in Germany currently appear to be dying at much lower rates than in neighboring countries.

The numbers are remarkable: As confirmed cases in Germany passed 71,000 the death toll Wednesday was 775, according to a tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. In contrast, Italy has reported almost 106,000 infections and more than 12,400 deaths, while Spain has more than 96,000 cases, with more than 8,400 deaths.

 

the rest

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2 hours ago, Eupathic Impulse said:

While I think EU-country politicians at a national level have come off relatively well in domestic crisis management, I am still reserving judgement because I believe that previous economic choices are part of what has made this crisis so bad in parts of Europe.  By this, I mean, there were systemic and resource issues in the initial public response to the crisis in Italy and Spain that are to some extent direct consequences of the austerity that was imposed on these countries due to the attempt to use the 2008 crisis and other Eurozone weaknesses to force a change in their domestic "social contracts". 

 

I will believe that German politicians are "better" if they finally explain to the German public that only low-conditionality national liability sharing (aka Eurobonds) are a sustainable way to restore public services and national economies in the Eurozone, and build up preventive resilience for pandemic crises in the future.

You make a good point but it was not just Italy and Spain that suffered austerity, what about Greece and the UK? Whilst the UK with its long underfunded NHS may yet suffer the same, Greece, where you would expect the worst, is so far in relatively good shape.

I think it will be a big struggle to convince the German public to fund the EU even further, bearing in mind that with Brexit they will be the only net contributor to the union.

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16 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

You make a good point but it was not just Italy and Spain that suffered austerity, what about Greece and the UK? Whilst the UK with its long underfunded NHS may yet suffer the same, Greece, where you would expect the worst, is so far in relatively good shape.

They got lucky so far that they havent had many cases, their health system is a disaster. And their current mortality rate is already worrying.

 

16 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

I think it will be a big struggle to convince the German public to fund the EU even further, bearing in mind that with Brexit they will be the only net contributor to the union.

No they are not:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-48256318

And per capita Germany is not even #1 contributor

 

Also part of the EU budget is independent from member states contribution, like custom duties.

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I stand corrected but Germany is none the less the biggest contributor and with the loss of the 2nd biggest will most likely have to contribute even more in the future.

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