4,885 posts in this topic

3 minutes ago, engelchen said:

 

I wonder whether drug dealers will go bankrupt. And whether this will force some addicts to quit cold turkey.

Corona's been great for the environment, and maybe solves the drug problem too.

 

This article:

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus206825629/Corona-Tests-Die-Besonderheit-die-Deutschland-Hoffnung-macht.html

 

says Germany has been testing more than any other European country (though they don't have data for NL in particular) with 200,000 tests per week. Italy has done ~300,000 in total, and the UK ~90,000; France is doing 5,000 per day. Unfortunately it seems nobody knows the exact number because of everything being decentralised here.

 

When all this is over we'll probably learn a lot more about the discrepencies in the reporting and maybe the true picture will look different.

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3 hours ago, LeonG said:

 

You can find regional data here:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy  There is a big table further down which shows cases and deaths according to region by date, it's called  Daily COVID-19 cases in Italy by region

Thanks! Thats a lot of data to clean up... maybe I can do it on the weekend if numbers don't start going down. A quick look reveals:

  • South and center are pretty much clean
  • Seems some regions haven't reported data yet for today, or someone forgot to update the table
  • Lombardia still is by far the worst area, with more than 50% of deaths.
  • Lombardia and Emillia Romana, the 2 worst, seems to have peaked already

A quick look does not show a big risk for the south and center.

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Quote

says Germany has been testing more than any other European country (though they don't have data for NL in particular) with 200,000 tests per week. Italy has done ~300,000 in total, and the UK ~90,000; France is doing 5,000 per day.

 

 

The expert at today's press conference was estimating current capacity of 360k per week in Germany with an average of 10% being positive. The consensus of the panel is that they wanted even more focused testing.

 

Considering what is happening in Italy, France, Spain, and the UK, I don't find the comparison comforting. So far South Korea seems to be doing well and they opted for comprehensive testing.

 

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Unfortunately it seems nobody knows the exact number because of everything being decentralised here.

 

However, they've now setup a central programme to track free beds and over 60% of hospitals are currently involved.

 

Quote

When all this is over we'll probably learn a lot more about the discrepencies in the reporting and maybe the true picture will look different.

 

It'll take some time, but I agree with you.

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18 minutes ago, Dembo said:

Corona's been great for the environment, and maybe solves the drug problem too.

 

It might also bring vaping under control.

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Here is some interesting comparison between a few countries I'm tracking.

m26_2.png.dc827f62023130bf6dfd8eb6508227

Spain started with a very fast growth, now it is stabilizing but still much worst situation than Italy.

Germany is managing it better than the others, but not that far from Italy.My guess is that initial spreading was among younger people and now it is reaching the older ones.

Portugal is getting a bit scary, but the second week is only half way through, so I would not read much from it.

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49 minutes ago, Dembo said:

Corona's been great for the environment,

 

I saw some pictures in China showing that the pollution levels are going back up as they open up different areas. The environmental advantages are only temporary, I'm afraid. 

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1 hour ago, Dembo said:

Corona's been great for the environment, and maybe solves the drug problem too.

 

This article:

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus206825629/Corona-Tests-Die-Besonderheit-die-Deutschland-Hoffnung-macht.html

 

says Germany has been testing more than any other European country (though they don't have data for NL in particular) with 200,000 tests per week. Italy has done ~300,000 in total, and the UK ~90,000; France is doing 5,000 per day. Unfortunately it seems nobody knows the exact number because of everything being decentralised here.

 

When all this is over we'll probably learn a lot more about the discrepencies in the reporting and maybe the true picture will look different.

Here are some number concerning the age distribution of the infected and the number of tests performed:

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-03-26-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

 

Tests in   Number of

week         tests             Positive

11            127000          7600

12            350000          24000

 

The machines must be running hot

 

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1 hour ago, engelchen said:

 

Yes, but the Germans have decided to ration the testing mainly due to capacity reasons and hasn't been testing the general population, but rather contact tracing and then testing the contacts as well as those who show symptoms and were in high risk areas. I think the different testing criteria in different countries skew the data.

 

This article is a few days old, however, in the press conference today with the Minister of Health and experts they seemed to confirm the same strategy. 

 

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-testet-deutschland-zu-wenig-im-vergleich-zu-suedkorea-a-4fb86f9e-1a5f-4434-b05f-7fad3dda34f4?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

 

yes, but my point is that testing is the best best forwarwarner thing you can do. all can do more more but that costs

Germany is better prepared than most countries, but no country can prepare for something last seen 100 years ago 

 

 

1 hour ago, engelchen said:

I am not convinced that the German data is an accurate respresentation and is missing some of the mild cases who haven't been tested.

 

ok then we go to a j2 argument,  if you you do not believe official stats, then the virus came from mars or some other random place 

Either accept accept what the governments tells us or nothing is believable. I think the EU governments are telling the truth at the moment !

if you believe different give me your source, maybe from Captain scarlet  

 

1 hour ago, engelchen said:

See if you can find this afternoon's press conference. The cost of testing didn't seem to be the focus, but rather the capacity (however, they could have just decided not to mention the costs).

 

 

The stats at least make more sense to me than the technical medical info.

Sure no government will say the reason why we do not do this this is because it cost too much,  I think no government has ever said that

you are saying let let people die because its cheaper, which country will say that ?

Governments please people to get re elected

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Here's a news story on how they are testing in Iceland:  https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/how-iceland-tested-the-most-people-for-covid-19-per-capita-in-the-world-81211973892

 

They are not under lockdown but have been agressively testing, tracking and quarantining people who may be infected.  If somebody wanted to do that though, they have to start early.  Once you already have many infected, the horse is out of the barn so to speak.

 

The numbers of infected can not really be compared between countries because of the different testing methods when some countries are testing at random, others might only be testing those that end up in hospital.  Deaths you can compare at least to a point although once a country is overwhelmed, at some point, they may no longer be testing or counting those who don't die in hospital.

 

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8 hours ago, fraufruit said:

 

I saw some pictures in China showing that the pollution levels are going back up as they open up different areas. The environmental advantages are only temporary, I'm afraid. 

Does show though how much pollution humans produce though despite some peoples protestations to the contrary.

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9 hours ago, Dembo said:

Germany has been testing more than any other European country (though they don't have data for NL in particular) with 200,000 tests per week.

According to Prof. Drosten meanwhile it´s about 500000/week. Reason being that University labs shared their knowledge with the respective regional laboratories early on and because there are sort of an old guy networks due to the fact that the head physicians of an area are usually former consultants of University hospitals so they know who to informally ask.

source (in German): https://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/videos/panorama/Drosten-erklaert-niedrige-deutsche-Sterberate-article21670930.html

 

I´m just wondering whether that is really so much different in other countries?

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51 minutes ago, jeba said:

According to Prof. Drosten meanwhile it´s about 500000/week. Reason being that University labs shared their knowledge with the respective regional laboratories early on and because there are sort of an old guy networks due to the fact that the head physicians of an area are usually former consultants of University hospitals so they know who to informally ask.

source (in German): https://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/videos/panorama/Drosten-erklaert-niedrige-deutsche-Sterberate-article21670930.html

 

I´m just wondering whether that is really so much different in other countries?

Yes that article I posted was very frustrating. Other countries have exact numbers, but in Germany it's "we think it's 200,000 ish but it may be 500,000". But the ratio of cases to deaths does back up the premise. When the UK says 90,436 then that sounds like it's accurate, but may simply be out of date.

 

I see the USA is now #1 in cases having overtaken China and Italy. Italy is about to overtake China, and Spain looks like it'll overtake Italy before long. But again: testing. 

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16 minutes ago, Dembo said:

Other countries have exact numbers, but in Germany it's "we think it's 200,000 ish but it may be 500,000

As I understand it that´s because in Germany there are many independent laboratories, most of them private ones,  and there is no central authority they have to report to.

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12 hours ago, engelchen said:

 

I wonder whether drug dealers will go bankrupt. And whether this will force some addicts to quit cold turkey.

 

I believe in the drug business dealers who fail to pay for the goods don't go bankrupt, they go dead!

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2 hours ago, jeba said:

As I understand it that´s because in Germany there are many independent laboratories, most of them private ones,  and there is no central authority they have to report to.

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each of the private firms will bill for each test, that can be counted.

 

I always think the Germans itemise everything, when I take my car for repair, even things like a 10 cent washer is on the bill. 

 

I do not beleive that the Germns do not have accurate figures for the number of tests performed, they itemize everything in a way that I have not seen in any other country - but of course I cannot provide a source for this :)

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35 minutes ago, yesterday said:

 - 

each of the private firms will bill for each test, that can be counted.

 

I always think the Germans itemise everything, when I take my car for repair, even things like a 10 cent washer is on the bill. 

 

I do not beleive that the Germns do not have accurate figures for the number of tests performed, they itemize everything in a way that I have not seen in any other country - but of course I cannot provide a source for this :)

 

 

It's anecdotal, but it's true... eg your example of car repairs. with every little last item, on an invoice. My Irish car repairman? He'll think a bit, then say, oh, that'll be 20 Euros, I guess. And that's it.

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