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2 hours ago, fraufruit said:

 

From the article:

 

Acknowledging that Trump is frequently a source of misstatement, the NBC News insider added: “I think the best way to handle the president in the briefing is that you handle the president like you handle the virus. He has to be contained and quarantined and his falsehoods have to be scrubbed so that they don’t rub off on you.”

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Another bad day in Italy infections up +6153, but deaths slightly down ( 662 down 20 from yesterday ), when are we going to see this turn around, its getting to be well late from the china lock down

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662 deaths in Italy today. Definitely we are at the peak.

m26.png.0f3d362def16330955868d5d6ada5298

Not enough data to simulate when it drops to meaningless, seems between 3-10 days from now.

We could still remain longer in a plateau, or even have a slight rise, if for example cases spread to the south of the country. I would need regional data to analyse individual curves in detail.

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30 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

662 deaths in Italy today. Definitely we are at the peak.

m26.png.0f3d362def16330955868d5d6ada5298

Not enough data to simulate when it drops to meaningless, seems between 3-10 days from now.

We could still remain longer in a plateau, or even have a slight rise, if for example cases spread to the south of the country. I would need regional data to analyse individual curves in detail.

 

You can find regional data here:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy  There is a big table further down which shows cases and deaths according to region by date, it's called  Daily COVID-19 cases in Italy by region

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I checked today the regional data in Italy. Rome, Naples, Milano and Torino are growing with a power law of about 2.5. I’m worried. And I ought to find something else to model, this is depressing.

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39 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Another bad day in Italy infections up +6153, but deaths slightly down ( 662 down 20 from yesterday ), when are we going to see this turn around, its getting to be well late from the china lock down

 

Is there any way to determine whether new infections are increasing or whether just the testing is increasing/finding more people who were infected earlier?

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3 minutes ago, engelchen said:

 

Is there any way to determine whether new infections are increasing or whether just the testing is increasing/finding more people who were infected earlier?


new infections are increasing exponentially in the southern cities (my previous lost) and dropping in Lombardy.

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24 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Agree with @Mike, it must be increasing in the rest, or non-locked down parts of Italy.

 

Last night, during one of the repeating news loops on Sky News, the mayor of Bergamo was being interviewed about the death rate.  He said he believed the published numbers were lower than the actual number of deaths in his city because people are dying at home without ever being treated at a hospital.  According to the mayor, these deaths are not included in the hospital statistics as either infected or dead.  I was only half listening the first time, but I listened intently the second time the report aired.

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12 minutes ago, JG52 said:

 

Last night, during one of the repeating news loops on Sky News, the mayor of Bergamo was being interviewed about the death rate.  He said he believed the published numbers were lower than the actual number of deaths in his city because people are dying at home without ever being treated at a hospital.  According to the mayor, these deaths are not included in the hospital statistics as either infected or dead.  I was only half listening the first time, but I listened intently the second time the report aired.

I was just reading about that (auf Deutsch):

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article206820523/Coronavirus-In-Italien-gibt-es-Zweifel-an-den-Todeszahlen.html

 

Quote

„Die Zahl der Sterbefälle müsste unter normalen Umständen bei ungefähr 35 liegen. In diesem Jahr haben wir aber 158 (Sterbefälle) verzeichnet, also 123 mehr als im Durchschnitt.

"The number of deaths under normal circumstances would be about 35. In this year we have 158."

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30 minutes ago, engelchen said:

 

Is there any way to determine whether new infections are increasing or whether just the testing is increasing/finding more people who were infected earlier?

It can be, it depends

If if done correctly ie having enough tests and disturbed in the right places and across different age groups, then yes you can see a trend of whats happening.

If you just test in one area, that does not have many cases, and not a cross different age groups etc etc, then no the data can be bad.

 

if you get good data, its a lead indicator, it allows you to plan, it allows you to shut down areas, before you get large numbers of deaths,  using the number of deaths, is kinda like shutting the barn door after its gone ie at that time you need to go into longer and deeper shut down measures - probably leading to more deathsno

 

The WHO said weeks ago the most important thing is concentrate on is the testing program, hopefully in the next couple of weeks we will be able to buy home testing kits ( on the car radio today BASF have got one which could hit the streets by April ) which can be used to determine if you should self isolate or not. Which means more people can go outside, more of a normal life, after that test are coming which will indicate if you already had the virus and got rid of it, thus gaining immunity to the virus, will will allow even more people to leave the house.  Testing will give us the ability to return to normal life earlier, than waiting for a vaccine -its that important period.

 

As JG52 said, and I watched the same program, a lot of deaths are not tested for CD-19, because its expensive at the moment - so we do not really have an accurate data source for that.

 

they say lies, dam lies and stats

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1 hour ago, yesterday said:

to buy home testing kits ( on the car radio today BASF have got one which could hit the streets by April )

 

I doubt that BASF will produce Corona testing kits. They produce bulk chemicals , but not that biochemical stuff.

I know that they promised to deliver desinfectant to hospitals, however, mixing ethanol or i-propanol with hydrogenperoxide and glycerine is not rocket science.

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27 minutes ago, AnswerToLife42 said:

I doubt that BASF will produce Corona testing kits. They produce bulk chemicals , but not that biochemical stuff.

I know that they promised to deliver desinfectant to hospitals, however, mixing ethanol or i-propanol with hydrogenperoxide and glycerine is not rocket science.

I imagine he means Bosch:

 

https://www.dw.com/de/bosch-stellt-coronavirus-schnelltest-vor/a-52925393

 

I wonder if I get an employee discount ;-)

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There was a police helicopter buzzing around here last night for like half an hour. We thought they were checking people were staying in but today found out that some individuals broke into a house with the occupants inside. This type of thing is really rare around here. I suspect drug addicts are getting desperate as shoplifting and normal daytime burglary are much more difficult now.

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51 minutes ago, yesterday said:

It can be, it depends

If if done correctly ie having enough tests and disturbed in the right places and across different age groups, then yes you can see a trend of whats happening.

 

Yes, but the Germans have decided to ration the testing mainly due to capacity reasons and hasn't been testing the general population, but rather contact tracing and then testing the contacts as well as those who show symptoms and were in high risk areas. I think the different testing criteria in different countries skew the data.

 

This article is a few days old, however, in the press conference today with the Minister of Health and experts they seemed to confirm the same strategy. 

 

https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/coronavirus-testet-deutschland-zu-wenig-im-vergleich-zu-suedkorea-a-4fb86f9e-1a5f-4434-b05f-7fad3dda34f4?utm_source=pocket-newtab

 

51 minutes ago, yesterday said:

if you get good data, its a lead indicator, it allows you to plan, it allows you to shut down areas, before you get large numbers of deaths,  using the number of deaths, is kinda like shutting the barn door after its gone ie at that time you need to go into longer and deeper shut down measures - probably leading to more deathsno

 

I am not convinced that the German data is an accurate respresentation and is missing some of the mild cases who haven't been tested.

 

51 minutes ago, yesterday said:

As JG52 said, and I watched the same program, a lot of deaths are not tested for CD-19, because its expensive at the moment - so we do not really have an accurate data source for that.

 

See if you can find this afternoon's press conference. The cost of testing didn't seem to be the focus, but rather the capacity (however, they could have just decided not to mention the costs).

 

51 minutes ago, yesterday said:

they say lies, dam lies and stats

 

The stats at least make more sense to me than the technical medical info.

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1 hour ago, Dembo said:

"The number of deaths under normal circumstances would be about 35. In this year we have 158."

 

35 being the entire year, not the first 3 months.

 

I just talked to a friend in America who lives in a nice country club neighborhood. She said that 2 of her neighbors have had their garages broken into and food stolen out of their big freezers. There is no corona virus in that town yet. And, yes, it is normal for Americans to have big freezers or refrigerators in their garages for storing beer, drinks, wine and frozen food.

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2 minutes ago, murphaph said:

 I suspect drug addicts are getting desperate as shoplifting and normal daytime burglary are much more difficult now.

 

I read something about the social problem that will come soon due to lack of hard drugs on the streets.   With closed airports and difficulties to transport things locally the product will become scarce soon.

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9 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

I read something about the social problem that will come soon due to lack of hard drugs on the streets.   With closed airports and difficulties to transport things locally the product will become scarce soon.

 

I wonder whether drug dealers will go bankrupt. And whether this will force some addicts to quit cold turkey.

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