4,885 posts in this topic

43 minutes ago, lisa13 said:

greenie for trying but that's already been posted.

 

9 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

I hadn't seen it before and still can't believe that I gave HF a greenie. :D

 

Haha! 

 

Vindicated! 

 

Hf99, making the world a better place one person at at time!

 

:D

 

45 minutes ago, lisa13 said:

what else you got?

 

Hmmm... nothing for the moment. But while we wait for that bloke with learning difficulties to post a meme and entertain us, here's a question for you guys!

 

What's the best time to go shopping these days?  I imagine the peak times have probably changed, or? 

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My "bold" prediction:

  • if we see today less than 700 deaths in Italy, the peak will definitely be during this week.
  • if we see less than 800 deaths, there is some chance the peak is during this week
  • if we see less than 900 deaths, there is a remote chance that the peak is still during this week.

To do better than that I would need to analyse data divided per region, but that is a lot of work...

This is because it could stabilize in the north but still grow in the south.

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My "bold" prediction: the UK will have the highest corona death rate in Europe

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Italy deaths were down, yesterday, but one day of better results is not enough of a trend for me.

 

Unfortunaly, even thou the UK has a quite low number of deaths at the moment, I also fear its going to go up 

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38 minutes ago, hellfire99 said:

 

What's the best time to go shopping these days?  I imagine the peak times have probably changed, or? 

 you are in Brussels.  How would we know?

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A purely anecdotal contribution: for the last two weeks I had a nasty virus infection and was sent to the hospital on suspicion of the COVID-19. The good thing is that I tested negative, and what's more reassuring is that (from what I saw) our local hospital still has a lot of capacity, and all medical staff are very well protected. Back in the states a lot of my friends are health workers and sadly the same cannot be said there. 

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9 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Italy deaths were down, yesterday, but one day of better results is not enough of a trend for me.

 

Unfortunaly, even thou the UK has a quite low number of deaths at the moment, I also fear its going to go up 

Im curve fitting the past 2 weeks and definitely you see a peak coming this week. I got scared with the Friday and Saturday numbers, but Sunday was OK. So if today is also OK, then there is definitely room to dream with a peak this week.

 

There could be surprises, especially in the south of the country, but if it stabilizes around 800 for 2 more days it means we are very close to the peak.

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Peak this week is expected by me, because its about the same time after the lockdowns occured in china, that the deaths started to fall - ie italy has been in lock down for about 2 weeks now

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@yesterday, exactly, but in Italy it was not as strict as in China. My point here is to use Italy as a benchmark to calculate peak after a serious lockdown, for an EU country.

Then you can use it to forecast Spain and other countries. And to fucking show to Boris that he is an idiot.

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17 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

@yesterday, exactly, but in Italy it was not as strict as in China. My point here is to use Italy as a benchmark to calculate peak after a serious lockdown, for an EU country.

Then you can use it to forecast Spain and other countries. And to fucking show to Boris that he is an idiot.

 

agreed, but I think using china and south korea - can give a rough guide.

I ploted with that tool I am using, a graph or UK, Itialy, Germnay, south  Korea and portugal yesterday, but did not publish it here because people are gtting sick of stats being publihed on here - it shows Portugal with a very very high rate rate of increse in death in the last week, one of the steepest rises I have seen on any country.

 

PS did your boss pursued you to go into work to day,  my boss is telling me to stay home with the laptop, because I have asthma which puts me in a high risk group if I get it, but I need to run my work through our target computer at the work place - I cannot be really productive at home - maybe I go there tomorrow

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County Monaghan as got it's first CV infected person. I've no idea though where that person is, if close or near. But it has arrived.

 

Remember I said that India would have a hard time with lockdown? One Indian state, the one I'm familiar with, is doing it. Tamil Nadu is closing its borders! For me it's unimaginable, with so many thousands of people officially living on the streets. But I suppose everything is possible. The article says they will be housed in hotels.  (Strangely, though, only till March 31st)

https://m.timesofindia.com/city/chennai/covid-19-tamil-nadu-to-be-under-lockdown-from-tuesday-evening-section-144-to-be-in-force/articleshow/74774087.cms

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How far ahead of other European countries actually is Italy, is it certain that the virus will be as bad in other countries or is Italy an outlier? 

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56 minutes ago, yesterday said:

 

agreed, but I think using china and south korea - can give a rough guide.

I ploted with that tool I am using, a graph or UK, Itialy, Germnay, south  Korea and portugal yesterday, but did not publish it here because people are gtting sick of stats being publihed on here - it shows Portugal with a very very high rate rate of increse in death in the last week, one of the steepest rises I have seen on any country.

Yes, I've been tracking it at home and Portugal is growing faster than italy in the first week. Problem there is that it occurred in retirement homes. Let's wait 1 or 2 weeks.

 

56 minutes ago, yesterday said:

PS did your boss pursued you to go into work to day,  my boss is telling me to stay home with the laptop, because I have asthma which puts me in a high risk group if I get it, but I need to run my work through our target computer at the work place - I cannot be really productive at home - maybe I go there tomorrow

We haven't discussed today yet, for the moment I am at home.

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Good news Italy, has a lowered death rate/per day an reduction of the number of new infections

still only a 2 day trend, lets hope it gets to 3 or 4 days - showing the measures are working

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In Germany the daily new case count seems to be levelling out, hopefully it will soon start to decline...

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10 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Good news Italy, has a lowered death rate/per day an reduction of the number of new infections

still only a 2 day trend, lets hope it gets to 3 or 4 days - showing the measures are working

Yes! Btw, it is not just a 2 day trend, it is a complete break of the exponential growth. Meaning it can still go up to 1000 in one of the following days, but that's just a statistical artifact. I have good confidence that the peak is during this week, if not already.

 

My prediction from Tuesday/Thursday looks quite good so far.

On 3/19/2020, 6:39:40, MikeMelga said:

Peak deaths per day is diverting more and more from exponential and seems to be around 700, which is consistent with what I've said a few days ago, between 500 and 1000, but closer to 500.

 

BTW, next Monday will pass 2 weeks after lockdown. As most people develop symptoms in the first 14 days, I expect that from Monday on we start having much better results, a more abrupt slowdown. I hope that 1 week from now we can start forecasting return to normality. As a first guess, I think total number of deaths will be below 25.000. If it slows down dramatically by mid next week, it could even be below 15.000.

m19_2.png.8ca529b8bd7c0a8fa0159f6660860b

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Nigeria records chloroquine poisoning after Trump endorses it for coronavirus treatment

 

Quote

Lagos, Nigeria (CNN)Health officials in Nigeria have issued a warning over chloroquine after they said three people in the country overdosed on the drug, in the wake of President Trump's comments about using it to treat coronavirus.

A Lagos state official told CNN that three people were hospitalized in the city after taking the drug. Officials later issued a statement cautioning against using chloroquine for Covid-19 treatment.
 
The remainder of the article has been redacted by admin to avoid copyright infringement.

 

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14 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Yes! Btw, it is not just a 2 day trend, it is a complete break of the exponential growth. Meaning it can still go up to 1000 in one of the following days, but that's just a statistical artifact. I have good confidence that the peak is during this week, if not already.

 

 

 

looking at this 

Capture.JPG.933cef9760e4d2a0e96b71681cc0

 

you can see there was a reduction in deaths and infections around the 16 th of March and feb 23-25

observe the data for the 14th march is wrong ....

 

but there have been times where there have been slight reductions for one or 2 days from the normal growth path

This 2 day downturn could be that again, but I hope Italy has turned the page on the virus.

Source as ever  https://corona.help/country/italy/log

 

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