Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

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@mtbiking, are you sure the M3 is not enough? Do you carry a lot of stuff or you have 3-4 kids? What age?

The rumour is the Y will come before end of March from China. And in the summer we start having the one from Berlin, but my guess is they will be sold out for months.

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10 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

@mtbiking, are you sure the M3 is not enough? Do you carry a lot of stuff or you have 3-4 kids? What age?

The rumour is the Y will come before end of March from China. And in the summer we start having the one from Berlin, but my guess is they will be sold out for months.

 

I want to be able to carry a lot of stuff without playing Tetris all the time and throw in a bike for good measure. It can be a bit smaller than my Passat but the Tesla is significantly smaller.  I've actually done a round in a colleague's Model 3 some time ago.

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On 20/01/2021, 16:13:22, MikeMelga said:

@mtbiking, are you sure the M3 is not enough? Do you carry a lot of stuff or you have 3-4 kids? What age?

The rumour is the Y will come before end of March from China. And in the summer we start having the one from Berlin, but my guess is they will be sold out for months.

 

You can't make this shit up, someone drove from behind against my car today (my wife was driving it, she's fine). It's not a fender bender, I'm getting a professional opinion tomorrow but the trunk's door and the rear bumper + sensors, etc are history and need to be replaced. It's at least 5 or 6 k€, which begs the question shall we do it or cash the insurance money in, sell the car as it is and get a new one now instead of in one or two years. Damnit, decisions to be made. 

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Well, you could buy the Model 3, use it for a year (while waiting for the Y) and then sell it to a relative/friend in Portugal, with no loss. The price difference is so big you might even make a very small profit.

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Tesla earnings call in 1h. In the meantime they updated their webpage with the new Model S... WOW!

Lowest range 663km, highest range 840km !!!

One more step towards service and entertainement. Both front and back monitors can be used for multiplayer game with PS5 controls (like the Model 3). But with a high end CPU and GPU to play more recent games. This is most likely the start of the Tesla App store. This will bring revenue of billions per year.

6011e1d3ddda2_modelS.jpg.40d7a5da09acf17

 

Numbers from 2020 look very good, will have more details in 1h.

EDIT:

  • numbers are below analysts expectations (but according to Tesla guidance), but still very good.
  • Profitable year ($700M), great increase in capacity and gross margin (25.6%!).
  • Shangai + Fremont now have together 1.050.000 cars capability. Berlin should add around 100.000 cars for 2021. But I think they will sandbag it and target lower numbers, well below 1M. But this also means total capacity for 2022 should be close to 2M cars.
  • Big increase in energy storage and solar installation
  • $19.4B cash

 

Remember: all this while building 2 new factories!

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Hearing the audio from the call, here are some highlights:

  • Open to license FSD and superchargers to other OEM
  • No commitment on dates for FSD. Expect lvl 4 or 5 late 2021
  • FSD monthly subscription next month
  • Model S refresh starting deliveries in February
  • Strong expansion of service centers and software to handle service requests
  • Cell production is still the largest bottleneck for expansion
  • Electric van still in their plans, but no cells to spare. Same issue on the Semi. Cars are more profitable
  • Still believes current FSD computer is good enough for FSD. New version is being developed, but it's an improvement, not a game changer
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Ok, got 24h to digest all information. My conclusion is that 2021 will be a weird year for Tesla.

Production guidance shows this. They target 750k cars or above. But (car) production capacity will be over 1 million. So either demand is not there, or there is some bottleneck.

They clearly said they are becoming again severely battery constrained. That's why Semi and Cybertruck will not see significant numbers in 2021. And that's why they can't target 1 million or more.

I also understood, from all Musk's stuttering, that they are really not sure how the new battery production will ramp up. They can already make the batteries, but in small numbers and with low yeld. There is the risk that they can't ramp up in time for Berlin, and things can go bad. That's why they are targeting a lower production. But it might be it goes well and they shoot well above.

 

I think the stock will not rise much during this year. Q1 and Q2 will be mostly void of news. A big trigger for stock uptick will be dramatic improvements in FSD. At the current pace I think they will achieve Level 4 autonomy in city driving somewhere in Q3 or Q4. Although this will be remarkable, I have no indication that they are working on the infrastructure for robotaxis, i.e. servers, databases, applications for customers to order it, etc. It's kind of useless if you achieve L4 or L5 if you don't have the infrastructure to monetize it.

That means they don't expect to gain money from a robotaxi fleet before mid 2022 and most likely only in 2023 or later.

 

Now something that came discrete. The new Model S will have a very powerful PC for gaming. Why is this important? This is a step above Netflix and moving towards an appstore and huge revenue. I think they will announce a small refresh to Model 3 and Y during summer that includes the same computer. Imagine this: you play at home, then you can also play in the car the same high end games. Either you pay it individually, or more likely, they will make a bundle with FSD subscription. Unlimited games, unlimited Netflix, plus FSD. I think something around 150-200€ per month. And I think more than 30% will go for it! For comparison, it was leaked that almost 40% of owners bought FSD!

Although older cars would have to be retrofitted for it, imagine that all of them already have it. By summer they should reach 2 million cars produced since 2013. Assuming 20% take the subscription, that's 8-10B€ per year of revenue!

 

Now looking 3 years ahead, assuming FSD is level 4 or 5, then commute is automatic, meaning lots of time to watch movies or play games. This could bump subscriptions to 70%. If they have, let's say, 5 million cars on the road with that capability, that means 60-80B€ revenue per year on subscription! They would be making more money on that than on selling cars!

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So.. Buy an over--priced EV then start buying all the apps and updates and get screwed over again...

 

I suppose netflix and games will be useful whilst waiting for a charge somewhere... 

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9 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Now something that came discrete. The new Model S will have a very powerful PC for gaming. Why is this important? This is a step above Netflix and moving towards an appstore and huge revenue. I think they will announce a small refresh to Model 3 and Y during summer that includes the same computer. Imagine this: you play at home, then you can also play in the car the same high end games. Either you pay it individually, or more likely, they will make a bundle with FSD subscription. Unlimited games, unlimited Netflix, plus FSD. I think something around 150-200€ per month. And I think more than 30% will go for it! 

So I would hope it’s illegal to drive while playing video games or watching Netflix.  Then would this be so that people can sit in their car during breaks and participate in these activities?  I find the whole deal weird and dangerous frankly.  How would you envision people using these services?  

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1 hour ago, BethAnnBitt said:

So I would hope it’s illegal to drive while playing video games or watching Netflix.  Then would this be so that people can sit in their car during breaks and participate in these activities?  I find the whole deal weird and dangerous frankly.  How would you envision people using these services?  

Very simple: right now those features are disabled except if the car is in park mode. Let's say they achieve Level 4 or 5 this year. Then in 2022 they would start applying for regulatory changes. Several states already allow full autonomous cars. On those states, Tesla would apply for the status and provide users with gaming and netflix during driving.

 

This is the point: in many countries, especially USA, commute times are very long. If you have a car where you can sleep, work, play games or watch movies is a game changer. That is worth easily 200€ per month for many, many people.

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One more point about Tesla earnings call. It does seem that they are sandbagging the profits. They are allocating most of the new factory buildig costs on the same year they are spent, instead of spreading it over a few years. This means their profits are much higher than reported. The rest is creative accounting.

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25 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Very simple: right now those features are disabled except if the car is in park mode.

 

Can't the kids play in the back seat at least? Many vans and such have entertainment built into the back for kids.

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On 27/01/2021, 22:55:54, MikeMelga said:

Tesla earnings call in 1h. In the meantime they updated their webpage with the new Model S... WOW!

Lowest range 663km, highest range 840km !!!

One more step towards service and entertainement. Both front and back monitors can be used for multiplayer game with PS5 controls (like the Model 3). But with a high end CPU and GPU to play more recent games. This is most likely the start of the Tesla App store. This will bring revenue of billions per year.

6011e1d3ddda2_modelS.jpg.40d7a5da09acf17

 

...

 

 

 

Tesla has also updated its Model X and offers a Plaid version with over 1,000 hp  https://www.tesla.com/modelx

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The most powerful force in the universe is the bell-curve.  Second to that is the product life-cycle.  Tech success depends on that "product extension" tail.

 

Capture.PNG

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6 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

This is the point: in many countries, especially USA, commute times are very long. If you have a car where you can sleep, work, play games or watch movies is a game changer. That is worth easily 200€ per month for many, many people.

I’m not a TESLA basher, but I do feel like the automobile centric culture we created in 🇺🇸 produced enormous negative externalities.  I would really prefer to see more areas be incentivised to develop better public transportation and bicycling infrastructure.  Maybe I’m just dreaming.  And I’m all for accident reduction which Elon’s technology seems to boast.  Of course part of the attraction for me moving to this region of Germany was the ability to not be automobile dependent.  🙂  

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6 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Very simple: right now those features are disabled except if the car is in park mode. Let's say they achieve Level 4 or 5 this year. Then in 2022 they would start applying for regulatory changes. Several states already allow full autonomous cars. On those states, Tesla would apply for the status and provide users with gaming and netflix during driving.

Wasn`t there a post a few pages back about an automated Tesla accident and you blamed it on the driver not actually checking on what the car was doing.

Surely if you have Netflix etc running that`s going to happen a lot more.

13 minutes ago, BethAnnBitt said:

 I would really prefer to see more areas be incentivised to develop better public transportation and bicycling infrastructure.  Maybe I’m just dreaming.

Unless Tesla makes the infrastructure then you wont get many people on this thread to agree with you.

I work a 3 shift model and would love to be able to get to work by bus but on earlies I couldn`t get there on time,on nights I get there 1.5 hours early and after nights 1 hour later despite it being only a 14 min drive.

I used to use the bus but then due to cutbacks they cancelled a lot of the runs.

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