Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

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@padjo although I agree that the M1 was a big positive surprise, it was done by a company they acquired. Internal Apple projects usually run poorly. They have difficulties in maintaining talent. This company is not like MS or Google. They don´t treat their employees very well, except for hefty monetary compensations.

 

I think Tesla will achieve FSD next year. Then they will need 1 more year for customizing to other major countries and to get full permission in US.

If Apple only shows up in 2024, it´s too late. By then Tesla, Mobileye and perhaps others will dominate the market.

 

IMO, Tesla and Mobileye powered systems will dominate the market, not Waymo. This is simply because they are more advanced on the camera side and because they have much more data than all the others. Data is king.

Mobileyes was in the lead in September, with some impressive demo, but Tesla is now IMO on the lead, as they can achieve similar performance without using HD maps.

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Thanks for all that opinion and info @MikeMelga . I have seen demos of the id 4 heads up display and it looked really impressive. I didn't know mobil eye was behind it and many other of the big auto companies https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/01/intels-mobileye-has-a-plan-to-dominate-self-driving-and-it-might-work/https://electrek.co/2020/04/03/vw-heads-up-display-id-3-electric-car/  . You are very bullish on Tesla and Mobileys achievement on FSD . Exact timelines don't really matter anyway.I agree with you on where we stand and who's in the race (tesla and mobileye) .  I don't know enough about Waymo but will defer to you here . Apple acquired PA semi in 2008 , long time ago but i get the point your making . But that's besides the topic here. Mainly about tesla , it's execution and competition. Here's to a rapid rollout of Berlin and i think VW are maybe others are in a better position that we thought. They have the driving systems, battery agreements with catl and others and production plants. they're not as efficient as telsa but they will improve. A couple of years ago or less it wasn't looking great for them. They will likely shrink but for now there seems to be a path for them. thats my take 

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38 minutes ago, padjo said:

Here's to a rapid rollout of Berlin and i think VW are maybe others are in a better position that we thought. They have the driving systems, battery agreements with catl and others and production plants. they're not as efficient as telsa but they will improve. A couple of years ago or less it wasn't looking great for them. They will likely shrink but for now there seems to be a path for them. thats my take 

The only way for traditional automakers to improve is through vertical integration and firing almost all chain of command, which will be very hard for them. Unions and the German government will not let them do it.

I saw a glimpse of hope from VW, the current CEO knows what he needs to do and he created a pilot project at Audi to prototype a start-up environment, without any of the current chain of command. If they achieve that, plus large vertical integration, they might survive.

 

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Another interesting thing Musk said that nobody noticed: their latest capital raise through stock selling will be used to pay off most debt!

This can save them a staggering $500M per year! That´s $125M extra profit per quarter. I think they will announce this at Q4/2020 earnings call.

It was not clear how much percentage of debt they will retire, but my guess is they will go for the one with highest interest, therefore even if they kill only 50% of the debt, that might be enough to reduce interests by 60-70%.

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Seeems Apple car rumours were just to mess up Tesla S&P 500 inclusion. Here is a more realistc view, with summary of different analysts.

Bottom line: not happening before 2027.

https://9to5mac.com/2020/12/27/apple-car-launch-2028-market-too-bullish/

 

BTW, for me these are the challengers for Tesla:

  • Mobileye. Same approach as Tesla, but can sell system to many competitors
  • Chinese manufacturers (of European brands with chinese  factories) flooding the market with cheap and crappy EVs. Already happening
  • VW (including AUDI) with a competitive battery AND competitive software AND competitive FSD (from Mobileye?) AND insurance business
  • Anyone with a revolutionary battery for trucks and buses. Won´t make much difference for cars. The battery/range wars will be over for cars before 2025

And I think except for the low end cars, all others with FSD will have to have their own insurance service. Tesla is the only one going that way.

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19 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

 

 

BTW, for me these are the challengers for Tesla:

  • Mobileye. Same approach as Tesla, but can sell system to many competitors
  • Chinese manufacturers (of European brands with chinese  factories) flooding the market with cheap and crappy EVs. Already happening
  • VW (including AUDI) with a competitive battery AND competitive software AND competitive FSD (from Mobileye?) AND insurance business
  • Anyone with a revolutionary battery for trucks and buses. Won´t make much difference for cars. The battery/range wars will be over for cars before 2025

 

 

So, the challengers are basically....   "The rest of the Automotive industry!"    :lol:

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@SpiderPig, if you look carefully, the largest threat to european automakers is not Tesla. It´s the Chinese invasion already starting. Up until now they couldn´t sell in Europe, nobody would buy it. Now they associate themselves with Volvo and Renault and will flood Europe with crappy cars.

 

The "rest" will either die or retreat to niche status. I think Mercedes will go back to more luxury segment and shrink substantially as a company (they already announced it). Perhaps they succeed in vans and trucks, if they transition quickly.

BMW is making some cheaper E cars in China and importing them to Europe. TBH, I think they are the most likely to fail. Either that or retreat to luxury niche.

I think VW can survive and even grow considerably. They have a guy with vision, question is if he can restructure the company fast enough.

Italian cars either ally themselves with other brands or they are dead within 5 years. French cars have actually moved to evs but they are facing criticism for moving production to China.

Porsche already found the winning formula, but they are niche.

 

On the long run, it does not matter. Car ownership will decline substantially from 2025 onwards. The same way Edison said "we will make lightbulbs so cheap only the rich will burn candles", Tesla and others will make car as a service so cheap only the rich will own cars.

This means from 2030 there might be only 2-5 major car manufacturers in the world. They will be owned by the companies which can establish themselves as mobility service providers.

This will come fast and impact will be tremendous. Place yourself in 2025-2030. You can either pay (guessing) 100-200€ per month for mobility or pay 30.000€ upfront for a car, plus maintenance, plus charging, plus insurance. It´s a no brainer. It´s the Uber effect, just much cheaper and more efficient.

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BTW, Tesla estimates that the cost to run a Robotaxi would be less than 18 cents per mile, compared with 62 cents per mile for U.S. ownership cost and $2 to $3 per mile for traditional ridesharing models.

Unsure what is cost or price, but this would mean around 3x cheaper to rent on demand than to own a car. And considering Europeans drive much less than Americans, this means in Europe it could be 5x cheaper to have mobility as a service. It´s revolutionary, more than smartphones and equally revolutionary as the internet or personal computers, with the difference it will self establish much faster than any of the other revolutionary changes in our lifetime.

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11 minutes ago, yesterday said:

and how will the Robotaxi, plug itself in to the charging station, or is the passenger supposed to do that

 

I asked Elon that very question at the last board meeting.  He said he hadn't thought that far out....

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On 12/24/2020, 3:15:31, catjones said:

 

 

 

So, you shorted it, right?

 

Bwhahaha.. you'd have to be insane to short. Why? Because you have the power of the Federal Reserve behind it - ready to help pump up the stock market when needed. That's the only reason the market is up while Covid is going on. You got any other reasons why? 

 

Never bet against the Federal Reserve! The only thing you can bet on is inflation.

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5 hours ago, yesterday said:

and how will the Robotaxi, plug itself in to the charging station, or is the passenger supposed to do that

Geez, is that the hardest thing you could think about?? All Teslas come with motorized charger port because of that.

BTW, this is overly complicated, a standard XYZ stage would be simpler and faster.

 

And this week, VW:

 

Start thinking to what you can convert your garage... you won´t need it in the future, even if you own a car. The car can park itself on a lower value garage.

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"Tesla could reach 500,000 deliveries in 2020 thanks to strength in China, late push in Europe, US: Wedbush"

 

Quote

Tesla Inc.could achieve its goal of 500,000 deliveries for 2020, a target that was not on the radar of Wall Street analysts going back to late spring/early summer, thanks to strength in China and a late push in Europe and the U.S., Wedbush analyst Dan Ives wrote in a note published Wednesday.

 

"Based on our initial analysis of demand and the delivery trajectory globally for Tesla in 4Q, it appears Musk & Co. will likely handily exceed Street and internal expectations," Ives wrote.

 

The analyst is expecting fourth-quarter deliveries to come in closer to 190,000 to 200,000 than the 180,000 he called the 'line in the sand.' "Heading into year-end and 2021, we are seeing a major inflection of EV demand globally with our expectations that EV vehicles ramp from ~3% of total auto sales today to 10% by 2025," Ives wrote. 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-could-reach-500000-deliveries-in-2020-thanks-to-strength-in-china-late-push-in-europe-us-wedbush-2020-12-30

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As this article points out, the addition of EV charging stations is complex and not analogous to ICE fueling, in that, we don't fuel our ICEs at home.  I'm somewhat surprised that I don't hear much about an electric gas can that can be portable and used to "fill" a stranded EV.

How Tesla, GM And Others Will Fix Electric Vehicle Range Anxiety

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OpTOKKKGWV8

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"Tesla reaches 500,000 production and delivery goal for 2020"

 

Quote

Tesla has announced that it has successfully reached its 500,000 production and delivery goal, which it set at the beginning of 2020.

 

The company released its Q4 2020 and 2020 annual production and delivery figures on January 2, which revealed that it accomplished the feat in production with 509,737 units produced. Its delivery figure was just 450 vehicles short of the 500,000 goal at 499,550. However, the exact number will be released with the Q4 Earnings Call later this month. Figures can vary up to .5%, the company says.

 

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-2020-500k-delivery-goal-reached/#:~:text=Tesla%20has%20announced%20that%20it,production%20with%20509%2C737%20units%20produced.

 

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries

 

 

 

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