Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

1,912 posts in this topic

On 19.12.2020, 21:20:19, SpiderPig said:

I still want to know why MM thinks 150 kg doesnt matter...聽 聽 聽

For context relevance, the related topic was solid state batteries being up to half the weight (best case).

Why is this not relevant? Because the consumer does not care if the car weights 150kg more or less. What they care is price and range.

Let's see the following cases:

Car A weights 1800kg. Range 500km. Cost 30.000鈧

Car B weights 1650kg. Range 500km. Cost 35.000鈧

Which car do you think people will buy?

Now let's redo the math for a small ferry (guessed values).

Ferry A weights 10.000kg. Operates for 2h. Cost 30.000鈧

Ferry B weights 10.000kg. Operates for 10h. Cost 35.000鈧

Or another way to compare:

Ferry A weights 20.000kg. Operates for 10h. Cost 60.000鈧

Ferry B weights 10.000kg. Operates for 10h. Cost 35.000鈧

Battery weight is only relevant for high density requirements, where weight saving is crucial. This means boats and airplanes.

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14 hours ago, Keleth said:

Porsche and I presume Tesla must be wasting money then making most of the panels etc out of Aluminium because it keeps the weight down.

Actually not. Tesla Model S is almost all aluminium, but the Model 3 has a lot of steel.

But I think the future is aluminium, not for weight saving, but because it is impossible to do the crazy stuff they want with steel.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giga_Press

Tesla bought 12 of these. Each can make half a car structure in 90 seconds. A future Model 3/Y will be done just with 2 large parts.

This technology does not work with steel.

Most of weight saving will come from the reduced number of parts, crazy shapes and no welding nor bolts. Not because it is aluminium.

The scale is impressive, as 12 of them are enough to make 3.5 million cars per year...

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5 hours ago, john g. said:

My Nicole bought me a new mask yesterday- looks good-made in China馃槀

They are all made in China unless you buy homemade or make them yourself in my experience.

The free ones all of us over 60's get at the pharmacy now are made in China.

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8 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

For context relevance, the related topic was solid state batteries being up to half the weight (best case).

Why is this not relevant? Because the consumer does not care if the car weights 150kg more or less. What they care is price and range.

Let's see the following cases:

Car A weights 1800kg. Range 500km. Cost 30.000鈧

Car B weights 1650kg. Range 500km. Cost 35.000鈧

Which car do you think people will buy?

Now let's redo the math for a small ferry (guessed values).

Ferry A weights 10.000kg. Operates for 2h. Cost 30.000鈧

Ferry B weights 10.000kg. Operates for 10h. Cost 35.000鈧

Or another way to compare:

Ferry A weights 20.000kg. Operates for 10h. Cost 60.000鈧

Ferry B weights 10.000kg. Operates for 10h. Cost 35.000鈧

Battery weight is only relevant for high density requirements, where weight saving is crucial. This means boats and airplanes.

But less weight means more range.

At the moment people want EVs because of the savings on fuel etc etc,but it will come down eventually to what range an EV has especially when it comes to buying fleet vehicle.

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11 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Battery weight is only relevant for high density requirements, where weight saving is crucial. This means boats and airplanes.

what about the logistical cost of getting a 300kg battery or 150kg battery to the garage or the "battery exchange depots" that will start to crop up shortly...

I bet you are also an Apple sheeple too....聽 聽聽:huh:

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2 hours ago, SpiderPig said:

what about the logistical cost of getting a 300kg battery or 150kg battery to the garage or the "battery exchange depots" that will start to crop up shortly...

Call ADAC and have the car towed there.:)

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5 hours ago, Keleth said:

But less weight means more range.

At the moment people want EVs because of the savings on fuel etc etc,but it will come down eventually to what range an EV has especially when it comes to buying fleet vehicle.

Please look in detail: the heavier car can have the same range while being cheaper. It just happens to be heavier.

This is the problem with EV discussions. Focusing on a single aspect makes you lose perspective.

Again, an example: the current Tesla Model 3 made in USA is lighter than the one made in China. Because they use batteries from Panasonic, not from CATL. But the range is the same. Why? They just increased the ammount of battery on the chinese version to offset the lower energy density. Result? It's around $3000 cheaper.

Most analystics evaluate cost per kwh and kwh per kg. I think that metric is inadequate from a whole system perspective. When talking of the whole car, you need to have the following metric: cost per km of range. The customer does not care how much it weights nor the energy density.

And to finalize, the number I gave (50% weight reduction) is best case without considering cooling nor support structure. Even a 50% cell level weight reduction will probably only mean a 20% package weight reduction.

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2 hours ago, SpiderPig said:

what about the logistical cost of getting a 300kg battery or 150kg battery to the garage or the "battery exchange depots" that will start to crop up shortly...

Battery exchange depots are a terrible idea that is fading out. Tesla Model S was designed for that but they gave up after attempting to do it in real life. Newer Tesla have no such capability. In the end it was a logistic nightmare to shave off at best 5 minutes of charging. Completely useless.

Worst, the car was more expensive and heavier due to that capability.

2 hours ago, SpiderPig said:

I bet you are also an Apple sheeple too...聽 聽聽:huh:

I hate working with macOS and iPhones. Unfortunately I have to do it professionally, but not every day. See? You are really trying to label me and failing.

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1 minute ago, MikeMelga said:

See? You are really trying to label me and failing.

If I wanted to label you, I would put you in the J虏 club....聽聽

Yes, you are a "blinkered idiot"... but not a total bafoon!

so the J虏 club stays free of MM...聽

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9082629/Tesla-valuable-worlds-seven-car-makers-combined-600bn.html

Tesla is now more valuable that the world's top seven car makers combined at $615bn and is the biggest entrant to the S&P 500 EVER - but experts warn the stock is too high and could plummet at any moment

  • Tesla joined the S&P 500 on Monday at $665 a share, making it the most valuable new entrant to the stock index ever
  • The company is currently worth some $615bn - more than Ford, Honda, BMW, GM, Daimler, Volkswagen and Toyota combined聽
  • But analysts say the stock is in bubble territory and likely to burst at any minute
  • Part of the reason is Apple's announcement earlier this week that it is producing its own self-driving car
  • It is also likely to fall with the rest of the market amid fears over a new variant of COVID-19
  • Analysts are calling the stock 'dramatically overvalued'聽聽
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5 hours ago, wien4ever said:

likely to burst at any minute

5 hours ago, wien4ever said:

likely to fall

5 hours ago, wien4ever said:

'dramatically overvalued'聽聽

So, you shorted it, right?

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On 23.12.2020, 21:49:56, wien4ever said:
  • Part of the reason is Apple's announcement earlier this week that it is producing its own self-driving car

I麓ve had a deeper look on this. It is no secret Apple is designing either a full car or most likely just the software for cars.

On one hand, Apple biggest strenght is their supply management control. On the other hand, that麓s also a big weakness. Apple has zero production capability and have no vertical integration. While this works well for smartphones, it has been shown that it won麓t work for EVs due to much tighter margins.

They would probably partner with their long time super factory Foxconn, but they don麓t have auto experience. This would take years to form.

I also had a deep technical look at the leaked battery technology. With the specs presented on the leaked information, this won麓t be competitive.聽 But again, the M1 chip they announced last month was a complete positive surprise, so perhaps they do come up with something good.

Regarding the FSD claim, they have not enough data. Data is king.

Veredict: possible, but unlikely. This rumour came too close to S&P500 inclusion, meaning it was probably a way to drop Tesla price.

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Interesting. I was just reading this the other day -

Quote

Elon Musk offered to sell Tesla to Apple but was turned down by Tim Cook, who refused to take a meeting, the electric car maker鈥檚 chief executive has claimed.

Mr Musk said he had offered to sell Tesla to the iPhone giant when the company was in crisis over the chaotic early production of its Model 3 car, a period believed to be around 2017.

He claimed he would have sold Tesla for around a tenth of its current $600bn (拢450bn) value, but Mr Cook refused to meet him to discuss the offer.

鈥淒uring the darkest days of the Model 3 program, I reached out to Tim Cook to discuss the possibility of Apple acquiring Tesla (for 1/10 of our current value). He refused to take the meeting,鈥 Mr Musk tweeted.

So Cook didn't buy Tesla for $60 billion and now it's worth $600 billion. The question I have is would Tesla be worth so much if Musk hadn't been at the helm?

source

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I think Musk exagerates the Tesla narrative sometimes, like he does for SpaceX. They were not that close to being bust. What I read is they had money for 2 months, but as soon as Model 3 started arriving at customers in large number, they turned to profit.

Maybe he was concerned about early quality problems could kill the brand perception.

Regarding loans, Musk himself was already worth billions back then, if he wanted he could finance Tesla for a few quarters, if he believed in the company.

Musk is a master in manipulating, we always need to frame what he says carefully.

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5 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Apple has zero production capability and have no vertical integration.

Those can be acquired, but Apple might be just using their "car" as a testing platform for their software.

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I think apple would like to have autonomous cars in cities all over the world . Profits would be huge per car so they wouldn't need to have as many cars produced as tesla is doing and planning to do at their factories. Will they get there is the question ?

They have the chips and the people to create a dojo (tesla cloud driving AI) like setup . They're working on a battery聽https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DS28us0cv0A聽 . They have deep pockets and they're years into this project with the project leader having previous worked in Google AI and reporting directly to apple CEO Tim Cook.聽
We know teslas fsd beta is very impressive and and the rate of improvement of that system, maybe apple can match or outdo them . 聽

Definately one to watch and competiton is good for the consumer. Those M1 macs are a big leap in performance/watt. Some nice things coming out of apple again. If Jobs were around i'd be a lot more bullish. Instead it's Musk on the other side. What he's done in the last while is at least as good and arguably already a bigger impact.聽

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