Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

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On 10/23/2020, 9:26:42, MikeMelga said:

Yep. No LIDAR, no HD maps, and yet it works!

 

Mark this: they just won the autonomous driving race! It will still take 2 years or so to make it robust, Mobileye is probably be as good as they are, but in the end they are the car company with more than 1 million cars on the road ready for it.

On 10/23/2020, 9:26:42, MikeMelga said:

 

 

2 years away, eh?

 

https://mashable.com/2015/12/25/self-driving-tesla-2-years/?europe=true

 

 

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On 10/23/2020, 9:26:42, MikeMelga said:

 

On 10/23/2020, 9:26:42, MikeMelga said:

 

 

Meanwhile Daimler is partering with Waymo, who have fsd cars on the road already.

 

But I'm not sure whether there is the demand for fsd. Most people prefer to drive than to be the passenger. That's human nature.

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3 hours ago, arsenal21 said:

 

Meanwhile Daimler is partering with Waymo, who have fsd cars on the road already.

Waymo has a very restrictive system. What they have is an advanced demonstrator that works very well in a very restricted scope:

  • At the moment it only works in extremely well mapped roads.
  • Every time the road changes, they have to remap it.
  • Every street has to be driven by a human operator hundreds of times before the car knows how to navigate it.
  • Requires high bandwidth internet connection all the time.
  • has remote operators intervening all the time.
  • Uses very expensive and energy hungry LIDAR
  • LIDAR might be forbidden due to safety issues
  • It still needs cameras like Tesla

 

Quote

 

But I'm not sure whether there is the demand for fsd. Most people prefer to drive than to be the passenger. That's human nature.

Agree, FSD is not for car owners, it's for robotaxi fleets. And here comes the interesting point: it's not about brand nor technology. Robotaxi is about price per km and scalability.

This will create a massive disruption on public transportation.

 

My personal guess is that only 10-15% of Tesla owners have FSD option.

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From here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Autopilot

 

It says 

In December 2015, Musk predicted "complete autonomy" by 2018

 

I think its nearly 2021 !!

 

Lets just wait and see when or if "complete autonomy" ever comes.

 

Maybe Musk is just trying to talk up the share price, which has been dropping lately.

 

Ps I am not a Musk or Tesla hater, its just Musk offenten makes claims that do not come or are late

 

 

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3 hours ago, yesterday said:

its just Musk offenten makes claims that do not come or are late

at least he makes claims well into the future, unlike having an airport party the day before opening.

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12 hours ago, yesterday said:

Ps I am not a Musk or Tesla hater, its just Musk offenten makes claims that do not come or are late

Actually, that is not true, there are many of his predictions that were on time or ahead of time. People focus on the ones that were not.

Example: Model Y production was ready 6 months ahead of schedule. Giga Shangai was ready a few months ahead of schedule. Giga Berlin seems to be going the same direction.

His 2015 prediction of 500.000 cars produced in 2020 is spot on!

 

FSD is much harder to predict. There are even specialists saying it will never be achieved (which is a stupid statement). Waymo has been working on it for 12 years!

 

Regarding pumping up the stock, it's quite the opposite. He has been saying for months that the stock is overvalued for 2020.

 

For me the point is that Tesla's solution sounds ready to mass delivery. Waymo and Mobileye are not ready to scale up nor deliver, they are still demonstrators. BTW, until recently Mobileye was the most advanced system, not Waymo.

Now we already have two distinct companies showing that LIDAR is not required, giving them a huge price, power consumption and safety advantage.

But only one, Tesla, is vertically integrated, from building their own cars, their own software and even their own insurance. They have a holistic plan, others are just focused on technology. People don't talk much about it, but Tesla insurance will be incredibly profitable and will be extremely competitive against normal insurance, due to the data Tesla can get from the cars and due to integration with FSD.

Example: they can assume repair cost and civil liability costs if the car provokes an accident with FSD on. No other car company nor tech company nor insurance company will be able to do that! It is only possible with vertical integration, which no one else is doing!

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5 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Actually, that is not true, there are many of his predictions that were on time or ahead of time. People focus on the ones that were not.

Example: Model Y production was ready 6 months ahead of schedule. Giga Shangai was ready a few months ahead of schedule. Giga Berlin seems to be going the same direction.

Oh come on.Predicting the factory you`re building will be open ahead of schedule is not in the same ballpark as predicting a technology you`re working on will be ready by a certain time.

Didn`t he predict Neuralink  would be availabe in 2021.That`s not looking likely is it.

Didn`t he also claim they would overtake Apple in terms of value ?

 

The man has ideas way ahead of his time but stop the damn hero worship.He`s a bit Trumpian in that respect as he always has to make things sound bigger and better than they are and in the end just ends up looking stupid.

 

5 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Example: they can assume repair cost and civil liability costs if the car provokes an accident with FSD on

Didn`t a judge rule in an accident case (not Teslas fault) that the person in the car must monitor the controls etc all the time ?

If this is so then what actually is the point of it.

If I had a self driving car I wouldn`t want to sit there watching it drive itself as that sort of defeats the object of having it.

Sort of like having a 3D TV and watching it without wearing the glasses.

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Another early delivery from Musk -

 

Quote

 

As a refresher, in 2016, South Australia experienced a near total blackout after a crazy storm brought 80,000 lightning strikes and at least two tornadoes to the area. When a politician blamed the blackouts on the push for renewable energy, Musk and Tesla bet they could power the area with the company's PowerPacks within 100 days—and did it in 60.

In just two years, the Neoen-owned Hornsdale Power Reserve—literally a facility full of PowerPacks that receives and stores energy from nearby wind and solar farms—has worked as advertised, saving South Australia more than $100 million in network costs. By storing power up to its capacity of 100 MW, this “battery” can absorb brief blips in the grid surrounding it, reducing outages for residents and easing the burden on businesses or facilities that lose money, product, and more during those outages.

 

 

the rest

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9 hours ago, Keleth said:

Oh come on.Predicting the factory you`re building will be open ahead of schedule is not in the same ballpark as predicting a technology you`re working on will be ready by a certain time.

Point is his predictions not all wrong as the media portraits.

 

9 hours ago, Keleth said:

Didn`t he predict Neuralink  would be availabe in 2021.That`s not looking likely is it.

Yes. We are not in 2021. In August also nobody predicted the current FSD beta would be so good. Exponential development is hard to predict.

 

9 hours ago, Keleth said:

Didn`t he also claim they would overtake Apple in terms of value ?

Yes he did. In the meantime, Tesla stock rose 10x since the prediction. Apple stock rose 3x. The current market predictions for Tesla do put it on a higher valuation than Apple within 10 years. But he never put a date on it.

 

9 hours ago, Keleth said:

The man has ideas way ahead of his time but stop the damn hero worship.He`s a bit Trumpian in that respect as he always has to make things sound bigger and better than they are and in the end just ends up looking stupid.

Let's put this on the other way: in 2010 I told my friends that Musk would probably be the most important person on this century, or at least the first half of the century. They laugh, most of them never heard of him. You will probably laugh on this in 2020. You won't laugh in 10 years. 

I have a clear understanding on how he and his companies work and where they are heading. This guy is our best chance to beat climate change and to bring back the space age. You and others simply dismiss it as hero worshiping. It is not, it is a clear vision that this is one of those disruptive people that don't come along often. And instead of making toy phones, he is actually disrupting multiple business types. It is not about ideas ahead of his time. It is well known SW development processes applied to non SW projects. This, together with big thinking.

 

9 hours ago, Keleth said:

Didn`t a judge rule in an accident case (not Teslas fault) that the person in the car must monitor the controls etc all the time ?

If this is so then what actually is the point of it.

All level 0 to 3 require active monitoring, independently of being Tesla or not. The rest will have to wait for regulatory approval, but Tesla has been very clear about it for years.

 

9 hours ago, Keleth said:

If I had a self driving car I wouldn`t want to sit there watching it drive itself as that sort of defeats the object of having it.

Sort of like having a 3D TV and watching it without wearing the glasses.

If you had a long commute from Munich to Ingolstadt every day you would appreciate it every day. I don't have FSD option because my commute does not justify it.

But for most people this will be mini vans with 7-9 seats without a driver.

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I think that Musks  team also have the best chance of removing the steering wheel, but that does not mean I think he will achieve it

 

But we will all have to wait to see 

 

By the way, it seems apple is working on an e-ear called Titan, but everything is very hush hush, like always with apple, maybe they have an e-car with FSD type driving

 

Maybe one of them Tesla, Google, apple or Tesla will make it work, I do not think so, well not in the short term

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1 hour ago, yesterday said:

By the way, it seems apple is working on an e-ear called Titan, but everything is very hush hush, like always with apple, maybe they have an e-car with FSD type driving

Apple has no chance of getting it to work by themselves. Apple is great at product + feature design and controlling suppliers. They develop much less by themselves than people think. Also their internal SW development is a mess.

The only chance of them getting it to work is to acquire another ADAS company (they did it last year) and avoiding fucking them up with their corporate rules. The second part remains to be seen, because Apple does not have a tradition of corporate acquisitions.

Apple is sitting in a huge pile of money and desperately wants to stop being a one-trick pony. But their whole structure is not geared to innovation, it is geared to feature and product development (in which they excel!) and finding the best suppliers for the technology itself.

 

 

 

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On 11/8/2020, 5:02:54, MikeMelga said:

All level 0 to 3 require active monitoring, independently of being Tesla or not.

Yess but my point is if you have a self driving car and you have to constantly monitor it then that to me and probably many others not the point of having a self driving car.

 

On 11/8/2020, 5:02:54, MikeMelga said:

If you had a long commute from Munich to Ingolstadt every day you would appreciate it every day.

Why ?

If I have to constantly monitor it then to me there`s not a lot of difference between that and driving it.

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I drove from Schwarzwald to Munich via Bodensee in somewhat heavy fog last Saturday evening. Once we reached the Autobahn I used Autopilot the whole way, and it made the drive a LOT less stressful. Autopilot is better than me at keeping to the middle of the lane, especially in limited visibility.

 

Instead of focusing on microcorrections to hold the lane, I was able to concentrate farther down the road, looking for deer, other cars, etc.

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42 minutes ago, Keleth said:

Yess but my point is if you have a self driving car and you have to constantly monitor it then that to me and probably many others not the point of having a self driving car.

Why ?

If I have to constantly monitor it then to me there`s not a lot of difference between that and driving it.

Take a 500km drive with the current Tesla basic autopilot and you realize how comfortable it is. My best description is that you feel as tired as a passenger after a long trip.

Another example: take a 40 minute commute in the mittlerer ring in Munich with the basic Autopilot. It´s just relaxing.

 

Constant monitoring means 10x less attention than actual driving. The current state is good enough to divert your eyes for 2 seconds. This makes a huge difference. The car will also quickly tell you if it needs intervention. This is not black and white. You don´t go from full attention to sleeping. The current basic autopilot is good enough for relaxing. I don´t care about commute times any more. I don´t bother changing lanes. Just put some smooth jazz and relax. Of course no noise from the engine helps a lot. Commutes went from pain to pleasure.

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BTW, Model 3 has an updated range! New Panasonic battery chemistry, new thermal management system and other improvements means you now get 70km more range with the same price and weight! They also added power liftgate (finally!) and better soundproofing.

EPA range (which is very realistic) puts the AWD version at 570km, which means around 640km WLTP.

There are also reports that charging is even faster, but unconfirmed, we will get some hard data within 2 weeks.

 

This is all before the new batteries announced in September. I expect the range to increase within a year, or the price to go down and range is maintained.

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What do these ranges actually mean, MM? Would that be 570 km doing 140 on the autobahn for example?

 

Interested because we have to drive a little over 500 km to get to our boat. Not having to stop for charging would be cool.

 

 

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1 hour ago, fraufruit said:

What do these ranges actually mean, MM? Would that be 570 km doing 140 on the autobahn for example?

 

Interested because we have to drive a little over 500 km to get to our boat. Not having to stop for charging would be cool.

 

 

 

maybe this helps https://teslike.com/   lower down in the table you can see kms not miles

 

Table only goes up to 130kph, the figures should be less for 140 kph.

 

But the answer, looks like you have to stop at least once for the best Tesla's and probably 2 or more times for the cheaper version of the car.

But as everybody says, its nice to take a break every so often anyway

 

Of course I respect MM ideas because he has one

 

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4 minutes ago, yesterday said:

 

maybe this helps https://teslike.com/   lower down in the table you can see kms not miles

 

Table only goes up to 130kph, the figures should be less for 140 kph.

 

But the answer, looks like you have to stop at least once for the best Tesla's and probably 2 or more times for the cheaper version of the car.

But as everybody says, its nice to take a break every so often anyway

 

Of course I respect MM ideas because he has one

 

 

That data is from Sept 2019...

 

 

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