Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

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On 7/15/2020, 8:42:55, yesterday said:

Wow I do not see a parkplace, for the workers - looks like a nice place to work

 

They won't need one. Robotaxis, remember?

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27 minutes ago, catjones said:

are they paying for the giga with the green credits they sell to fiat et. al. ?

It´s like asking if I´m paying tonight´s champagne with the profit I´m having on Tesla stocks... :D

Money is money. It comes in from different sources and comes out for different targets.

 

But trying to seriously answer your question, the current CAPEX is similar to the income from green credits. So Giga Berlin, Giga Shanghai and Giga Austin are being paid by green credits, yes.

 

Im following live the Q&A from ER and they say that they expect to double regulatory credits this year. Mostly from Fiat.

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A few more information:

  • Berlin will be served by locally produced batteries
  • they have >$8B in cash and growing
  • A compact model is coming. The one I mentioned a month ago. Mainly for Europe and China
  • Austin was chosen over Tulsa for the cybertruck factory. Work already begun
  • Tesla insurance will be expanding slowly, but IMO they will take over this industry too
  • They are giving up on a cheaper Model Y, they think 500km range (EPA, 560km WLTP) is the minimum they will offer in future models
  • cheap battery from China, Korea, will allow very cheap cars, and the current high performance batteries will be reserved for more expensive vehicles (Model S, Semi, etc)
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14 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

It´s like asking if I´m paying tonight´s champagne with the profit I´m having on Tesla stocks..

actually, the irony is that fiat is paying tesla to help put them out of the market and fiat is buying the champagne to celebrate.

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Rumors are that if Fiat did not have Tesla for the credits, they would go bust.

Tesla is using this money to build more factories, while staying profitable.

I think they will announce a second factory in Europe quite soon, with this EU incentive package, I expect huge subsidies for EVs and Giga Berlin will not be enough.

Now the question is where. Could be Netherlands, France, Spain or UK... My guess is UK, as long as UK reaches a decent trade deal with EU.

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The video is factually wrong on many things and misses a bunch of other things. Here are few:

  • They bring in an ex-Tesla engineer to somehow bash Tesla, but they forget to mention that he worked in production, NOT on ADAS project
  • Tries to imply that Tesla is going without LIDAR to cut costs and that no other company is going that path. That is plain false, as Mobileye is going the same path and IMO they are currently ahead of the ADAS race, although Tesla might pull ahead in the next few months. In any case, the 2 companies ahead of the game do NOT use LIDAR
  • Completely ignores Tesla´s largest advantage compared to all others: DATA! And in machine learning, data wins.
  • Says Autopilot is no better than other systems on the road, but that is simply not true. Short example: which other production car stops at a red light right now?
  • Does not talk about the current SW rewrite that should be available by the end of the year. It is supposed to get us close to ADAS. If it does not, then this is really far away
  • Does not give the hard data about safety, just pushes the individual cases of accidents. Why are we still talking about individual accidents from 2016?
  • In the end, it does not give an answer to the question, it´s just a clickbait title

 

Sorry, this is typical FUD. To their credit, at least they actually gave a Tesla owner experience perspective. Because what I usually see are people bashing Tesla without ever stepping in one.

You know why media does this videos? Because they found out that despite Tesla spends no money on advertisement, they can make a lot of money by bashing Tesla.

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13 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

The video is factually wrong on many things and misses a bunch of other things. Here are few:

there are factual problems with this video as you say, but also many point that are correct about auto pilot that you seem to ignore from the video

13 hours ago, MikeMelga said:
  • They bring in an ex-Tesla engineer to somehow bash Tesla, but they forget to mention that he worked in production, NOT on ADAS project

Did not know and agree with you

  • Tries to imply that Tesla is going without LIDAR to cut costs and that no other company is going that path.
  • Musk himself says Lidar is too expensive  https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/22/anyone-relying-on-lidar-is-doomed-elon-musk-says/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEx4fYOIzt-9J6qS1PJ-bSKuoDVNM5dARBBh0fYubeG_X103vZpJ9sUtXud5FdvhQswNxZj4DLG7ssbBIK3JAv8NuDj4G-kcNSrlyDxx2U3HO-2z8TYbmjq9bDNDidis0mw_If2AUyisgaBnoY-6ROso_ImspSuOjJ3MqIjwL-40
  •  
  • That is plain false, as Mobileye is going the same path
  • Most self -drive companies are going with Lidar
  •  
  •  
  • Completely ignores Tesla´s largest advantage compared to all others: DATA!
  • In the video, I could see one Tesla driver saying Tesla had the DATA advantage, cannot see why you did not see it
  •  
  •  
  • Says Autopilot is no better than other systems on the road, but that is simply not true. 
  • I would like to see an independent report, comparing the safety features between systems, not the number of features it offers, that more important to me
  • Does not talk about the current SW rewrite that should be available by the end of the year. It is supposed to get us close to ADAS. If it does not, then this is really far away Jam tomorrow I waht to know the current situation, Elon often makes claims that are not met
  • Does not give the hard data about safety, just pushes the individual cases of accidents. Why are we still talking about individual accidents from 2016?
  • There are AP crashes last year and this, I want to see an independent report comparing the Tesla, Mercedes and other car companies - AP systems have been fitted to petrol/diesel cars for years, so there should be safety data on them - where is it ?
  • In the end, it does not give an answer to the question, it´s just a clickbait title

 

It did question the Tesla approach to safety, there is no active system to check the driver is awake or paying attention like in other systems -which seems useful in a system that is not proven as of yet. - you seem to have forgotten that

 

The term Autopilot infers it does everything for you, other systems are called driver assist, because that what it actually is at the moment, a Munich court decided its a miss use of language to describe what it is not  https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-53418069 again you did not see that in the video.

 

13 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Sorry, this is typical FUD. To their credit, at least they actually gave a Tesla owner experience perspective. Because what I usually see are people bashing Tesla without ever stepping in one. You seem to forget things said in the video and are backed up in the legal system

You know why media does this videos? Because they found out that despite Tesla spends no money on advertisement, they can make a lot of money by bashing Tesla. 

A Lot of people get angry on both sides, I do not know, because I do not have an independent report comparing the systems and outlining, which is safer. Yeah I am not against Tesla and would like FSD, but I do not see the Mercedes system drive into a overturned lorry on the autobahn, like I can with Tesla ( this year or last), maybe I just searched for the wrong thing

13 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

 

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Those start ups have to show results for investors. LIDAR gives them fast early results. Then they hit a brick wall and claim "ADAS is 10 years away, keep sending me money".

The LIDAR approach was also started before the huge advances in machine learning and realtime calculation.

 

Musk said LIDAR was expensive, because of the sales argument. Robotaxis are all about cents per km. A LIDAR system is not only expensive, but it consumes a lot of power (although there is great progress there). Also they weight more on the car and hurt drag, so hurt consumption. As robotaxis will only be competitive being electric, the consumption is a huge problem for LIDAR.

 

At the moment there is no independent report I am aware of, but Tesla releases their own reporting and the numbers, although metrics are highly debatable, show not only a higher safety on using autopilot, but also that the gap is increasing (50% increase last quarter), i.e., the system is getting better really fast.

https://www.tesla.com/de_DE/VehicleSafetyReport?redirect=no

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9 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Those start ups have to show results for investors. LIDAR gives them fast early results. Then they hit a brick wall and claim "ADAS is 10 years away, keep sending me money".

The LIDAR approach was also started before the huge advances in machine learning and realtime calculation.

So they aren`t using it to save money then or what ?

 

 

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2 hours ago, Keleth said:

So they aren`t using it to save money then or what ?

It´s simple: these startups buy these LIDAR from LIDAR companies. Those LIDAR already come with a lot of support SW (SDK). This SW immediately give you a 3D point map.

Meaning that a handful of developers with half a year of work with one of these LIDAR will be able to create a simple demo that navigates on a small stretch of road. They add some line marker recognition with a 2D camera and you have something to show.

You make the demo, show it to investors waiting to join the ADAS bandwagon and boom! You get a few tens of millions of dollars!

 

The problem comes later. They realize that having an accurate 3D representation of the world is not the hard part. The hard part is the situation awareness: where are the line markers and what do they mean, traffic signs, crossings, cars changing lane, etc. And that is not solvable by LIDAR, you need cameras, and even Waymo agrees with that. This comes to the important point: ALL ADAS projects agree that 2D cameras are mandatory. The real question is if LIDAR is required or not.

To simplify it: all LIDAR approaches will have to go through Tesla´s development path (2D cameras) for over 90% of the problem. So even if Tesla goes back in the decision and they go with LIDAR, most of their effort will be reused.

 

Here is an excellent example where LIDAR is 100% useless and you need a camera based system. Highly recommended video.

 

 

BTW, nobody mentioned, but several systems have radar also. But it seems that recent advances in image machine learning are making it obsolete. My understanding is that Tesla nowadays uses radar mostly to calibrated and validate the camera base system and for collision detection. My prediction is that radar will also not be required, except perhaps for difficult conditions like fog or snow... to be seen.

 

Another point on these alternative approaches. Except for Tesla and Comma.ai, all other projects rely on HD maps, which are expensive to build and are outdated after a few days. Meaning if a new construction site changes the road considerably, all other projects will have a real tough time navigating, until the maps are updated... or a simple accident that closes a lane can have the same effect.

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Not about Tesla but E-autos in general and that 6000 Euro premium. 

 

My husband was set to buy a new VW Up! as with that premium it was in financial reach. He called around to see what some dealers could offer pricewise and delivery times as well. 

 

One dealer in NRW would only sell the car if my man paid 6000 Euros down and had the car signed over to the dealership's name (as 1st owner). Nope. 

 

Another offered to get him the VW 'within nine months.' 

 

Another offered 'starting at 12 months, maybe a bit longer' and said it's a 50/50 chance that you are still waiting for the car when the preium expires end of 2021. 

 

Then he looked in some online forums and saw other people mentioning they'd had extended waiting time for delivery.

 

Unless the preium offer is extended beyond end of 2021 you may have to pay full price because your delivery time went over the end of 2021? 

 

Anyone know anything about this? 

 

 

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Good question, I don't know what counts; order date, invoice date, registration date... My guess is registration date. Anyone?

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On 7/28/2020, 12:02:59, MikeMelga said:

It´s simple: these startups buy these LIDAR from LIDAR companies. Those LIDAR already come with a lot of support SW (SDK). This SW immediately give you a 3D point map.

Meaning that a handful of developers with half a year of work with one of these LIDAR will be able to create a simple demo that navigates on a small stretch of road. They add some line marker recognition with a 2D camera and you have something to show.

You make the demo, show it to investors waiting to join the ADAS bandwagon and boom! You get a few tens of millions of dollars!

 

The problem comes later. They realize that having an accurate 3D representation of the world is not the hard part. The hard part is the situation awareness: where are the line markers and what do they mean, traffic signs, crossings, cars changing lane, etc. And that is not solvable by LIDAR, you need cameras, and even Waymo agrees with that. This comes to the important point: ALL ADAS projects agree that 2D cameras are mandatory. The real question is if LIDAR is required or not.

To simplify it: all LIDAR approaches will have to go through Tesla´s development path (2D cameras) for over 90% of the problem. So even if Tesla goes back in the decision and they go with LIDAR, most of their effort will be reused.

 

Here is an excellent example where LIDAR is 100% useless and you need a camera based system. Highly recommended video.

 

 

BTW, nobody mentioned, but several systems have radar also. But it seems that recent advances in image machine learning are making it obsolete. My understanding is that Tesla nowadays uses radar mostly to calibrated and validate the camera base system and for collision detection. My prediction is that radar will also not be required, except perhaps for difficult conditions like fog or snow... to be seen.

 

Another point on these alternative approaches. Except for Tesla and Comma.ai, all other projects rely on HD maps, which are expensive to build and are outdated after a few days. Meaning if a new construction site changes the road considerably, all other projects will have a real tough time navigating, until the maps are updated... or a simple accident that closes a lane can have the same effect.

TLDR.

Simple question.

Are they not using it to save money ?

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yes, thats what Musk has said.

 

But Musk also thinks LIDAR does not improve the saftey of the system as well.

 

So, take your pick, both can be true.

 

For me, the more sensors you have on the car the more data you can analyse before the car computer makes a deceision to do something, maybe Tesla can make a safe system just using camers and radar, someday, but they have at this point a record of fatel car crashes, anything that can be done to improve that should be done, even it means spending money on a LIDAR system - the more sensors you have, the better chance you have of seeing a potencail acceident.

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On 7/30/2020, 11:15:23, Keleth said:

TLDR.

Simple question.

Are they not using it to save money ?

No. Main reason is to save range. LIDAR are getting cheaper, but hurt range.

 

On 7/31/2020, 8:14:25, yesterday said:

yes, thats what Musk has said.

It was expensive, it is still a bit expensive, but price will go down.

 

On 7/31/2020, 8:14:25, yesterday said:

For me, the more sensors you have on the car the more data you can analyse before the car computer makes a deceision to do something, maybe Tesla can make a safe system just using camers and radar, someday, but they have at this point a record of fatel car crashes, anything that can be done to improve that should be done, even it means spending money on a LIDAR system - the more sensors you have, the better chance you have of seeing a potencail acceident.

I think when LIDAR becomes cheap and especially less power hungry, they might go for it.

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