Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

[yesterday 2,027]

and who can say how far it will go

[CincyInDE 3,311]

Greetings from Croatia!

 

[MikeMelga 7,325]

On 6/10/2020, 9:52:34, yesterday said:

and who can say how far it will go

My bet is $3000-$6000 in 3-4 years. People are completely underestimation car-unrelated stuff like:

• Humongous amount of Data! (see Tesla insurance as example)
• Self driving, Robotaxi (between $30B and $200B)
• solar
• energy storage (going to be fucking HUGE!)
• HVAC/complete Tesla home ecosystem

I also see them becoming specialists in making factories. And at some point they might just sell powertrains for other car manufacturers.

 

TBH I think Tesla will just spread into a vast conglomerate of products and services.

Of course then the maturity comes in, and innovation will fall, and competitors will catch up. But I don't see that happening in the next 5 years.

 

BTW, for those doubting their current market cap, it is actually on the same ballpark as Google in terms of market cap/revenue.

[catjones 1,702]

2 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

My bet is $3000-$6000 in 3-4 years.

 

Stock splits,issuing additional shares etc. will make this forecast hard to verify or plan for.  Forecast market cap is a better number.  If shares remain the same, you're saying stock price will increase from (let's make this easy) $1000 today to 3-6 times in 3-4 years or market cap from $173B today to $519B- $1T in 3-4 years.

[MikeMelga 7,325]

10 hours ago, catjones said:

 

Stock splits,issuing additional shares etc. will make this forecast hard to verify or plan for.  Forecast market cap is a better number.  If shares remain the same, you're saying stock price will increase from (let's make this easy) $1000 today to 3-6 times in 3-4 years or market cap from $173B today to $519B- $1T in 3-4 years.

Exactly, $1T is the target I'm looking at. Stock splits is irrelevant, that's only a mechanism to make trading simpler, has zero effect on market cap.

 

My reasoning: Tesla has to be valued as a tech company, not as a car company.

 

Alphabet (parent of Google) had $160B in revenue last year. Right now it is valued around $1T.

Tesla had $24.6B in revenue last year. This year, without Corona, would be around $30B, due to sales increase in China and Europe.

At $30B, this is 5.3x less than Alphabet. So multiplying a market cap of $173B by 5.3 = $922B. Meaning Tesla has the same market valuation as Alphabet, compared with revenue.

But of course for this to happen they need to grow (according to my prediction) 3-6x in the next 3-4 years. For the minimum value (3x), this means they would need to be selling around 1.8 million cars per year (if we use cars as a growth metric). This is totally realistic from logistical point of view. Each (new) Giga factory can go up to 750.000 cars per year.

Giga Europe and China can then make 1.5M within 2 years. Fremont can add 0.5. That's already above 1.8M.

Then add the upcoming Texas factory (Cybertruck, Semi), second european factory (England?) and a third US factory or second chinese one and you reach the upper bracket, logistically wise.

My guess is that they will launch a new factory every 9-15 months in the next few years.

 

Of course, all of this is only valid from a logistical point of view. The other part is demand. But right now it seems demand will be extremely strong.

 

There are completely untapped markets, like the truck/van market. As soon as there are a few competitors in that area, I am sure EU will "force" electric trucks/vans inside large cities, for air and noise pollution concerns. Either through a high tax on new ICE trucks/vans or through ban zones depending on emissions. Or simply forcing large transport companies to a minimum of EV trucks/vans on the fleet new purchases.

 

But for me the one with highest potential is energy storage. This alone can halt climate change AND add economical benefits. There will be a big push for it as soon as battery production can be scaled up.

 

[catjones 1,702]

7 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

My reasoning: Tesla has to be valued as a tech company, not as a car company.

 

My concern with your statements is that they are logical extrapolations of today's world.  As a former boss of mine (VP Sales/Marketing) would say around annual planning time, "Our forecasts always seem to be going up.  Which of our competitors is going to give up share and roll over?" and then he would force his marketing managers to delineate exactly where our forecasted market share would be coming from.

Elon is entering traditional markets with new or improved technology.  Since all tech can be copied (legal or illegal) he must stay ahead of the wolves who have a lot at stake.  They've analyzed Tesla too.

[MikeMelga 7,325]

13 hours ago, catjones said:

 

My concern with your statements is that they are logical extrapolations of today's world.  As a former boss of mine (VP Sales/Marketing) would say around annual planning time, "Our forecasts always seem to be going up.  Which of our competitors is going to give up share and roll over?" and then he would force his marketing managers to delineate exactly where our forecasted market share would be coming from.

Bad comparison, BMW sales in US dropped hugely since the Model 3.

 

Quote

"Tesla sold more Model 3s in the US in 2019 than BMW sold sedans from its 2, 3, 4, 5, 7 and 8 Series combined"

"BMW appears to be 'most vulnerable' to Tesla according to research conducted by Bloomberg"

 

13 hours ago, catjones said:

Elon is entering traditional markets with new or improved technology.  Since all tech can be copied (legal or illegal) he must stay ahead of the wolves who have a lot at stake.  They've analyzed Tesla too.

That´s the thing. The differentiation about Tesla is NOT technology! It is process (it´s run like an agile SW company) and vertical integration!

This is why it is impossible for a traditional auto maker to copy Tesla without firing the whole chain of command.

[catjones 1,702]

7 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

BMW sales in US dropped hugely since the Model 3.

 

But was there a direct causation?  Model 3 can be introduced and sales at BMW can drop, but without interviews do you know that Model 3 buyers are former BMW buyers and that those who are are in sufficient numbers to drop BMW sales?  If you do a search of the worst selling cars in 2020, BMW doesn't even show up.

[arsenal21 401]

Volkswagen revenue is 250 billion, so according to the "multiply by 5" metric, it should be worth 1.25 trillion.

 

However, Volkswagen's market cap is ... wait for it ... 80 billion. So about one third of revenue.

 

Google has a high multiple because it has high profit margins, e.g. 30%.

 

The auto industry has much lower margins.

 

 

[MikeMelga 7,325]

2 hours ago, catjones said:

 

But was there a direct causation?  Model 3 can be introduced and sales at BMW can drop, but without interviews do you know that Model 3 buyers are former BMW buyers and that those who are are in sufficient numbers to drop BMW sales?  If you do a search of the worst selling cars in 2020, BMW doesn't even show up.

Check out Tesla's Reddit page. Full of BMW 3, 5 series, M2, M3 converted to Tesla M3 fans.

It simply does not make sense to buy a BMW 3,5, M2, M3 in America compared to the Tesla. The Tesla is in most cases cheaper to buy, cheaper to run, much faster, with Autopilot.

The Tesla is 2 motor all wheel drive, which is great for winter time and racing. The BMW is not.

 

Even in Germany, the starting cost of the BMW M3 is higher than the Tesla Model 3 performance. The M2 starts at about the same price as the TM3 AWD! It is simply not price competitive and barely performance competitive!

[MikeMelga 7,325]

45 minutes ago, arsenal21 said:

Volkswagen revenue is 250 billion, so according to the "multiply by 5" metric, it should be worth 1.25 trillion.

 

However, Volkswagen's market cap is ... wait for it ... 80 billion. So about one third of revenue.

 

Google has a high multiple because it has high profit margins, e.g. 30%.

 

The auto industry has much lower margins.

Right... now read this and learn why with Tesla you can multiply by 5...

 

Quote

Tesla Model 3 SR+ Reported To Have 39% Gross Margin In China

Fucking 39%! Now you understand??

[catjones 1,702]

56 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

t simply does not make sense to buy a BMW 3,5, M2, M3 in America compared to the Tesla.

 

If you live in a city and your city garage does not have a charging station.  If you plan on travelling a long distance, find a charging station and wait for the recharge, every 373 miles.  Don't drive in Arizona in the summer (17% loss with a/c) or virtually anywhere in winter (41% loss with heater) then the tesla (or any EV) can make sense to that segment, otherwise it does "make sense to buy a BMW 3,5, M2, M3 in America compared to the Tesla."   In the first quarter, tesla sold more cars in California than any other make.

 

Tesla sold 367,500 cars in 2019

In 2019, BMW achieved record sales of 2,168,516 (senseless) cars

 

Portugal is the size of Indiana.

[BradinBayern 1,647]

21 minutes ago, catjones said:

 

If you live in a city and your city garage does not have a charging station.  If you plan on travelling a long distance, find a charging station and wait for the recharge, every 373 miles.  Don't drive in Arizona in the summer (17% loss with a/c) or virtually anywhere in winter (41% loss with heater) then the tesla (or any EV) can make sense to that segment, otherwise it does "make sense to buy a BMW 3,5, M2, M3 in America compared to the Tesla."   In the first quarter, tesla sold more cars in California than any other make.

 

Tesla sold 367,500 cars in 2019

In 2019, BMW achieved record sales of 2,168,516 (senseless) cars

 

Portugal is the size of Indiana.

Yeah, and if you haul pigs to market then you should also not buy a Tesla, but for NORMAL people...  Who drives 373 miles DAILY?

[MikeMelga 7,325]

1 hour ago, catjones said:

If you live in a city and your city garage does not have a charging station.

If you can afford an BMW M3, your garage will have a charging station.

 

1 hour ago, catjones said:

  If you plan on travelling a long distance, find a charging station and wait for the recharge, every 373 miles. 

So you don´t stop for lunch and stretching legs?

 

1 hour ago, catjones said:

Don't drive in Arizona in the summer (17% loss with a/c) or virtually anywhere in winter (41% loss with heater) then the tesla (or any EV) can make sense to that segment, otherwise it does "make sense to buy a BMW 3,5, M2, M3 in America compared to the Tesla."   In the first quarter, tesla sold more cars in California than any other make.

ICE cars also suffer in cold and heat. Your argument?

 

1 hour ago, catjones said:

 

Tesla sold 367,500 cars in 2019

In 2019, BMW achieved record sales of 2,168,516 (senseless) cars

If there is a German automaker that will go bankrupt in the next 5-7 years, it will be BMW. At the current growth rate, Tesla will pass BMW in number of sales in 2 years. You are looking at one frame of time and you are ignoring the momentum.

 

1 hour ago, catjones said:

Portugal is the size of Indiana.

It´s bigger than Bavaria. What is your point?

[catjones 1,702]

1 hour ago, BradinBayern said:

Yeah, and if you haul pigs to market then you should also not buy a Tesla, but for NORMAL people...  Who drives 373 miles DAILY?

You again?  Still not reading and comprehending my posts.

[BradinBayern 1,647]

6 minutes ago, catjones said:

You again?  Still not reading and comprehending my posts.

I never left.  Have you been in a coma somewhere?  For most people, you don't need to go 373 miles a day.  If you want to travel long distances (for example for vacation), you use your other car. 

[catjones 1,702]

6 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

If you can afford an BMW M3, your garage will have a charging station

I can. It doesn't.  There are 9 supercharging stations in Chicago.  It's going to be a while.

7 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

ICE cars also suffer in cold and heat. Your argument?

You're just being obstinate.

8 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

At the current growth rate, Tesla will pass BMW in number of sales in 2 years. You are looking at one frame of time and you are ignoring the momentum.

 

Using that logic, at the current covid growth rate two months ago, by now. we'd all be dead.  You are ignoring competition and many, many other factors.

10 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

t´s bigger than Bavaria. What is your point?

Myopia.

[catjones 1,702]

1 hour ago, BradinBayern said:

If you want to travel long distances (for example for vacation), you use your other car. 

 

Did you think this up alone or did someone help you?

[BradinBayern 1,647]

On 15.6.2020, 23:08:05, catjones said:

 

Did you think this up alone or did someone help you?

No it is common sense.  Heard of that?  The M3 is a shit car for family vacations by the way.

[BradinBayern 1,647]

The ID3 pricing is out.  https://www.mobiflip.de/shortnews/vw-id-3-1st-volkswagen-preise/

Too bad, I thought it would be cheaper.  Why should I buy an ID3 instead of a Tesla 3?  Especially when a bunch of features don't even work (auto parking, over the air updates)  Good news for Tesla, I guess.