Tesla Gigafactories, News and Conversation

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2 hours ago, fraufruit said:

Have you already ordered?

Earnings call this week, but nobody expects the announcement yet. I think they were planning it for early 2023, but rigth now there is no factory ready to produce it and they have insane demand for Model 3/Y/S, so no rush.

I would expect the Model 2 to require a new factory or serious expansion of Shangai and Berlin, for which there are no concrete plans yet.

What I expect:

  • Shorter than Model 3. Hatchback form, probably having the same interior volume of the Model 3
  • FSD Hardware 4. Autopilot might not come for free.
  • A version for city users with 400-450km for 25.000€. Single motor, less premium stuff
  • A premium version with 550-650km for 32.000€. Probably still with single motor

I'm going to order 2 upfront.

 

The Model 3 will probably get new features to distinguish itself, most likely:

  • active suspension
  • AC seats
  • a performance version with higher acceleration
  • a long range version with 700km
  • discontinued SR+ (standard range)
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Re. Model 2: One thing to consider when trying to estimate the required factory capacity is that North Americans barely buy any hatchbacks. I've read some analysts say it would mainly be for China and Europe.

 

Re. EV delivery dates: as of this year the wait times (except Tesla) are already approaching 10-15 months in Germany.

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48 minutes ago, circuits said:

Re. Model 2: One thing to consider when trying to estimate the required factory capacity is that North Americans barely buy any hatchbacks. I've read some analysts say it would mainly be for China and Europe.

That's why I said Berlin and Shangai.

 

Quote

 

Re. EV delivery dates: as of this year the wait times (except Tesla) are already approaching 10-15 months in Germany.

Of course, traditional auto makers don't want to make many EVs, just enough for emission compliances and keeping shareholders happy. They are a low margin business.

They also don't want to piss off unions, because a lot of workers have to go.

 

Exception is Tesla, Chinese autos and Porsche.

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2 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Of course, traditional auto makers don't want to make many EVs, just enough for emission compliances and keeping shareholders happy.

 

GM will spend 7 billion on new EV/battery plants in Michigan

 

here

 

Also

 

Quote

 

Ford is betting big on its domestic electric vehicle production plans. The automaker is about to sink $850 million into its assembly plant in Flat Rock, Michigan, to turn it into the second of its North American battery-electric vehicle factories, the company announced Wednesday.

Ford's other electric vehicle factory is in Cuautitlán, Mexico, and will produce an electric SUV destined for market in 2020. The Flat Rock plant will build the cars based on Ford's next-generation EV architecture.

 

 

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@fraufruit, although it seems like a lot, it's not. GM itself will only invest $2B on that factory. VW, in comparison, will invest 80-100B in the same time frame.

GM expects 1 million EVs per year by the end of 2025. That's about 1/7th of the total from 2019. Not good enough.

Tesla will be making over 4 million per year by then. Perhaps 5M. Tesla ended 2021 with an annualized production capacity of 1.3M. which is clearly above what GM expects 4 years later.

 

This is not a serious effort. A serious effort would be to have at least 50% of production shift to EVs. Instead, they are promising at best 15%.

 

By the way, GM sold 26(!!!) EVs last quarter...no, it's not a typo, 26!

https://www.techtimes.com/articles/270138/20220105/gm-sold-26-evs-q4-2021-compared-tesla-s-300k.htm#:~:text=General%20Motors%20sold%20only%2026,its%20EVs%20in%20Q4%20alone.

 

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I maintain that traditional auto makers do want to make many EV's and not only for emissions and shareholders.

 

They are just lagging way behind the true innovators and probably won't catch up. 

 

The demand is becoming larger and larger. 

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Tesla Q4 & 2021 earnings out! Here is a summary.

  • $17.7B revenue in Q4! On a annualized rate, that places Tesla at the 11th automaker in the world and most likely will end up 2022 at #8 or #9.
  • 65% growth on revenue YoY
  • $5B gross profit while spending $6.5B building Texas and Berlin! That's just insane!
  • 30% gross margin!
  • Factories are not running at full capacity due to shortage of components, but still growth on Q4 was impressive
  • Berlin will start with old battery tech to reduce risk. Texas starts with new battery tech
  • Energy division still not growing much, due to lack of batteries
  • 50% growth expected for 2022. That would put it at 1.4M cars, but they are probably sandbagging it
  • 11th consecutive profitable quarter.
  • P/E ratio dropped 83% to 186. This means within 1-2 years it probably matches the P/E of FAANG companies, dissipating any question about over valuation. FAANG P/E average is around 40.
  • 60.000 beta testers on FSD!

 

Webcast at 11:30CET:

https://www.youtube.com/embed/EMA6myXpfqI

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2 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

When will Elon open a chip factory? :D

He already mentioned it but I know a few things about those factories and it's not as easy as it sounds. They are incredibly expensive, but most importantly, you can't build the knowledge overnight. So if they go that way, either they need to "order" a factory or they need to buy a big player.

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Webcast highlights:

  • New factory location to be revealed during 2022. My prediction: Europe. Spain (Barcelona), Czech republic are my top contenders. EDIT: Further comments from Elon put another German factory out of question. I got the feeling from the last comment it could be another in China, perhaps Shenzhen. His words were "doesn't make sense to have a factory producing thousands of km away from customers". That invalidates Germany, Czech republic and perhaps Europe as a whole.
  • FSD achieved "this year" (again). Revenue expectations are "nuts". FSD could become the highest revenue source for Tesla. If true, then I would expect their stock to rise 10-20x until 2030. My current prediction is 3-6x. EDIT: More comments seem to indicate transition to Robotaxi is expected before 2024.
  • 2022 objective is to scale output. I think he means the new factory ramp-ups. No new vehicles in 2022. Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster only in 2023
  • R&D focus is the Robot... wow... they are really going for it... I wonder if it's Elon making Tesla pay for Mars Robots... temporary name is "Optimus". First use will be on Tesla factories
  • 50% vehicle growth target is just with Fremont with Shangai. So they admit sandbagging the numbers. Instead of 1.4M, this will be most likely 1.6-1.8M
  • Not working on the $25.000 car. Too many projects. Enigmatic answer. Seems to imply it's not needed, as robotaxis will come earlier.
  • Expansion of Tesla insurance, with realtime information given to driver. Safer drivers, lower insurance, with realtime feedback. I think they will use the current FSD beta "score". European market by EOY.

 

Overall the most impressive thing is that reading between the lines they are really expecting a very rapid change to robotaxis. Perhaps even in 2023.

Elon was very careful on his words, but if true, this means a transport revolution is about to happen faster than expected. And Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world sooner than expected. Not only that, many years ahead of competition, so 2030 revenue could really be mind blowing!

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Excellent result from Ioniq 5 on the Moose test (80km/h). But they advise to keep regeneration to highest level, otherwise not so good. Don't be tempted to turn it off as some people do!

 

On the other hand, Skoda Enyaq performed like shit (67km/h). Its really, really BAD. 

The Enyaq shares a lot with the ID4 and both performed really bad. Not good VW. Seems the fault is at the ESC. Maybe a SW update?

 

As a comparison, Tesla Model Y and 3 made it at 83km/h. The difference between both is that the Model 3 still looked safe at 88km/h.

On a personal note, I've had to do similar manouver 2 years ago at 130km/h when a bus drove into my lane. The control was amazing, I never lost control of the car. I'm pretty sure that with my Mercedes I would have crashed.

Basically I had to swing to the left lane to avoid the bus, break, and swing back to avoid faster cars coming from behind. Scary.

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Oof, that Enyaq's suspension setup needs work. As the commenter wondered, I bet it also had sub-par tires for it to be performing much worse on subsequent runs.

 

Although the Enyaq/ID.4 are on the same MEB platform as the ID.3/Born, I appreciate what the SEAT team in BCN did with their modifications to the ID.3 to make the Cupra Born: 15mm lower to the ground, tighter suspension, and more precise steering. And to deal with the large battery weight, I opted for the adaptive suspension with which I've had great experiences driving a 2018 Golf R. During my Born test drive I tried whipping it around some corners and it felt very, very stable with almost no body roll or fishtailing.

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How much are Tesla Model 3s in Germany? In the UK they're £50,000-£60,000. I have a friend in San Diego and his cost around $40,000. I also have a British friend in Hainan, China and he has ordered one from the Shanghai factory for the equivalent of £23,000

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They charge what they know people will pay. In the UK people will pay more so they will charge more. By the way most cars in the UK are either a company car or done on a PCP and are sold on a monthly cost so they then seem affordable.

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Why Tesla stock is sliding down so much, even after good numbers? I know people were expecting a 25k car and in general tech stocks are falling, but this is too much.  Less than a month ago,  it was more than 1000€

May be it was better to sell everything and buy now again.  

What is the catalyst behind this?

 

 

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There is a small effect caused by whole market being down.

 

But mostly is a bear thesis that "Tesla has no product roadmap".

Consumers are disappointed that there is no Cybertruck nor Model 2 this year.

Long term investors liked the guidance because 2022 is about ramping production, not ramping new products.

 

This will go away very fast, it's a "buy" opportunity. They are very profitable and the conference call just showed they will be much more in 2022.

 

There are 4 reasons why there are no new products in 2022:

  • chip shortage means new products would be a headache to ramp up
  • there is no demand problem
  • Profitability of new models would not be good, especially with CT
  • in the case of Model 2, it's even weirder, they seem to point out they are no longer interested in it, as robotaxis will make a cheaper car unnecessary. Basically "let the peasants use Robotaxi".

The only long term risk is China doing some geopolitical shit in the next few years.

 

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Sorry, it appears that I was looking at used models, rather than new. However, the price in pounds for new models is exactly the same as Euros, i.e £42,990 is shown as €42.990

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1 hour ago, gordonthemoron said:

Sorry, it appears that I was looking at used models, rather than new. However, the price in pounds for new models is exactly the same as Euros, i.e £42,990 is shown as €42.990

In Germany you get 6000€ extra Umweltbonus, therefore 38k. The sticker price includes 3000€ Umweltbonus from the manufacturer.

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