Google suspends Huawei's Android license

49 posts in this topic

25 minutes ago, jeremytwo said:

 

The Chinese have been stealing trade secrets from the West for decades. The winner of this conflict will be the one who takes most care of security, as the wholesale spying and data theft on everyone, from the US Deep State to the Chinese, has made IT a joke.

Yes indeed, and  It is not just trade secrets and IT! The Chinese in particular are guilty of stealing, copying and or ripping off copyrighted and patented products.

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4 hours ago, Krieg said:

If things escalate, China rules the rare earth market.  Yes, other countries can re-organize the supply chain and source the materials from somewhere else, but it is not an easy task and can't probably be optimized to the level China has it now.   So we would have a 1 or 2 years bump and the era of mega-cheap electronics might come to an end. 

 

The rare earth metal supply worries seem overdone.  

 

https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1130798704053690368

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16 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

The rare earth metal supply worries seem overdone.  

 

https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1130798704053690368

 

Good try, read again.   I am not talking about who has the reserves, but the supply chain.  I even mentioned that they will have to re-organize the supply chain creating a bump for a while.  But prices won't be the same.

 

It is like: 

 

- Apple will suffer if they can't make their products in China, eventually they will produce them somewhere else but there will be a bump and the prices might increase.

- You can make Apple products anywhere else in the planet.

- Yes, but ... it will be traumatic to move and the price ...

 

 

China moves things around 2x and 3x faster than any other country.   They have been for years perfecting the logistics of manufacturing in a diverse number of areas.   I actually think it was a mistake to produce so many things in China and concentrate most of the planet's production over there, but hey, people wanted cheap stuff.

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27 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

Good try, read again.   I am not talking about who has the reserves, but the supply chain.  I even mentioned that they will have to re-organize the supply chain creating a bump for a while.  But prices won't be the same.

 

It is like: 

 

- Apple will suffer if they can't make their products in China, eventually they will produce them somewhere else but there will be a bump and the prices might increase.

- You can make Apple products anywhere else in the planet.

- Yes, but ... it will be traumatic to move and the price ...

 

 

China moves things around 2x and 3x faster than any other country.   They have been for years perfecting the logistics of manufacturing in a diverse number of areas.   I actually think it was a mistake to produce so many things in China and concentrate most of the planet's production over there, but hey, people wanted cheap stuff.

 

I agree with your points, but we differ in the following:

 

1.  IMHO this was inevitable and it was telegraphed to major producers.    Tim Cook has eaten dinner with Trump multiple times and this certainly came up prior to major announcments. 

 

2.  The rare earths can be sourced from Australia and possibly other places.   The annual usage is not huge.   It will be interesting to see if anyone has been stockpiling prior to the trade tensions.   My guess is that they have. 

 

3.   If it was a mistake to produce so many things in China, it might be easier to re-position production facilities now rather than 5, 10, 20 or 50 years from now.   

 

One other huge factor:    if this gets really rough, the US basically controls the high seas and protects shipping for every country including EU countries and China.    The US can stop the flow of goods pretty quickly, e.g. oil.     Hope it doesn't come to that.  

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3 minutes ago, balticus said:

2.  The rare earths can be sourced from Australia and possibly other places. 

 

Because all earth rares are found all of them in the same place?  Is it like a group of cool guys that like to hang out together all the time?

 

And then, because they are cool guys, they appreciate diversity, so not all earth rares are the same even if they are the "same".

 

And again, the problem is not the source, it is the supply change and its logistics.   

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China produces around 80% of rare earth metals.    The other producers plus stock piles might be able to pick up the slack.   Supply chains can be changed even if it is not easy.   Reconfiguring global supply chains was baked in already and for a lot more than just rare earth metals.   It is the whole point of the tensions.  

 

Do you think that nobody saw this coming?    It is probably not a showstopper.  

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I read some article a few months ago, it was in a magazine which I threw away so I can't recall every detail, and it said that the issue is not just that China owns and controls a lot of the rare earth sites but the control the supply chain.

 

So even if Brazil, Australia etc. have the materials the only places which can process them and turn them into useful materials and in or owned by China.  There was an example of some mine in the US which started mining again after a gap of 10+ years due to the price jumping up meaning the mine could now be profitable again.  But they can't process the materials and they are sent to China for processing.  (And then a Chinese company bought a large stake in the mining company anyway!)

 

Maybe this is what you mean @Krieg ?

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Krieg is correct about the supply chains.    IMHO, China is not going to strike a decisive blow in the overall trade war due to its current control of rare earths and rare earth processing. 

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Everyone here is missing a very important factor in this and this is not Google's doing - by any measure. 

China's National Intelligence Law from 2017 mandates that every citizen and business, regardless of where they live, have a duty to spy on behalf of the government.  This has been a long standing concern with Huawei and several governments, not only the USA.  The concern with a mobile provider is the idea of backdoors in the phone that could allow the company to monitor conversations, record them and provide them back to the Chinese Government.  I'd say is an honest concern.

Due to this, the American Government banned American companies doing business with numerous Chinese businesses to include Huawei.  This is also the basis for the 5G issue in the US.  And none of this is new.  Spying is a real concern for many and the concern of monitoring phone conversations is raised in many countries throughout the world.

Based on Chinese Law, all countries should seriously consider banning Huawei. 

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15 minutes ago, balticus said:

China produces around 80% of rare earth metals.    The other producers plus stock piles might be able to pick up the slack.   Supply chains can be changed even if it is not easy.   Reconfiguring global supply chains was baked in already and for a lot more than just rare earth metals.   It is the whole point of the tensions.  

 

Do you think that nobody saw this coming?    It is probably not a showstopper.  

 

Instead of learning from Twitter check this article:

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092134491830435X

 

There you will find some good info about China's control of the rare earths supply and understand the problems with starting again without them, among others, China has lax environmental laws, they have perfected the mining process and have under control the dangers of dealing with the REE products, and so on.  China even processes REEs sourced by the USA, they send them from USA to the Chinese because they are the ones who can do it better.

 

Again, like third or fourth time, yes, the western world can build a new REE supply chain, but .. there will be a bump and the prices won't be the same.

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12 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

Instead of learning from Twitter check this article:

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S092134491830435X

 

There you will find some good info about China's control of the rare earths supply and understand the problems with starting again without them, among others, China has lax environmental laws, they have perfected the mining process and have under control the dangers of dealing with the REE products, and so on.  China even processes REEs sourced by the USA, they send them from USA to the Chinese because they are the ones who can do it better.

 

Again, like third or fourth time, yes, the western world can build a new REE supply chain, but .. there will be a bump and the prices won't be the same.

 

Here is some perspective.    Nice big, white candle yesterday but the price of REMX has been much higher.   Pre-market it is up 4%+, but it is not even at the 2019 high yet. 

 

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-REMX/

 

Follow the money. ;) 

 

There will be a bump in a lot of things.    Reconfiguration of supply chains is kind of the whole point.

 

I am not worried yet.  

 

 

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Must admit

All we are talking about is google now being dis allowed from one china manufacture.

 

why are talking about world domination and resource manipulation 

 

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1 hour ago, balticus said:

One other huge factor:    if this gets really rough, the US basically controls the high seas and protects shipping for every country including EU countries and China.    The US can stop the flow of goods pretty quickly, e.g. oil.     Hope it doesn't come to that.  

 

Red herring by China. since the US controls world oil supply via Saudi, they control transport of all goods made by China.

 

1 hour ago, balticus said:

Reconfiguring global supply chains was baked in already and for a lot more than just rare earth metals.   It is the whole point of the tensions.  

 

Do you think that nobody saw this coming?    It is probably not a showstopper.  

Trump visited every country but China early on in his presidency. They are all ready to take up the slack - India, Philippines, Vietnam.

 

1 hour ago, BayrischDude said:

Based on Chinese Law, all countries should seriously consider banning Huawei. 

 

The 5G which was to be owned by China would have allowed them to surveil freely everywhere. This is coming to an end.

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1 minute ago, yesterday said:

Must admit

All we are talking about is google now being dis allowed from one china manufacture.

 

why are talking about world domination and resource manipulation 

 

China's plan is to dominate the world by 2050.

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2 hours ago, Krieg said:

- Apple will suffer if they can't make their products in China, eventually they will produce them somewhere else but there will be a bump and the prices might increase.

- You can make Apple products anywhere else in the planet.

- Yes, but ... it will be traumatic to move and the price ...

Apple already does a lot of production in Vietnam, China is becoming too expensive.

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As always, a listen to Steve P sets things straight. China will lose in this asymmetrical war. They fail to understand that the strategy of one of their own geniuses Sun Tzu, (The Art of War) is being deployed against them.

 

 

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20 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-48363772

 

UK-based chip designer ARM has told staff it must suspend business with Huawei, according to internal documents obtained by the BBC.

 

This just adds another layer to the original problem, critical software and now hardware can't be in the hands of a single country, alternatives are needed.    I guess if things do not de-escalate soon this is going to be a massive wake up call in the world of technology.

 

Huawei will be really hurt if they lose the access to ARM processors.  I guess the only alternative they will have is to massively invest in free alternatives like RISC-V or MIPS, which are Open Source.

 

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