Future of Germany

25 posts in this topic

1 hour ago, balticus said:

AFAIK, Cobalt will basically be supplied by the Democratic Republic of Congo, i.e. mines in eastern Congo.    There will be resource wars between China, the US, Russia (already has Wagner people there), and probably France.   Unless Germany wants to engage Erik Prince  to help procure supply, it might be helpful to either develop military capabilities or get those NATO verbal commitments paid up.   Based on the soft support for additional spending, I doubt that the US will guarantee supplies of Cobalt, Lithium and rare earth metals the way it has maintained the flow of oil.  

 

In World War II we faced a similar problem.  Axis powers controlled almost the entire supply of natural rubber needed for the increasing demand for vehicle tires.  Also an important material for War fighting. So we switched to synthetic rubber. 

 

The same thing will happen with other sorts of materials such as Cobalt.   https://www.wired.com/story/alternatives-to-cobalt-the-blood-diamond-of-batteries/  or lithium.   Recycling and finding other sources will be the solution for the near future.  

  

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, BradinBayern said:

Yes, but like Japan, their workers will start demanding higher wages and prices will rise.  Then manufacturing will move to the next cheaper country (Vietnam?  Pakistan?)  That is already happening for textiles.

 

When they develop more towards using their own technology rather than relying on it from an external source, their appeal will not be cheap labor any more.     The design and engineering can mostly be done in China and manufactured wherever the Chinese decide.   

 

Take Huawei and 5G as examples.   Not textiles or cheap toys.    Look at nuclear energy as a second example. 

 

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, balticus said:

AFAIK, Cobalt will basically be supplied by the Democratic Republic of Congo, i.e. mines in eastern Congo.    There will be resource wars between China, the US, Russia (already has Wagner people there), and probably France.   Unless Germany wants to engage Erik Prince  to help procure supply, it might be helpful to either develop military capabilities or get those NATO verbal commitments paid up.   Based on the soft support for additional spending, I doubt that the US will guarantee supplies of Cobalt, Lithium and rare earth metals the way it has maintained the flow of oil.  

Newer battery technologies will close to zero cobalt. Tesla is claiming that the next gen will use zero. The current gen uses 4Kg, which is not much, and already much less than the competition.

 

5 hours ago, balticus said:

7.   Germany has few natural resources necessary to power a manufacturing economy outside of brown coal, water, and arable land.   With the growth of China and others,   Germany will need to rely on some of its partners with sufficient firepower, e.g. the US, UK, and France for procuring inputs.

Europe needs to be energy independent, especially coal independent. Not only for the economy, but also as a geostratetic policy.

This can only come from massive investment in battery storage, plus renewables, plus nuclear.

2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, BradinBayern said:

Yes, but like Japan, their workers will start demanding higher wages and prices will rise.  Then manufacturing will move to the next cheaper country (Vietnam?  Pakistan?)  That is already happening for textiles.

The move from Korea, Japan and China(!) to Vietnam started in large scale more than 5 years ago.

We have some customers with factories there. There are a lot of infrastructure problems, but overall it pays off. As an example, we had serious issues in Vietnam with burning equipment due to extremely bad electric supply problems.

 

Malaysia is also a trendy destination, with better infrastructure, but higher wages.

0

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 18.4.2019, 11:12:24, balticus said:

 

When they develop more towards using their own technology rather than relying on it from an external source, their appeal will not be cheap labor any more.     The design and engineering can mostly be done in China and manufactured wherever the Chinese decide.   

 

Take Huawei and 5G as examples.   Not textiles or cheap toys.    Look at nuclear energy as a second example. 

 

Yes, same as Japan.  Hondas and Toyotas did not go away but they became more expensive mostly due to higher labor costs. The original Honda Civic was a cheap little econobox.

1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now