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Risk Aversion

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I am a fairly educated person..a bit old school and probably educated in the wrong things but I agree with Spider!:P

Swimmer: what are you talking about?:lol:

 

( Swimmer: give the crowd some North Yorkshire!! )

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34 minutes ago, swimmer said:

There is a lot of goalpost moving here.  Risk is only ever subjective. Soundcloud was never profitable and is now owned by venture capitalists.  Is there risk there?   Those venture capitalists noted that the founders wanted the successful profligate business life despite not being successful.   Some people may see founding a perpetual lossmaker that may be a route to bankruptcy or bank bailout as a "risk".   Others more as a scenester herdfollower means to the vogue life option, that they can simply bail out of when the cash is turned off after an enjoyable few years

 

Round my way?  The first nondestructive landing on a comet nucleus (2016, Churyumov-Garasimenko, aka Philae / Rosetta).   Mercury Planet Orbiter and Magnetospheric Orbiter (2018, aka BepiColombo).   The Copernicus Sentinel programme covering a range of innovation, including most recently high precision measurements of global sealevel.   Just a small set from within 2km of where I live.  There's plenty more.   Collosal sums and a lot of time and national pride and the rest invested in that, better make sure it happens.

 

Then there's three chemical elements added to the periodic table in recent times (Hassium, Darmstadtium, Copernicium) from innovation in heavy ion technology that has a wide range of modern applications including increasing use in advanced medical techology.   And heaps more.    There's patents going in for products that will sell all over the world all the time:  pharma, chemicals, beautycare, coatings, coverings, gadgets and appliances and lots more.

 

And yet foreigners still sit at home and lecture on how Germany is not innovative and won't take risk - apparently because their neighbours have better things to do than run their own car repair garage that'd probably earn a pittance -  when all this amazing fabulous stuff is going on around them :).   They are missing out on a wide and fascinating world, stuffed with entrepeneurship and innovation.

 

Translation for @SpiderPig and @john g.: No risk, no fun. 

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3 minutes ago, john g. said:

:PDear Cammiede! North Yorkshire, please!!!

 

the only good things that came out Yorkshire are the A59 and M62 West.


I’m ignoring the A1, nowt worth seeing South or North.

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:DI bet you´re from the Lancashire part of Mars, Cammiede!!!!

I " were " born in Saltburn! My Auntie Alywn still has the accent. She  " were " born there as well!! My Dad was a Cockney---so I´m a bit messed up. My Greek is a sort of mixture of Yorkshire, East London and..erm..ignorance!!!

Did I forget my Glaswegian grandfather and Welsh grandmother? 

(my first sex attempt was with a Glaswegian lass). Mind you, a graveyard isn´t the best place...NOT the best place for risk aversion, I must admit.:P

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Weltweiter Vergleich  Deutschland ist am innovativsten

Kein anderes Land der Welt ist in Sachen Innovation so gut wie Deutschland. Das bescheinigt das Weltwirtschaftsforum der Bundesrepublik. Die deutschen Unternehmer seien risikofreudig und kreativ.

Deutschland ist bei der Innovationsfähigkeit nach einer neuen Analyse des Weltwirtschaftsforums (WEF) weltweit nicht zu toppen. Die Bundesrepublik liegt auf Platz eins vor den USA, wie die Stiftung in ihrem Globalen Wettbewerbsbericht 2018 ausführt. Ausschlaggebend waren unter anderem die Zahl der angemeldeten Patente sowie wissenschaftliche Veröffentlichungen und die Zufriedenheit der Kunden mit deutschen Produkten - das feuere die Unternehmen immer wieder zu Verbesserungen und Erneuerungen an.

 

Wel well well :P

 

 

 

 

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Another thing would be that modern German entrepeneurs like Vapiano, DM et al very much have built a global presence.    There are many European capitals where you see whole malls and you think:  aha clearly German built.   They just tend not to be the ones many westerners go to.  There's a huge German presence in markets most of us simply never see much of. 

 

They are very much a home-from-home for a lot of us because we know we will find them.    I am about to go to one and I've even been thinking - why bother with a travel bag when I can just nip in DM :D.    I am quite likely to put in an appearance at the well-located and friendly Vapiano as well.   I usually do.    In remote Lithuania, last year,  I was amused that the bus that pulled up in the main square for us was covered with one of my client's branding.  But that multi-billion entity does not operate in, say, USA.  Americans will probably rarely be aware of how vast or innovative it is.

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Two guys taking a leak off a railway bridge over a river at night.

One says, "The water sure is cold."

The other says, "And deep too".

 

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6 hours ago, lisa13 said:

at least I know what the mieterverein is for.

How can the Berlin Tenants‘ Association help you?

We have lawyers, assessors, energy consultants and other staff to support you in any disputes with your landlords.

 

 

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12 hours ago, swimmer said:

Round my way?  The first nondestructive landing on a comet nucleus (2016, Churyumov-Garasimenko, aka Philae / Rosetta).   Mercury Planet Orbiter and Magnetospheric Orbiter (2018, aka BepiColombo).   The Copernicus Sentinel programme covering a range of innovation, including most recently high precision measurements of global sealevel.   Just a small set from within 2km of where I live.  There's plenty more.   Collosal sums and a lot of time and national pride and the rest invested in that, better make sure it happens.

 

Then there's three chemical elements added to the periodic table in recent times (Hassium, Darmstadtium, Copernicium) from innovation in heavy ion technology that has a wide range of modern applications including increasing use in advanced medical techology.   And heaps more.    There's patents going in for products that will sell all over the world all the time:  pharma, chemicals, beautycare, coatings, coverings, gadgets and appliances and lots more.

 

And yet foreigners still sit at home and lecture on how Germany is not innovative and won't take risk - apparently because their neighbours have better things to do than run their own car repair garage that'd probably earn a pittance -  when all this amazing fabulous stuff is going on around them :).   They are missing out on a wide and fascinating world, stuffed with entrepeneurship and innovation.

 

Germany is very strong in developing new intellectual property, but if the initiatives are funded via the government or simply reflective of improvements in small increments, the benefits are positive, but they don't necessarily reflect big risks.  

 

It would be interesting to see what sort of encouragement or guarantees were suggested to companies like Telekom, Douglass, Boss, Vodafone, Accor, Saturn, Rossman, DM, Media Markt, Carrefour, Zara, Starbucks, etc when talking about expansion eastward.    Unfortunately, a mall in NRW may not look much different than one in Poland except that the few local brands are different.   

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I don't have much of a head for business but I'm curious - I thought that Germany's globally successful SMEs were what kept the country doing so well during the global financial crisis? Is that just a myth or am I missing the point of the thread? :D

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I don't need to 'change the world', 'distrupt industry X' (I prefer to build something than to disrupt) or other American bullshit.

I prefer the German approach...lower salaries, no shiny bullshit, no overcommittment (unlike people like Elon Musk who don't care if his employees have to work 16 hours a day for weeks to fullfil his egocentric unrealistic deadlines. The world is not gonna end if your cars full of bugs or exploding rockets get delivered a few months later)...and you have a life after 6 p.m.

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57 minutes ago, anne k said:

I don't have much of a head for business but I'm curious - I thought that Germany's globally successful SMEs were what kept the country doing so well during the global financial crisis? Is that just a myth or am I missing the point of the thread? :D

 

You are absolutely correct, but the fact is that they are all long established family concerns. Germans actually make stuff. However all the destructively creative innovation is west of the Pond. The two mentalities are radically different. Which is the best, a low risk "dull" plod or a high octane, high burnout system is an endless debate. My thinking is the Us system is cool when you are young, but when you have a family, the German system is better.

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12 hours ago, john g. said:

North Yorkshire, please!!!

Here's the Lincolnshire Yellow-belly earthy take on Swimmer's somewhat celestial musings:

 

"Courses for horses."

 

Have to say his/her perspective is focussed on the exceptional. These things are not lurking on every street corner. And I wonder if they are multi-national operations? Seek and thou shallt find. But it's hardly the norm.

 

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1 hour ago, anne k said:

I don't have much of a head for business but I'm curious - I thought that Germany's globally successful SMEs were what kept the country doing so well during the global financial crisis? Is that just a myth or am I missing the point of the thread? :D

 

Germany was hit worse in Q4 2008 and Q1 2009 than most countries because the country relied (and continues to rely) on exports.    Demand fell off a cliff until early March, 2009.  

 

19 minutes ago, UpToWick said:

I don't need to 'change the world', 'distrupt industry X' (I prefer to build something than to disrupt) or other American bullshit.

I prefer the German approach...lower salaries, no shiny bullshit, no overcommittment (unlike people like Elon Musk who don't care if his employees have to work 16 hours a day for weeks to fullfil his egocentric unrealistic deadlines. The world is not gonna end if your cars full of bugs or exploding rockets get delivered a few months later)...and you have a life after 6 p.m.

 

It is a question of whether Germans take on more risk than others.   There are pros and cons to other approaches and as there are different cultures, resources, and constraints, it should be no surprise that one singular approach is not optimal for every country. 

 

If you have ever worked at a startup where everyone has equity, people tend to focus their life on their work, i.e. they are doing what they like to do.    The workers at Tesla are there by choice.   

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12 minutes ago, balticus said:

If you have ever worked at a startup where everyone has equity, people tend to focus their life on their work, i.e. they are doing what they like to do.    The workers at Tesla are there by choice.   

 

your take on this is very romantic.  

 

If you have worked in the US you realize that the vast majority of people are working insane hours because a) what UpToWick said about unrealistic scheduling at the expense of workers is true b ) there is a cultural, mental defect that leads americans to equate far too much of their self worth purely with work and c) it's an "at will" employment culture with a very thin safety net.    

 

Most americans (in startups or otherwise) work insane hours simply to avoid losing their jobs and/or bolster their self esteem (oh man I worked 18 hours straight yesterday - YEAH!!!).  Some do actually enjoy what they are doing, but you can accomplish that and still have a life, at least in theory.

 

 

 

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On 12/16/2018, 6:21:28, fraufruit said:

 

I've read that. It is an extremely rare case. We've had zero problems with our renters. Even if we did, it' a very small place so not much to destroy. Wish we had bought more than one in hindsight.

 

The thing is the more properties you have the higher the risk you will end up with one bad tenant.   As a normal person landlord and not a corporation one single bad tenant could be a disaster, damage your finances completely and destroy your health.   I bought my first property when I was 26 years old and now have together with the wife 6 properties in 3 countries.   So far I had one single bad tenant but it was enough to give me stomach cramps just by thinking about it. 

 

On 12/16/2018, 10:45:07, LeonG said:

It may be rare to get bad tenants but like somebody told me once, the odds are low but if it happens to you, it happens a 100%.  I don't think I would want to rent out in Germany unless I had a few apartments to spread the risk.  Back when I was working in manpower, the boss of my agency told me that she knew an older manpower worker who he and his wife had put all their savings in a house with 3 apartments.  They lived in one and rented out two.  It was supposed to be their retirement.  Their luck, neither tenant paid.  One of them, they eventually got evicted a year or so later with costs etc.  The other had a disabled child and could not be evicted.  They eventually lost their house as they couldn't pay the mortgage.

 

That was the mistake.   My rule has been always not to mortgage more than I can chew with my secured income.   Mostly what I did was buying with a mortgage, paying as fast as possible, buying again a new one with a mortgage and renting one out.  All while keeping my normal job that would allow me to pay the mortgage even if the tenant did not pay.  When the snowball was rolling for a while I even managed to buy a couple of properties in cash with no mortgage.

 

17 hours ago, jeremytwo said:

 

Yup Germany is an enterprise graveyard. We've discussed before how the idea of a "startup" in Berlin is a joke. They do build old products well here  - cars - machine tools etc. But anything world changing from the last 10 years? Nope.

 

Couldn't be wronger.   You, like many people, are probably making the mistake of thinking that all startups are IT startups.  And that the startup has to revolutionize the world in order to be successful.

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42 minutes ago, lisa13 said:

 

your take on this is very romantic.  

 

Could be.   How are you today?

 

42 minutes ago, lisa13 said:

 

If you have worked in the US

 

Have worked in the US at a startup and also at established companies.   Have worked in Germany at 2 startups.  

 

42 minutes ago, lisa13 said:

you realize that the vast majority of people are working insane hours because a) what UpToWick said about unrealistic scheduling at the expense of workers is true b ) there is a cultural, mental defect that leads americans to equate far too much of their self worth purely with work and c) it's an "at will" employment culture with a very thin safety net.    

 

Most americans (in startups or otherwise) work insane hours simply to avoid losing their jobs and/or bolster their self esteem (oh man I worked 18 hours straight yesterday - YEAH!!!).  Some do actually enjoy what they are doing, but you can accomplish that and still have a life, at least in theory.

 

This is basically correct.   I have learned that people bragging about their marathon work sessions is referred to as "hustle porn".  

 

But Tesla is a different case and a lot different than working for a regional bank or insurance company or some other such thing.     Even though a lot of executives have left Tesla recently, it is one the most desired places of work for Engineers.    The people walk in the door expecting bleeding edge work, huge career prospects, and long hours.   

 

 

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You, like many people, are probably making the mistake of thinking that all startups are IT startups.  And that the startup has to revolutionize the world in order to be successful.

 

Absolutely.   And of course there's also a limited view of what "IT" is.    A lot of people round me work in startups and SMEs that are developing elements of components for those satellites I mentioned, or in AI.    Just some microscopic element of some other microscopic element, or whatever.    There's a huge number of start-ups and SME's in this sort of work.   A plus of the field is there is quite a lot of funding floating around.  Space cities are rarely poor.    Auto has a similar eco-system of mass SME suppliers.     

 

The most successful SMEs in my family here are in animal medicine, and catering.   Very few of my family here is employed.  I never have been either.  

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