Diesel cars banned in Frankfurt

[MikeMelga 7,325]

5 hours ago, keith2011 said:

 

Quite a surprise that, given that Ford and the other US car makers have a long history of designing and building cars in Europe for the European market on the basis of transport time and cost from the USA  and that their US products are unsellable outside of the Americas. Not sure why a switch to EVs would change that or is Ford not planning on making EVs?

Simple, because of what I've been saying for years. The automotive market is shifting to China. BMW already produces most of its EVs in China, then exports to Europe.

And their current factory is dead weight, cannot be easily converted to EV production.

[keith2011 2,678]

40 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Simple, because of what I've been saying for years. The automotive market is shifting to China. BMW already produces most of its EVs in China, then exports to Europe.

And their current factory is dead weight, cannot be easily converted to EV production.

 

Not so sure about that, in the UK at least, the job cuts seem to be in the engineering (ICE I suppose) area rather than production and there is speculation that the current attractive subsidies for companies producing in the USA are also a factor. China on the other hand looks not a good place for a US company at least at the moment with tensions high over Taiwan.

Quote

Ford is cutting back on development staff as it faces an uncertain economic future and prepares for the transition to electric vehicles.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64629072

[keith2011 2,678]

2 hours ago, fraufruit said:

 

Perhaps most will be replaced by robots.

 

Your post had a quote which said it was mine but it is not.

[Chelski 1,481]

1 hour ago, keith2011 said:

 

Your post had a quote which said it was mine but it is not.

 

It's The Quickening.

 

I predicted this would happen due to the absence of mods.

 

I would suggest everyone delete their profile and log-off as a matter of urgency.

 

Flush, or eat, your smartphone.

 

Unplug all cables related to your Internet and seek sanctuary in a cellar, or under a large, resting giant turtle.

 

THIS. IS. NOT. A. DRILL.

 

Good luck all!

 

Hopefully see you on the otherside...

 

 

[yesterday 2,027]

2 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Simple, because of what I've been saying for years. The automotive market is shifting to China. BMW already produces most of its EVs in China, then exports to Europe.

And their current factory is dead weight, cannot be easily converted to EV production.

 

A lot of manufacturing has already moved to China!, in every industrial sector. The people who make the money are getting richer and richer on the back of it, so we have less industrial jobs.

 

A lot of these job cuts are related to the killing off of the small car!, eg Ford Fiesta! Basically Ford have looked at the margin Tesla are making and decided they do not want to be in the low margin, high production market any more. They figure that they are better making a good margin  and less cars ie more expensive cars. Its not Ford other major car manufactures are looking at well.

 

Building less cars means, you employ less people.

 

Problem is that its just more bad news for poorer people, as they will not be as many cheap cars to buy in the future.

 

 

See here  10 Cars That Will Go EXTINCT In 2023 - YouTube

[MikeMelga 7,325]

21 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Problem is that its just more bad news for poorer people, as they will not be as many cheap cars to buy in the future.

 

I disagree on that one. I think cars will become cheaper and cheaper. This is just the transition phase.

The ultra cheap cars will end, as they had very small margins, but in a few years ultra cheap, low maintenance EVs will come.

 

Eventually, transportation-as-a-service will replace car ownership for the middle and lower classes. It's estimated to save a lot of money per year for poor families!

 

 

[MikeMelga 7,325]

1 hour ago, keith2011 said:

 

Not so sure about that, in the UK at least, the job cuts seem to be in the engineering (ICE I suppose) area rather than production and there is speculation that the current attractive subsidies for companies producing in the USA are also a factor. China on the other hand looks not a good place for a US company at least at the moment with tensions high over Taiwan.

When I say China, it doesn't have to be physically in China. I've travelled to Chinese companies in Vietnam, for example. The point is China is controlling the money and the ecosystem.

[yesterday 2,027]

43 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

I disagree on that one. I think cars will become cheaper and cheaper. This is just the transition phase.

The ultra cheap cars will end, as they had very small margins, but in a few years ultra cheap, low maintenance EVs will come.

 

Eventually, transportation-as-a-service will replace car ownership for the middle and lower classes. It's estimated to save a lot of money per year for poor families!

 

 

 

 

Problem is sometimes you say a decent EV ( means  a Tesla, which costs a lot )and other times you talk about ultra cheap cars, my question is which one will it be ?  and do not say both, with out a new battery technology, current batteries are just too expensive.

 

 

Sure we can both pull out our crystal balls, but its all just speculation

[MikeMelga 7,325]

27 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Problem is sometimes you say a decent EV ( means  a Tesla, which costs a lot )and other times you talk about ultra cheap cars, my question is which one will it be ?  and do not say both, with out a new battery technology, current batteries are just too expensive.

Most of your related statements assume a static world. Please understand that battery costs have been dropping 20% annually for the past 20 years!

There is no need for a radical new battery technology, current batteries can be scaled up to be half the price. At half the price, EVs have a cheaper tag price than ICE cars. Not even mentioning TCO!

I think Tesla and BYD can offer a <25k€ car within 2 years, if they want it. A small Tesla with a 35kWh battery would be enough for city drivers, perhaps 350-370km range.

Will they do it so soon? Perhaps not, because there is no competition.

 

[slammer 889]

12 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Most of your related statements assume a static world. Please understand that battery costs have been dropping 20% annually for the past 20 years!

There is no need for a radical new battery technology, current batteries can be scaled up to be half the price. At half the price, EVs have a cheaper tag price than ICE cars. Not even mentioning TCO!

I think Tesla and BYD can offer a <25k€ car within 2 years, if they want it. A small Tesla with a 35kWh battery would be enough for city drivers, perhaps 350-370km range.

Will they do it so soon? Perhaps not, because there is no competition.

 

Give me a call when you see a five grand Tesla, 10 years old, four previous owners and I can expect a good five - six years service out of it. Maybe even longer with parts sourced from the scrapyard.

[jeba 4,364]

8 hours ago, yesterday said:

Problem is that its just more bad news for poorer people, as they will not be as many cheap cars to buy in the future.

 

7 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

The ultra cheap cars will end,

No worries, ultra cheap cars will simply come from elsewhere (China, Indonesia, India  etc.). You can already buy electric cars for less than € 10000: https://www.n-tv.de/auto/Kleinwagen-fuer-kleines-Geld-es-gibt-sie-noch-article23895905.html

 

7 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

ventually, transportation-as-a-service will replace car ownership for the middle and lower classes.

How should that work in rural areas?

 

[yesterday 2,027]

11 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Most of your related statements assume a static world. Please understand that battery costs have been dropping 20% annually for the past 20 years!

 

Not any more, prices are going up now, for EV batteries 

You can also see prices are not dropping any more they are more or less stable

Musk was predicting the $100 per kWh,  back in 2016, he makes a lot of bad jokes

 

Quote

 

There is no need for a radical new battery technology, current batteries can be scaled up to be half the price. At half the price, EVs have a cheaper tag price than ICE cars. 

 

EV are only a bit cheaper because of the subsidies, when they go, you are left with an expensive low range car, that helps the environment a bit

 

Quote

I think Tesla and BYD can offer a <25k€ car within 2 years, if they want it. A small Tesla with a 35kWh battery would be enough for city drivers, perhaps 350-370km range.

Will they do it so soon? Perhaps not, because there is no competition.

 

Yeah, well I think you also believed Musk would have FSD working by now as well, problem is its not, and I told you it would not work as well. This is just a dream

 

5 hours ago, jeba said:

 

No worries, ultra cheap cars will simply come from elsewhere (China, Indonesia, India  etc.). You can already buy electric cars for less than € 10000: https://www.n-tv.de/auto/Kleinwagen-fuer-kleines-Geld-es-gibt-sie-noch-article23895905.html

 

 

Quote

But thats an ICE car, the idea is to get rid of environmentally bad ICE cars, and ICE will be banned by 2035 as well

Are you joking those lined cars, have  a maximum speed of bewteen 45 and 80 Kph, try driving from Munich to Berlin on that and see how long it takes

Quote

 

 

[keith2011 2,678]

12 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

When I say China, it doesn't have to be physically in China. I've travelled to Chinese companies in Vietnam, for example. The point is China is controlling the money and the ecosystem.

That is a very long way from a US company moving to China, which is what you claimed was happening with Ford. In fact the world wide trade issue following covid has highlighted and given a wake up call on how dependant the west has become on China. China is a growing market for just about everything but its protectionism is forcing the US to introduce state incentives to retain manufacturing jobs and the EU may follow (it is under discussion).

[fraufruit 42,471]

14 hours ago, keith2011 said:

 

Your post had a quote which said it was mine but it is not.

 

Sorry about that. I quoted your quote of Slammers quote. 

[keith2011 2,678]

13 hours ago, Chelski said:

Hopefully see you on the otherside...

 

Presumably when Chelsea finally manage to win a game of football.

[toBnruG 1,156]

On 11/02/2023, 13:26:21, slammer said:

Perhaps I am a minority here, but in my humble opinion ICE cars peaked in the late seventies, early eighties, cars then were cheap, no frills affairs that either worked or they didn’t. Anybody who knew the difference between a screwdriver and a socketset could repair it in the driveway <...> and don’t get me started on the tech you need to cram into making an EV move. In the end it’s just a car.

Completely agree about the peak of the ICE cars. But an EV should be much simpler than an ICE. They're hyper-complicated because of the potentially dangerous battery technology (safety considerations) and because people still want them to do all the useless extra things (like checking their blind spot without the driver having to move their head - are people taught not to bother looking over their shoulder any longer?) which wouldn't be necessary if everybody knew how to drive.

Milk floats were doing their rounds (on a single charge) in the 1940s and there wasn't any advanced tech in those! The mass-production of EVs actually pre-dates the mass-production of ICE cars, but even in the 1900s it was easier to get hold of liquid fuel than it was to get hold of electricity (plus some US companies were already heavily invested in pumping oil out of the ground), and so the ICE took off in a big way.

On 11/02/2023, 18:10:40, fraufruit said:

Straight up question, MM. Would you have bought an EV if you had no possiblity to charge at home and/or work? If you were completely dependent on public charging?

 

I know you didn't ask me, but all the same - at the time of buying my first EV I installed, as a precaution, a regular 16A socket in our parking port. In 3 years I've used it twice for charging my car.

My intention was to plug it in whenever I got home and leave it charging overnight. In reality I realized I only need public chargers. I'm still glad it's there, just in case, specially since the public charging network is growing so... fecking... slowly... but anyway, to me owning an EV was never about convenience. If I am traveling less than 10km then I cycle. Not because it's more convenient, but because it's good for me, doesn't pollute, and at the very most takes 20 minutes longer than driving. I shop 3 times per week instead of doing 1 big shop because the supermarket is only 3km from my house.

My town just held a referendum to turn around a decision by the council to turn our high-street into a pedestrian zone. I was extremely sad to discover that the overwhelming majority voted to stop the pedestrian zone, presumably because they would have to drive 1 minute further to get to the other side of town. People don't care about the environment if it impedes on their rights to be downright lazy bastards. Convenience rules, and that is the only reason that people don't get onboard with EVs.

People complain that EVs cost too much. The manufacturers have consciously decided to only make mid-to-high end vehicles. As soon as they have no choice left, they will make affordable cars. And anyway, why the hell is everybody quoting new Tesla prices as a yard-stick for the price of EVs??? Tesla are a premium car manufacturer and people (normal people) rarely buy new cars. Everybody in my family has only ever bought used cars. Supply and demand, people - prices of EVs will drop, get over it!

[Krieg 15,072]

38 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Yeah, well I think you also believed Musk would have FSD working by now as well, problem is its not, and I told you it would not work as well. This is just a dream

 

At some point there will be a class action because you can't sell something and not delivery it for 10 years (Tesla started selling FSD in 2016).   I assume that's why Tesla decided to reduce the price of the enhanced autopilot and make the FSD extremely expensive, so people would rather just pay for the enhanced autopilot option.    

 

I think FSD is a pipedream, it will be in permanent beta, because the moment it is out of beta Tesla will be liable for its accidents.   And there must be a reason why Tesla hides their disengagement statistics, probably because at the moment other companies are already doing better.

 

38 minutes ago, yesterday said:

 

 

Are you joking those lined cars, have  a maximum speed of bewteen 45 and 80 Kph, try driving from Munich to Berlin on that and see how long it takes

 

 

 

Sure, not comparable.  But I think Europe is making a mistake here.   A new "city car" category should be introduced, not everyone needs a car with safety standards for Autobahn at 150 kmh.   At the moment the only way to go around this is the "moped cars", the ones that are restricted to 45 km/h and you can drive without a license, but those really really suck, amazingly there is already an EV option, the Citroen Ami, but it won't have big success because it is super bad, it is a very niche product.

 

8 minutes ago, keith2011 said:

 

Presumably when Chelsea finally manage to win a game of football.

 

Might happen when Elon Musk buys Manchester United.

[keith2011 2,678]

1 hour ago, yesterday said:

Not any more, prices are going up now, for EV batteries 

You can also see prices are not dropping any more they are more or less stable

 

I confirm that it not just for cars, I was looking for an additional battery for my E-bike, late in 2021 a Bosch 500 wH was around €500 (winter price, tended to be slightly higher spring and summer). I was expecting the price to fall in the depths of winter and waited but by early 2022 the price had shot up to €600+. They have  come down somewhat this year but are still €50-60 more than at the end of 2021.

[Keleth 9,321]

5 hours ago, toBnruG said:

And anyway, why the hell is everybody quoting new Tesla prices as a yard-stick for the price of EVs???

Because the person who is always posting here about the excellence etc etc of EVs is always using Tesla as the yardstick and doesn´t consider any other EV a decent EV.

5 hours ago, toBnruG said:

Tesla are a premium car manufacturer and people (normal people) rarely buy new cars. Everybody in my family has only ever bought used cars.

Um that´s 90% of the arguments in this thread that even a used EV is expensive.

 

 

[fraufruit 42,471]

5 hours ago, toBnruG said:

people still want them to do all the useless extra things (like checking their blind spot without the driver having to move their head - are people taught not to bother looking over their shoulder any longer?) which wouldn't be necessary if everybody knew how to drive.

 

It's the old if you never had it, you'll never miss it arguement. I know people who never had a microwave so they don't miss it. I only use mine once or twice a week but would be unhappy if it was taken away although I'm perfectly capable of heating things up on the stove or in the toaster oven and taking hours to thaw out something for dinner.

 

Fact is, the warning systems that indicate when someone is driving in your "blind spot" have greatly reduced accidents.