Bavaria publishes crime statistics for 2017

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The safest federal state in Germany with the toughest police force has once published last year's crime statistics. The refugee crisis is passé, and the number of crimes reduces to the level of 2013. Due to novelization of the sexual crime law in 2016, last year there were quite more sexual crimes registered. For example, rape is now rape even if no violence was applied (was not the case before). That gives 26% increase. 

 

As was the case in the previous year, Bavarian police reports crimes committed by non Germans (foreign nationality or no nationality) and Zuwanderer. The latter crimes are up 4% (27427 total). A Zuwanderer is non German who is registered under following grounds: illegal residence, asylum seeker, tolerated asylum seeker, refugee.

5abb9d6a29c58_Bildschirmfotovom2018-03-2

 

More graphs and tables here:

Crime statistics Bavaria 2017 (60 pages, PDF)

Explanation of the terms used in the report (15 pages, PDF)

Graphs and tables (XLS)

Short summary on BR

 

Previous discussions on TT:

 

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37 minutes ago, zwiebelfisch said:

Do your statistics show that there was a huge wave of "foreigner" crime which has now passed?  I dont get it, why is that?

Any crossing of the border without a visa is technically a crime. That's why the wave of refugees drastically increased the numbers.

 

Now this went back to "normal" visa overstays and refugee arrivals as was pre 2014.

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19 minutes ago, zwiebelfisch said:

Do your statistics show that there was a huge wave of "foreigner" crime which has now passed?  I dont get it, why is that?

 

Probably because all the asylum seekers were committing some kind of crime as soon as they got here (entering the country without permission). 

 

More interesting is "Von den insgesamt 265.883 registrierten Tatverdächtigen ohne ausländerrechtliche Verstöße waren 173.088 Deutsche und 92.795 Nichtdeutsche" - That excludes immigration law and is definitely non-proportional to the population.

 

 

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1 minute ago, msam said:

That excludes immigration law and is definitely non-proportional to the population.

 

Last year however most such crimes were committed inside asylum homes, the victims were asylum seekers as well.

 

I have to read the full report to determine if this was still the case in 2017, but I guess, yes.

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7 minutes ago, msam said:

More interesting is "Von den insgesamt 265.883 registrierten Tatverdächtigen ohne ausländerrechtliche Verstöße waren 173.088 Deutsche und 92.795 Nichtdeutsche" - That excludes immigration law and is definitely non-proportional to the population.

Indeed. That´s about 2 thirds. Strange that the percentage of foreign prison inmates is only 49% (at least that´s what it was the year before IIRC).

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Just now, yourkeau said:

Last year however most such crimes were committed inside asylum homes, the victims were asylum seekers as well.

 

I have to read the full report to determine if this was still the case in 2017, but I guess, yes.

 

Most of the foreigner crimes are not by asylum seekers:

 

"Unter den Nichtdeutschen wurden insgesamt 27.427 tatverdächtige Zuwanderer erfasst, die mindestens ein nicht-ausländerrechtliches Delikt begangen haben"

 

Among those, yes, most were in asylum homes

 

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1 minute ago, jeba said:

Indeed. That´s about 2 thirds. Strange that the percentage of foreign prison inmates is only 49% (at least that´s what it was the year before IIRC).

 

There's a "top 10 list" as well. Romania and Turkey on top then Poland, Syria... I have no idea how that compares to the total population

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39 minutes ago, jeba said:

Indeed. That´s about 2 thirds. Strange that the percentage of foreign prison inmates is only 49% (at least that´s what it was the year before IIRC).

Prison inmates hardly relate to just 1 year crime statistics. One however can explain: Kapitalverbrechen are usually done by locals while petty crimes are 100% foreign domain, so percentage of German nationality of those who get more than 5 years is higher.

 

For example: crimes against life (more than 10 years in prison): 558 in 2017, among that 89 Zuwanderer. So you have this disproportion at the start.

 

Take into account that Bavaria offers to leave the prison sooner if the inmate voluntarily leaves Germany forever. That applies to small crimes, of course. That reduces foreign inmate population in addition.

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17 hours ago, yourkeau said:

or example: crimes against life (more than 10 years in prison): 558 in 2017, among that 89 Zuwanderer. So you have this disproportion at the start.

 

239 of those 633 (558 cases, 633 persons) were from nicht-deutsche, 99 of the 239 were zuwanderer. "Nicht-deutsche" includes zuwanderer but is not the same thing

 

Random "statistic" (since you mentioned crimes against life): 140 non-german non-zuwanderer committed 150 crimes against life, 394 germans commited 319. One could conclude that foreigners are more likely to be repeat offenders and germans are more likely to gang up on someone ;)

 

 

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Straftaten gegen die sexuelle Selbstbestimmung involving Zuwanderer:
(delict groups: rape, sexual abuse, exhibitionism, child pornography, pimping, sexual harassment)
- 753 cases (77.8%) : suspect Zuwanderer, victim not Zuwanderer
- 140 cases (14.5%) : suspect Zuwanderer, victim Zuwanderer
-  75 cases ( 7.7%) : suspect not Zuwanderer, victim Zuwanderer
which in my opinion is biased through selective underreporting.

 

Straftaten gegen das Leben involving Zuwanderer:
(delict groups: murder, manslaughter, abortion)
- 38 cases (37.6%) : suspect Zuwanderer, victim not Zuwanderer
- 51 cases (50.5%) : suspect Zuwanderer, victim Zuwanderer
- 12 cases (11.9%) : suspect not Zuwanderer, victim Zuwanderer

 

Rohheitsdelikte und Straftaten gegen die persönliche Freiheit involving Zuwanderer:
(delict groups: battery, robbery, deprivation of freedom, Nötigung)
- 5,149 cases (31.9%) : suspect Zuwanderer, victim not Zuwanderer
- 7,383 cases (45.8%) : suspect Zuwanderer, victim Zuwanderer
- 3,597 cases (22.3%) : suspect not Zuwanderer, victim Zuwanderer
of these: 35.78% committed in asylum homes

 

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On 28/03/2018, 16:50:48, msam said:

 

There's a "top 10 list" as well. Romania and Turkey on top then Poland, Syria... I have no idea how that compares to the total population

 

Mapping the Top 10 list on page 17 to population with such nationalities in Bavaria, sorted by relation:

  • Afghanistan - Population 38,520 - Suspects 4,291 (Relation: 11.14%) - note: 91% of suspects are Zuwanderer
  • Iraq - Population 37,100 - Suspects 3,435 (Relation: 9.26%) - note: 80% of suspects are Zuwanderer
  • Romania - Population 134,910 - Suspects 10,465 (Relation: 7.76%)
  • Syria - Population 62,450 - Suspects 4,738 (Relation: 7.59%) - note: 94% of suspects are Zuwanderer
  • Bulgaria - Population 44,415 - Suspects 2,964 (Relation: 6.67%)
  • Serbia - Population 22,270 to 41,955* - Suspects 2,506 (Relation: 5.97% to 11.25%)
  • Turkey - Population 197,025 - Suspects 8,971 (Relation : 4.55%)
  • Poland - Population 109,425 - Suspects 4,953 (Relation: 4.53%)
  • Italy - Population 99,875 - Suspects 3,991 (Relation: 4.00%)
  • Austria - Population 85,805 - Suspects 2,526 (Relation: 2.94%)

The above includes 7 of the 10 nationalities with the most people in Bavaria. For the other three of the Top 10 - Croatians, Greek, Hungarians - the relation rate should in each case be at less than 4%.

 

For Germans in Bavaria: Population 11,214,085 - Suspects 173,088 (Relation: 1.54%).

 

For some other nationalities the chart on page 48 gives an indication of minimum relation, i.e. the actual one is higher than that given below:

  • Somalia - Population 6,725 - Suspected Zuwanderer 1,327 (Relation: > 19.73%)
  • Nigeria - Population 14,745 - Suspected Zuwanderer 2,228 (Relation: > 15.11%)
  • Iran - Population 8,745 - Suspected Zuwanderer 992 (Relation: > 11.34%)
  • Eritrea - Population 9,430 - Suspected Zuwanderer 1,007 (Relation: > 10.68%)
  • Pakistan - Population 9,765 - Suspected Zuwanderer 892 (Relation: > 9.13%)
  • Ukraine - Population 27,975 - Suspected Zuwanderer 591 (Relation: > 2.11%) - note: number of little worth due to low number of Zuwanderer in group
  • Kosovo - Population 40,770 - Suspected Zuwanderer 586 (Relation: > 1.44%) - note: number of little worth due to low number of Zuwanderer in group

 

As a caveat to all those numbers we should keep in mind that the numbers are for suspects in criminal investigations, not for actual perpetrators of crime. With all the baggage that statement entails.

 

 

Note that populations are rounded to the next five for pseudonimity reasons. Source for population numbers is Genesis for Dec 31st 2016.

 

* depending on which Serbian nationality is included there.

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And since i was on Genesis anyway, general victimization analysis:

  • Age >=60 : Population 3,385,411 - Victims 7,955 (Relation: 0.235%) (Relative to average: 24.6%)
  • Age 21-59 : Population 6,988,190 - Victims 85,846 (Relation: 1.228%) (Relative to average: 128.6%)
  • Age 18-20 : Population 435,091 - Victims 12,114 (Relation: 2.784%) (Relative to average: 291.5%)
  • Age 14-17 : Population 506,384 - Victims 9,551 (Relation: 1.886%) (Relative to average: 197.5%)
  • Age <=13 : Population 1,615,675 - Victims 7,960 (Relation: 0.493%) (Relative to average: 51.6%)

Based on chart on page 18.

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30 minutes ago, kato said:

As a caveat to all those numbers we should keep in mind that the numbers are for suspects in criminal investigations, not for actual perpetrators of crime. With all the baggage that statement entails.

According to the explanation text, suspects include also those who somehow helped to commit a crime, children and mentally ill persons who are excluded from criminal liability. That is why this is police statistics, not justice statistics.

 

However, conviction rate is 81% in Bavaria (max Hessen 86%, min Hamburg 74%, Germany 81%, data from 2015).

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Crime statistics by region (each separate Polizeipräsidium):

Upper Franconia

Low Franconia

Central Franconia

Upper Palatinate

 

Swabia North

Swabia South/West (where our police officer BayrischDude lives)

 

Upper Bavaria North

Upper Bavaria South

Munich: no data available for 2017, see all Bavarian statistics pp. 13-14

 

Low Bavaria (this is where all refugees go because here lies the only border with Austria without Alps)

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PP Upper Franconia publishes politically motivated crimes:

 

Right extremism: 161 cases (210 in 2016)

Left extremism: 69 cases (58 in 2016)

Other: 52 cases (11 in 2016, highest since 2009)

 

Foreign and religious ideology: 6 cases

 

Don't ask me the meaning, I merely cite the report. No idea if Islamist extremism is counted as "other" or "foreign/religious".

 

Politically motivated violent crimes: 8 cases

Right:

Resisting arrest: 1

Bodily harm: 2

 

Left: 1 bodily harm

 

Other: 4 blackmails in relation to Reichsbürger conspiracy theorists

 

Police did massive check of all gun owners to identify Reichsbürger. 56 licenses were invalidated.

 

Crimes by Zuwanderer:

3455 suspects (2016: 2537), excluding immigration law violations

 

The report notes that increase of crime is mostly due to emergence of Bamberg refugee home, where most people have no chance to get asylum.

 

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Häufigkeitszahl (crime per capita times 100'000): 4533

 

Old Bavaria:

Munich 5658 (highest in Bavaria)

Upper North 3835

Upper South 3933

Lower 3562 (lowest in Bavaria)

 

Swabia:

North 4187

South/West 4062

 

Franconia/Upper Palatinate:

Upper 4499

Central 4923

Low 3915

Upper Palatinate 4039

 

All but two Bavarian regions (Munich and Central Franconia/Nuremberg region) have HZ lower than Bavaria average. Both high and low crime areas lie in southern Bavaria (Altbayern).

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9 hours ago, yourkeau said:

Swabia South/West (where our police officer BayrischDude lives)

 

 

Timing...  I'll be with two of the four local EPHKs tonight for a few wee drams...  war stories and solving a few world problems. 

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14 hours ago, yourkeau said:

 

All but two Bavarian regions (Munich and Central Franconia/Nuremberg region) have HZ lower than Bavaria average. Both high and low crime areas lie in southern Bavaria (Altbayern).

 

So the regions with the biggest cities have the highest crime rates and drive up the average...is that really surprising?

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Of course, nothing is surprising, including lower crime in the south: it borders with the Alps, while Upper Franconia and Upper Palatinate border with Czechia and host major transit routes to the West of Germany.

 

On the other hand, Low Franconia borders with Hessen/Frankfurt region, but is a very low crime area. That is surprising a bit.

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