Fiddling about with stocks, funds, etc. No conspiracy theories, please.

1,473 posts in this topic

16 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

Doesn't matter if it drops, it already went up hugely in the past 3 years. Whoever bought more than 3 years ago is doing great, even if prices fall next.


In fact, my lovely  wife just now mentioned that we have to save more in order to be able to buy all those cheaper houses :P

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What are the thoughts on holding cash right now?
 

And if (theoretically) someone had say €500k to invest where would be the safest place to put it where it could best maintain its current value?

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2 minutes ago, spleen69 said:

What are the thoughts on holding cash right now?
 

And if (theoretically) someone had say €500k to invest where would be the safest place to put it where it could best maintain its current value?


in my bank account.
 

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Just now, mtbiking said:


in my bank account.
 

 

What interest rate are you offering? :)

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In Turkey, the inflation was 80% in August, but the Turkish Central Bank Erdogan lowered the prime rate 1% to 12%. Makes sense 😆.

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Bought NVidia a couple of weeks ago but I'm reconsidering. Their new GPUs came out extremely expensive. At first I thought they were just milking the early adopters, which is a positive sign, which means big margins. Now I suspect they made these GPUs for a post-covid world where GPUs would be in high demand, so they didn't engineer them for cost, just performance. Problem is, with crypto down, a lot of the demand is down, and with AMD coming up with cheaper alternatives in November, I think I made a bad bet.

I still want to hold NVidia on the long run, but I feel it will still drop for the next half year or so.

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13 hours ago, spleen69 said:

What are the thoughts on holding cash right now?

With inflation nearing 10%, not too good. 

As for the 500k to invest, there is no single answer (save for giving it to a really good, professional financial adviser to take the decision for you), as diversity is the best all-round option irrespective of market conditions.

If you are worried about losing the lot, then property is worth considering, at least in part. For example, if you have one, you might want to consider paying off any mortgage before interest rates rise (living debt-free is a very nice position). Alternatively, if there is relatively good value property for sale (compared to equivalent places in the same area) in a relatively good area, you are not going to lose everything even if the market tanks.

 

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13 hours ago, spleen69 said:

What are the thoughts on holding cash right now?
 

And if (theoretically) someone had say €500k to invest where would be the safest place to put it where it could best maintain its current value?

 

If you had 500k dollars to spend you could buy a European country.

 

This morning everything is collapsing against the dolar.

 

1 dollar = 0.9792 Euros.

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Blimey, things are getting spicy in the markets.

 

Markets still in freefall, Euro and GBP not doing much better.

 

Italian 10 year bond at 4.837

UK 10 year bond at 4.6.

 

Could be an interesting day.

 

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Been talking with a financial advisor, I might put some money aside for hassle-free wealth management. I can only track a few stocks and want to diversify without spending much time.

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6 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

I can only track a few stocks and want to diversify without spending much time.

Why then not buying simple and boring indexes?

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3 hours ago, Gambatte said:

Why then not buying simple and boring indexes?

Done that, but even indexes are going up and down quite a lot. And I want to diversify a bit more.

 

I also tried a few more specific indexes and my broker doesn't allow me to buy them, unsure why.

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Diversification is always a good idea to improve safety in the market, but obviously you pay the price of less gains. I like  diversify  more than bigger gains, it just a choice.

 

As already said at the beginning of the year I sold at least half of my investments at the beginning of the year, and I am quite happy about that now.

 

I have bought and sold some stuff, I like, but in quite small numbers

 

Looking at the future, I think there is more bad news to come so I am not buying anything in big numbers at the moment, when I think the market will grow again, then I will buy a diversity of stocks and tracking investment funds.

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, yesterday said:

Looking at the future, I think there is more bad news to come so I am not buying anything in big numbers at the moment,

 

You can always short sell, can't you?

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7 hours ago, yesterday said:

Looking at the future, I think there is more bad news to come so I am not buying anything in big numbers at the moment, when I think the market will grow again, then I will buy a diversity of stocks and tracking investment funds.

If there is a nuclear attack or if China's crisis comes earlier than expected, I agree. Besides those 2, I'm quite confident we're close to the bottom and it will start going up by the end of the year.

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1 hour ago, MikeMelga said:

If there is a nuclear attack or if China's crisis comes earlier than expected, I agree. Besides those 2, I'm quite confident we're close to the bottom and it will start going up by the end of the year.

 

yes, I can agree you could be right

 

I believe the world was already in a bad place even before the Russian invasion

 

Things like 

 

  • High levels of inflation were before Russia invaded, over 5 % in the UK, Musk commented late last year of seeing high inflation
  • As we come into winter, I maybe think COVID 19 rates will rise, because we have so many anti vacciners around, death rate may rise, shut down economy comes, think Airline problem, that have not had enough time to get stable again
  • Most Governments are predicting, a big recession, to last well in to next year, perhaps late next year.
  • The World economy has taken a major shock with oil and Gas prices, its going to take time to adjust to that, not just this year, where will Germany get cheap gas from in the future, if we do not go back to Russia under a new leader. Also OPEC is cutting production to keep, high profits. This will cause a lot of problems for many compaines around the world.
  • Governments are preparing massif loans, which will have to be paid back, debt that will take decades to pay off.
  • yes, of course Ukraine and China will affect the picture.
  • I think that there will be a crash in the housing market, later this year and all of 2023.

 

While I have been an adult and able to think about stuff, I cannot think of a worse situation than we have at the moment, I am known as being naturally negative, that also affects my thinking, to be honest, I wish now I had got rid of almost all my investments in jan/feb this( not only half of them ), as the DOW has fallen from 35000, to 29500 and thats reflected in stock markets around the world.

 

The ones I am most happy are the ones gaining over the same time period.

 

The DOW has not been so low, until the last months of Trump's presidency and that was a while a go

 

 

hey this is investing every bodies view can be right, you made a very good move over Tesla, I would imagine you made a lot more than me, as I got out too early. Looking at the Tesla price now, I am very tempted to buy some, they clearly will be around for a while, they have very good Technolgy and a lot of people want them. If only I had the balls to do it

 

What positive signs do you see in the world /markets that indicate a recovery starting by end 2022 ???

 

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10 hours ago, yesterday said:

What positive signs do you see in the world /markets that indicate a recovery starting by end 2022 ???

The fact that inflation is already going down much stronger than y-o-y comparisons make it seem. We´ve seen peak inflation. Financial markets are already anticipating 2% within 5 years as indicated by the yields of inflation-linked bonds (at min 28 in German: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dGjBfvEdY-g). Therefore, the FED will raise interest rates rise only one more time.

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Agree peak inflation is passed or near passed. Also think (and hope!) FED doesn't raise much more, if at all. To raise it much more is stupid, because it would precipitate a recession.

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