Fiddling about with stocks, funds, etc. No conspiracy theories, please.

[jeba 4,363]

4 hours ago, fraufruit said:

If I bought pharmas every time they have a promising drug in the pipeline...

This drug is already on the market - just for a different indication (diabetes). That means they only have to get approval for widening the purpose of its use.

[fraufruit 42,164]

Good luck. I hope they do well.

[yesterday 2,022]

Is this the of the Euro ???

 

 

 

Or just BS

 

 

 

[LukeSkywalker 7,630]

Another deep red day on the stock markets.

[fraufruit 42,164]

It's getting painful.

[RenegadeFurther 2,393]

2 hours ago, fraufruit said:

It's getting painful.

 

What do you mean?

[jeba 4,363]

According to JPMorgan the bottom should be around 3000 for the S&P500. THis is based on that historically a P/E ratio of 15 has always been a turning point and the assumption that earnings are currently overestimated by 20%.

[RenegadeFurther 2,393]

11 hours ago, jeba said:

According to JPMorgan the bottom should be around 3000 for the S&P500. THis is based on that historically a P/E ratio of 15 has always been a turning point and the assumption that earnings are currently overestimated by 20%.

 

A lot depends whether the FED can get a grip on inflation.

[LukeSkywalker 7,630]

Was just reading that the Dow experienced the worst half year since 1970. 

[fraufruit 42,164]

I believe it. It has been quite a ride. 

 

Don't sell, don't lose. It will get back up.

[RenegadeFurther 2,393]

15 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

I believe it. It has been quite a ride. 

 

Don't sell, don't lose. It will get back up.

 

Market is still over valued.

 

[mtbiking 1,894]

45 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

I believe it. It has been quite a ride. 

 

Don't sell, don't lose. It will get back up.

 

And in the meantime, I just got the biggest dividend payout ever from my Vanguard ETFs as compensation for doing precisely nothing. Enough for a lot of gas 🥂 

[TurMech 180]

1 hour ago, fraufruit said:

I believe it. It has been quite a ride. 

 

Don't sell, don't lose. It will get back up.

 

And buy more to reduce the average Buy-in price maybe?

[fraufruit 42,164]

Of course except I need to hang onto my cash instead. I'm not a long term investor any more - living from my investments.

 

The dividends do keep rolling in.

[Gambatte 925]

On 6/16/2022, 9:05:26, jeba said:

According to JPMorgan the bottom should be around...

 

They don't know

[mtbiking 1,894]

8 minutes ago, Gambatte said:

 

They don't know

In all fairness neither does Renegadefurther.

[TurMech 180]

On 9.1.2021, 12:37:50, MikeMelga said:

Agree, the ones who can predict are rich and they dont bother writting in web forums.

My assumption is that all the spending during this crisis was done at government relaxing fiscal rules and a lot of money printing. I think economy will go up fast during 2021, as the crisis passes, companies have cheap money to invest, and people spend the money they saved in 2020, but someday someone has to pay for this. Therefore I think there will be a sovereign debt crisis within 2-4 years.

 

Any predictions for the following few years??

[MikeMelga 7,312]

15 hours ago, TurMech said:

 

Any predictions for the following few years??

I think we're entering the "sovereign debt crisis" phase. Cheap money can't last forever. Several countries are already going again for austerity and rolling back covid incentives.

Inflation will peak soon in most countries and will go back to normal in 2024 or late 2023. Can be rushed if Russia quits Ukraine before end of 2022.

 

I think we're on a tricky phase, too many macro problems at the same time. Ukraine war, inflation, possible recession and deflation (!), lack of workers in some sectors, supply chain disruptions, etc. I also think these disruptions will create havoc in the 3rd world, together with crypto downturn. This could mean wars, massive immigration, instability, etc.

 

Meaning strong oscillations in the market and some players going up and others going down. It's the time to make a lot of money or lose a lot.

 

[fraufruit 42,164]

17 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

I think we're on a tricky phase, too many macro problems at the same time. Ukraine war, inflation, possible recession and deflation (!), lack of workers in some sectors, supply chain disruptions, etc. I also think these disruptions will create havoc in the 3rd world, together with crypto downturn.

 

You left out one thing (which is the cause of some of the others). Covid is running rampant in many countries.

[yesterday 2,022]

Should say "Opinions are like assholes, everybody's got one and everyone" !!

 

Think MM is mostly on target, but there are a lot of people out there that think we are going to go in to a major recession, with the stock market losing at least half its value from here.

 

Don't really think anybody really knows, if we did we would all have  millions.

 

I sold almost half my investments in January, because things looked so bad, and think there is a chance things are going to get a lot worse, yeah but maybe I am just pessimistic.  I have done some buying and selling in the last weeks but only minor stuff.

 

In these situations, some people think buying pork stocks are good as people will always need to eat, so you have a garneted market, to some extent, while other stuff you buy can be stopped if things get bad, but then there is is no real performance. I try to limit the damage to my sexy stocks at the moment.