Fiddling about with stocks, funds, etc. No conspiracy theories, please.

911 posts in this topic

13 hours ago, john g. said:

Just imagine the court cases if a professional financial advisor signed that prophesy and his client lost money...

 

Pro financial advisers don't sign such papers. Investors know that everything is a risk.

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8 hours ago, fraufruit said:

 

Pro financial advisers don't sign such papers. Investors know that everything is a risk.

In Germany.. ouch..., fraufruit! Everything I do with a client comes with massive paperwork and signatures. As an insurance broker, I am liable if things go wrong and I have to prove I did due diligence in the best interests of the client. Moi. Strict rules for my licence.

I am a professional independent insurance broker and authorised advertiser. Contact me.
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Only with funds coupled with insurance in certain cases. I have given up all the rest. Too tired and it is all too bureaucratic, fraufruit. 

Insurances- no guarantees in life, either.

People ask me what their health insurance, pension, household insurance etc will cost in 5, 10 , 20 years. I am supposed to know that? Nobody knows that.

I prefer honesty even if it means I don‘t get the contract.

I am a professional independent insurance broker and authorised advertiser. Contact me.
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Around 6th Feb a closed all my positions sensing that Covid-19 would have impacted on the market. Maybe a bit too early ( I guess I lost further 8% of gain before te crash) but I don't regret it at all.

Now I was waiting for (at least) a double bottom before putting back my money on the market and increase my Crypto portfolio but all this is going crazily up :(

Let see now with the Q1 earnings but if I look at the forecasts they are already very low so it will be quite easy to beat them.

 

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17 minutes ago, Frantic said:

Around 6th Feb a closed all my positions sensing that Covid-19 would have impacted on the market. Maybe a bit too early ( I guess I lost further 8% of gain before te crash) but I don't regret it at all.

Now I was waiting for (at least) a double bottom before putting back my money on the market and increase my Crypto portfolio but all this is going crazily up :(

Let see now with the Q1 earnings but if I look at the forecasts they are already very low so it will be quite easy to beat them.

 

 

The stock market is completely detached from reality.

 

The stock market now assume that if there is bad news the Central Banks will just print more money.

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7 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

The stock market is completely detached from reality.

 

The stock market now assume that if there is bad news the Central Banks will just print more money.

No. the stock market knows that

a) there is a good chance this dies out in a few months

b ) there is a lot of money being given to companies, so the market will be much stronger when this ends

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8 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

No. the stock market knows that

a) there is a good chance this dies out in a few months

b ) there is a lot of money being given to companies, so the market will be much stronger when this ends

 

The stock market is propped up by the Fed.

 

Remove the trillinns in bailout money, where would the stock market go?

 

You really believe that the stock market is soaring ´(not today)  because everyone thinks this will end soon and not because of the stimulus package.

 

 

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The stimulus package is a giant gift for corporations at the expense of public spending and debt. Of course the stock market recognizes this as good.

And I am also confident that business (almost) as usual is a few months away.

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My daily report that I got this morning. Of course, we gave some back today but that is the norm now.

 

  • US stocks rallied sharply on Wednesday as the S&P 500 rose 2.7% to close at 2,940. With the rally, the index is now down 9% year to date and has corrected 13.2% from the February 19 all-time high.
 
  • Stocks rallied overnight following better-than-expected results from one of the tech giants yesterday afternoon, and gains were added to this morning as reports surfaced that a high-profile experimental COVID-19 treatment currently under development was showing encouraging early results. The Federal Reserve was also in focus with the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon, though the markets’ reaction was muted following the Fed’s announcement, which largely went as expected, with the Fed keeping its policy rate at the 0%–0.25% lower bound, and committing to continued asset purchases as needed.
 
  • Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher Wednesday, with Energy (+7.4%) and Communication Services (+5.1%) outperforming the broader market, while Consumer Staples (-0.4%) and Utilities (-0.9%) lagged.
 
  • Rates were mixed across the curve, with the yield on the 10-year virtually unchanged at 0.61% as of the 4 p.m. equity close. WTI oil rose to over $15 per barrel, while gold rose 0.4%. The US dollar was modestly lower, as measured by the US Dollar Index.

So down only 9% from the Feb. 19 all time high which was unreal as far as I'm concerned. Not too bad yet.

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2 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

 

And I am also confident that business (almost) as usual is a few months away.

Cannot see how we are going back to normal if there is nothing that can mitigate the virus, like vaccine or something

 

Just look at the damage done to the economy in the last month or so, its massive.

 

There is no way, the governments will let people mass travel, in fear that the virus will spread again, because if that happens we would need another lockdown

 

I am sorry but the PIGS ( as it was called  in the debt crisis ), ie Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain are going to suffer a massive loss of custom this summer, I am sorry about that, but we cannot risk another peak or the virus for the damage on the economy

I would like to go, but being a high risk person feel that it would be stupid for me to go even if its offered. 

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Today, unemployment hit a massive 20% in the USA (30 million people), but the Dow Jones only lost 1.17%.  Seems it was already anticipated. It will be interesting to see how the market develops as more negative news will pour in on a daily basis and when world recession becomes a fact.

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On 4/27/2020, 7:18:07, fraufruit said:

Was just on the phone with my broker for an hour. He still doesn't think it is time to buy. Another dip coming. Chasing the market is a fool's game. I'm not a day trader.

 

Buying when the market is at a cyclical low is not day trading.  

 

If any of the shares you now own went below your cost basis, you would have done well to buy.  If I had a broker who doesn't "think" it's time to buy or "thinks" a dip is coming is a broker I would stay away from.

 

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On 4/28/2020, 8:36:00, jeba said:

Yes, but that´s still gambling, not investing. Not that there is anythinhg wrong with gambling - as long as you can afford to lose.

 

Researching the value of a company and buying shares of ownership is not even close to gambling.  People who make that comparison do not understand how markets work, even as they affect their daily life.  Buy any bread lately?  Electricity?  Petrol?  Get paid for work you do?  All market driven.

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6 hours ago, catjones said:

 

Researching the value of a company and buying shares of ownership is not even close to gambling.  People who make that comparison do not understand how markets work, even as they affect their daily life.  Buy any bread lately?  Electricity?  Petrol?  Get paid for work you do?  All market driven.

 

I thought he was specifically talking about Tesla shares.

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6 hours ago, catjones said:

 

Researching the value of a company and buying shares of ownership is not even close to gambling.  People who make that comparison do not understand how markets work, even as they affect their daily life.  Buy any bread lately?  Electricity?  Petrol?  Get paid for work you do?  All market driven.

There is only so much you can come to know by research. E. g. to what extent the books are manipulated (valuations given aren´t usually current but as of the date of the latest report) or whether the CEO is planning to dilute by issuing new shares to raise funds or whether a competitor will take over the company at firesale prices or even more suspicious, whether a management buyout will happen at firesale prices.

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8 hours ago, catjones said:

If any of the shares you now own went below your cost basis, you would have done well to buy.  If I had a broker who doesn't "think" it's time to buy or "thinks" a dip is coming is a broker I would stay away from.

 

This is not always true. GE, my biggest loser has been falling for a long time. I picked up more shares on the way down and it still fell. Should have waited. I have a couple more like that. 

 

All I need is x amount of money each month until I die. I still have that capability. That was my plan all along, thanks to my broker. We will pick up some stuff just not yet. Cash is king right now, IMO, and I'm currently living from mine. 

 

I was much more aggressive in all the years leading up to retirement.

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Sure taking to a broker and getting advise is never wrong or buying a tips sheets for shares to buy.either

 

The only thing with brokers advice is that they expect you to buy/sell through them which means they have an interest in you buy and selling as much as possible, because that's how they make their money. 

Obviously, if they could predict the market well enough they would be investing and make even money that they did not need to advise clients, but they do not which is why they advise you to buy and sell, thus making enough money for them to live on.

I think its best to take what they say in conjunction with your own research and tips from others before buying and selling, but thats where anyone can see its hard.

 

I have been buying during this crisis on the way down, and some on the way up, and am in profit overall, but shares like Tesla, have done very well and I must thank @MegaMike for that. I still think its a hype share but who cares if you make money on the bubble.

 

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1 hour ago, yesterday said:

Sure taking to a broker and getting advise is never wrong or buying a tips sheets for shares to buy.either

 

The only thing with brokers advice is that they expect you to buy/sell through them which means they have an interest in you buy and selling as much as possible, because that's how they make their money. 

Obviously, if they could predict the market well enough they would be investing and make even money that they did not need to advise clients, but they do not which is why they advise you to buy and sell, thus making enough money for them to live on.

 

I disagree. First, I've never heard of buying tip sheets but there are tips all over the internet which I pretty much ignore.

 

My broker has plenty of his own investments. Our calls are recorded. When he recommends something, I alway as if he has any. It is usually yes. He cannot lie (and he wouldn't anyway) or he could lose his job.

 

If his interest was having me buy and sell, he sure has a funny way of showing it. Probably 2 or 3 transactions in the last year. I do pay regular fees, though. That is his and his company's bread and butter. I have also bought a lot of no load shares and funds over the years. No fees to buy and no fees to sell after holding for one year.

 

Nobody can predict the market. Everyone knows that. 

 

Himself has his own investments. Like you, he chooses his own. He's done pretty good.

 

There is more than one way to invest for your future. No right. No wrong.

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