Fiddling about with stocks, funds, etc. No conspiracy theories, please.

771 posts in this topic

27 minutes ago, silty1 said:

 

So any good advice for when the demand picks up again and all that cash they're throwing from helicopters starts working its way into inflation  or the dreaded stagflation?

 

I don't understand the question. Sorry. Could you type real slow?

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I never give advice to other people  about the future because nobody knows.

I can only say what I do - keep some money in the bank for a new fridge and, otherwise , invest long term on a monthly basis in mutual funds and “ enjoy “ the benefits of the Cost Average Effect- if prices are low or crashing- you buy more for less. If values are high, the “ cheaply bought stuff “ is worth more ( temporarily ).. but I see all this long term. 
It’s not the “ now “ timing that counts (unless you are a gambler and a risk taker -fine.. ) and if you don’t mind extreme risks of loss but also high chances of making a decent buck ) but the long term timing. Even then, nobody knows but it’s the best chance of coming out better off.

These days, I only have ecology funds , sustainable development etc. The idealist in me? Yes, but also something I can live with ethically.

And, of course , I make sure my real life risks are covered- health and all the worst case scenarios for myself and family etc.

 

I am a professional independent insurance broker and authorised advertiser. Contact me.
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12 hours ago, john g. said:

but I see all this long term. 

Cant´t remember who said it and it´s not much consolation - but true: Long term we´ll all be dead.

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6 hours ago, jeba said:

Cant´t remember who said it and it´s not much consolation - but true: Long term we´ll all be dead.

 

That would be John Maynard Keynes in 1923. 

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6 hours ago, jeba said:

Cant´t remember who said it and it´s not much consolation - but true: Long term we´ll all be dead.


What’s your point? What John said and does is 100% correct. After hitting retirement you can take out 3 to 3.5% per year and be almost certain never to run out of money. More even in the good years or if you retire at a later age and also if like most people there’s a pension or social security besides. 

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1 hour ago, mtbiking said:

What’s your point?

For instance that I wouldn´t buy a bond with a 30 year maturity anymore.

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This market ain't for sissies. How's everyone doing? Me, hanging in there.

 

On 4/7/2020, 4:44:12, mtbiking said:

After hitting retirement you can take out 3 to 3.5% per year and be almost certain never to run out of money.

 

Yep, been doing this for almost 5 years now without touching any principal. Maybe closer to 4%.

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16 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

This market ain't for sissies. How's everyone doing? Me, hanging in there.

 

 

Not sure what to make of it all.

 

Looks like the Fed is propping up the whole stock market.

 

I think we are in phase 2 (brief rally) of the bear market, phase 3 will be absolutely brutal (the panic phase).

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12 hours ago, fraufruit said:

This market ain't for sissies. How's everyone doing? Me, hanging in there.

Keeping 20% of liquidity waiting for the next leg down. Still overweight energy stocks (midstream and renewables). 80% of my assets in US$ while wishing to hedge exchange rate. Any idea how to do that the cheapest way? Futures will cost roughly 1%/year? Is there a cheaper way?

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16 hours ago, fraufruit said:

This market ain't for sissies. How's everyone doing? Me, hanging in there.


Everything is fine, I invested some of my money reserves a couple weeks ago outside the biweekly sparplan. Bought Vanguard world and Berkshire Hathaway. Considering to buy oil futures right now. Saving more money than usual (no dinning out, no traveling adds up). That’s more money for the sparplan. Glad that my wife is I’m health care, even my company can run into problems if the supply chain evaporates.

 

My financial investments are taking a beating, but I wasn’t selling anyway. 

 

I also had a good talk with my bank advisor.. if the property prices in Munich do break and something irresistible pops up we want to be ready.

 

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8 minutes ago, mtbiking said:


Everything is fine, I invested some of my money reserves a couple weeks ago outside the biweekly sparplan. Bought Vanguard world and Berkshire Hathaway. Considering to buy oil futures right now. Saving more money than usual (no dinning out, no traveling adds up). That’s more money for the sparplan. Glad that my wife is I’m health care, even my company can run into problems if the supply chain evaporates.

 

 

 

How low was the Dow Jones when u invested?

 

I try to catch 4 trigger points and managed to invest something when the Dow was at 18700.

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3 hours ago, jeba said:

Keeping 20% of liquidity waiting for the next leg down. Still overweight energy stocks (midstream and renewables). 80% of my assets in US$ while wishing to hedge exchange rate. Any idea how to do that the cheapest way? Futures will cost roughly 1%/year? Is there a cheaper way?

 

Sorry, can't help you on those two points. I never heard of converting assets without selling them and I don't do futures. Funny how that liquidity percentage keeps going up, right? Not.

 

Here's my daily report on the market yesterday -

 

  • US stocks declined on Tuesday as the S&P 500 fell 3.1% to close at 2,737. With the sell-off, the index is now down 15.3% year to date and has corrected 19.2% from the February 19 all-time high.
 
  • Stocks fell for a second straight day as oil markets again dominated attention following yesterday’s historic slide in prices. Yet, even as oil prices largely traded lower again on Tuesday, Energy stocks were among the day’s relative leaders, recording only modest losses. The real driver of weakness was Technology, with the sector off 4.1%. It appeared there may have been some profit taking ahead of earnings season in recent leaders, with several large Technology companies slated to report results this week. Outside of oil and earnings, Washington remains in focus, with the Senate scheduled to vote tonight on a bill that would upsize funding for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP).
 
  • All 11 S&P 500 sectors were lower Tuesday, with Utilities (-1.6%) and Real Estate (-1.6%) outperforming the broader market, while Financials (-3.2%) and Information Technology (-4.1%) lagged.
 
  • Rates were lower across the curve, with the yield on the 10-year falling to 0.57% as of the 4 p.m. equity close. The yield curve flattened, as 10-year rates fell more than 2-year rates. Gold fell 0.6%, while the US dollar was modestly higher, as measured by the US Dollar Index.
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2 hours ago, fraufruit said:

 

Sorry, can't help you on those two points. I never heard of converting assets without selling them and I don't do futures. Funny how that liquidity percentage keeps going up, right? Not.

 

Here's my daily report on the market yesterday -

 

  • US stocks declined on Tuesday as the S&P 500 fell 3.1% to close at 2,737. With the sell-off, the index is now down 15.3% year to date and has corrected 19.2% from the February 19 all-time high.
 
  • Stocks fell for a second straight day as oil markets again dominated attention following yesterday’s historic slide in prices. Yet, even as oil prices largely traded lower again on Tuesday, Energy stocks were among the day’s relative leaders, recording only modest losses. The real driver of weakness was Technology, with the sector off 4.1%. It appeared there may have been some profit taking ahead of earnings season in recent leaders, with several large Technology companies slated to report results this week. Outside of oil and earnings, Washington remains in focus, with the Senate scheduled to vote tonight on a bill that would upsize funding for the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP).
 
  • All 11 S&P 500 sectors were lower Tuesday, with Utilities (-1.6%) and Real Estate (-1.6%) outperforming the broader market, while Financials (-3.2%) and Information Technology (-4.1%) lagged.
 
  • Rates were lower across the curve, with the yield on the 10-year falling to 0.57% as of the 4 p.m. equity close. The yield curve flattened, as 10-year rates fell more than 2-year rates. Gold fell 0.6%, while the US dollar was modestly higher, as measured by the US Dollar Index.

 

Unfortunately the biggest factor in the stock market is the fed.

 

It now looks like the Fed will do absolutely anything and buy absolutely everything to prevent a stock market crash including buying Junk Bonds.

 

However if no one else is buying and the Fed is the only one buying then this will not work, nor will it prevent a crash.

 

Hence I do expect phase 3 of the bear market to happen.

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Even on the Great Depression the average stock value did not drop more than 30%. That is what I am defining as "bottom". This was reached on the 23rd of March, compared with December.

If you want to compare it to a year ago, then the lowest we had was "only" 18%, meaning it could still go down 10pp below that.

 

If you use the Great Recession as a comparison, then the value could go down 50% from peak and some 40% from before the peak.

 

What makes this so special is that this was not caused by an economical situation. So yes, it can go down, but yes, recovery for the market is most likely to be very fast.

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4 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

 

What makes this so special is that this was not caused by an economical situation. So yes, it can go down, but yes, recovery for the market is most likely to be very fast.

 

You don`t know what type of consumer will emerge from life after Corona. Things after Corona could be very different.

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5 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Even on the Great Depression the average stock value did not drop more than 30%. That is what I am defining as "bottom". This was reached on the 23rd of March, compared with December.

If you want to compare it to a year ago, then the lowest we had was "only" 18%, meaning it could still go down 10pp below that.

 

If you use the Great Recession as a comparison, then the value could go down 50% from peak and some 40% from before the peak.

 

What makes this so special is that this was not caused by an economical situation. So yes, it can go down, but yes, recovery for the market is most likely to be very fast.

What we don’t and can’t know is the damage caused by the prohibition of mass events eg concerts, sports matches and international tourism etc if this goes on much longer. 

I am a professional independent insurance broker and authorised advertiser. Contact me.
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7 minutes ago, john g. said:

What we don’t and can’t know is the damage caused by the prohibition of mass events eg concerts, sports matches and international tourism etc if this goes on much longer.

 

1 hour ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

You don`t know what type of consumer will emerge from life after Corona. Things after Corona could be very different.

 

People have disposable income. If they can´t go to concerts nor sport matches, they will spend it somewhere else.

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28 minutes ago, MikeMelga said:

 

 

People have disposable income. If they can´t go to concerts nor sport matches, they will spend it somewhere else.

Assuming the millions unemployed find work.

 

Will restaurants fill up? Will people go on vacation and on cruise ships?

 

If no one is buying, I really don`t see a fast recovery.

 

Most analyst see this as a U shaped recovery and not a V shaped recovery.

 

The question remains is how long is the bottom of the U.

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2 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

Assuming the millions unemployed find work.

The money being spent is from the ones who either are not fired or simply have enough disposable income.

 

2 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Will restaurants fill up? Will people go on vacation and on cruise ships?

 

If no one is buying, I really don`t see a fast recovery.

 

Most analyst see this as a U shaped recovery and not a V shaped recovery.

 

The question remains is how long is the bottom of the U.

Money is being printed and handed over in huge amounts to big corporations. Some of my consumer electronic customers in Asia are investing like crazy, because of "free money" and they see consumption going high in a few months.

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