Fiddling about with stocks, funds, etc. No conspiracy theories, please.

747 posts in this topic

5 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

Stupid as shit to sell at this point. Not time to pick up bargains yet, either, IMO.

 

No, giving it a week or two. One thing Trump and my wife agree on, warmer weather will for the most part take care of the virus. My main concern is that the damage to the economy caused by the current panic will be structural and trigger a major recession/slow recovery.

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Just now, fraufruit said:

The other huge driver in the price drop is the oil crisis. At least as much as corona, IMO.

 

One lead to the other. Nothing that we haven't seen in 2008.

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22 hours ago, fraufruit said:

Stupid as shit to sell at this point. Not time to pick up bargains yet, either, IMO.

 

I'll be buying some every week.

I don't know how to recognize when it's turning up again. Maybe I won't make as much money on stuff i buy now than I make on things I will buy in 2 weeks. But if/when things go back to normal I'll have made some money.

 

But it looks like the panic is starting to set in around here . . . so yeah, probably worst is yet to come.

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I've been getting daily reports from my financial guy throughout this market nightmare. I will share the one I got today that sums it up nicely. This is the U.S. markets, of course, so some might not be interested.

 

  • US stocks rallied on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 4.9% to close at 2,882. This comes after the index recorded its worst day since 2008 on Monday, with the S&P 500 falling nearly 8%. With today’s rally, the index is still down 10.8% year to date, and has corrected 14.9% from the February 19, all-time high.
 
  • Tuesday’s rally appeared driven at least, in part, by hopes that governments may enact fiscal measures aimed at stemming the economic impacts related to the spread of the coronavirus. The White House has scheduled a press briefing for Tuesday evening at which several initiatives may be announced, though at the time of this writing few details of any potential action have been made public. Reports also crossed the wire during the session that the Italian government was considering stimulus, and several governments have pledged support in the wake of the recent economic disruption associated with the virus.
 
  • All 11 S&P 500 sectors were higher Tuesday, with Technology (+6.6%) and Financials (+6.0%) outperforming, while Consumer Staples (+2.9%) and Utilities (+1.0%) underperformed the broader market.
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On 3/10/2020, 1:31:47, Maarsch said:

I'll be buying some every week.

I don't know how to recognize when it's turning up again. Maybe I won't make as much money on stuff i buy now than I make on things I will buy in 2 weeks. But if/when things go back to normal I'll have made some money.

 

But it looks like the panic is starting to set in around here . . . so yeah, probably worst is yet to come.

 

The first part of this post isn't aging well :D

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11 minutes ago, Maarsch said:

 

The first part of this post isn't aging well :D


Just forget about it and hold on for the ride. In 10/15 years the Corona recession will be something discussed in academic books and everybody will be fretting about the next recession. That’s my prediction anyway. The only important thing at the moment is so secure your income and minimize spending.

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On 9.3.2020, 16:04:47, fraufruit said:

Stupid as shit to sell at this point.

I wish I had been stupid as shit. Feeling shitty now for not having sold. And no, most closed-end funds won´t recover easily because many of them were forced to sell at firesale prices because of regulated debt/NAV ratios. Which added to the problem, of course.

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At least I have some of this -

 

Quote

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc (REGN), said it had identified hundreds of virus-neutralizing antibodies that could potentially be used to treat coronavirus as a prophylaxis before exposure and for those already infected.

Shares soared 12% in U.S. trading closing at $491.69 on Tuesday as the Nasdaq Composite Index added 6.2% during the same session. Wall Street analysts have a positive outlook on Regeneron, rating the pharmaceuticals company with a moderate buy and an average price target of $465 per share.

 

Up almost 58% since I bought it in June 2019. One tiny silver lining in a sea of red. :o

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On 18/03/2020, 12:52:39, mtbiking said:

Just forget about it and hold on for the ride. In 10/15 years the Corona recession 

 

Great if this applies to you.

I guess if you were s pensioner in your mid or late 70s, and although not ill no longer in best health, then "no, prob, let's just wait 10-15yr and it will have recovered" is not what you would be saying.

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2 hours ago, Gambatte said:

 

Great if this applies to you.

I guess if you were s pensioner in your mid or late 70s, and although not ill no longer in best health, then "no, prob, let's just wait 10-15yr and it will have recovered" is not what you would be saying.

 

if you’re a pensioner fully invested in stocks without any other significant source of income and with just enough invested that a crash can destroy you instead of merely annoying you it’s your problem, not mine. There’s a reason why people reaching pension age are advised to increasingly swap stocks for bonds and other stabler assets in their portfolio and get some fixed income assets (pension, rental, etc), and that’s the short-medium term uncertainty of the stock market. This is not something newly discovered in the last few weeks, it’s been in its modern form going on for over 100 years. 
 

Hell, I’m forty and don’t want to be fully invested in stocks, that’s why I also bought property and keep a significant reserve in cash. Sleep better that way.

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Advisers often talk about having 3 pots of cash, short term, medium term and long term but it's not till you hit a major correction like this that it really hits home. I've got a stock matching program with my job and I've been planning on selling the stocks in 3 years to buy an motorhome.  The stock is down nearly 50% so if I was planning on doing this now I'd be looking at borrowing a 100 grand and hoping the market doesn't take too long to recover. 

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54 minutes ago, Rushrush said:

Advisers often talk about having 3 pots of cash, short term, medium term and long term but it's not till you hit a major correction like this that it really hits home. I've got a stock matching program with my job and I've been planning on selling the stocks in 3 years to buy an motorhome.  The stock is down nearly 50% so if I was planning on doing this now I'd be looking at borrowing a 100 grand and hoping the market doesn't take too long to recover. 


Nobody needs a €100,000 motor home, unless you plan on living there in which case you’re saving rent. That’s a good example of a luxury, lifestyle purchase which can be postponed, cancelled or downsized during a downturn . Buying it on credit, on the other hand, would be insane in my view.
 

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10 hours ago, mtbiking said:

if you’re a pensioner fully invested in stocks without any other significant source of income and with just enough invested that a crash can destroy you instead of merely annoying you it’s your problem, not mine.

 

I don't know of any pensioners that are fully invested. I always keep enough cash to get me through 3 or 4 years of a tits up market like we have now. Having said that, I still have some investments that are up over 100% should I need to sell. We could also live off of Himself's pension if we absolutely had to. It would be rough but doable.

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20 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

 

I don't know of any pensioners that are fully invested. I always keep enough cash to get me through 3 or 4 years of a tits up market like we have now. Having said that, I still have some investments that are up over 100% should I need to sell. We could also live off of Himself's pension if we absolutely had to. It would be rough but doable.


Sounds entirely reasonable 👍

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On 3/18/2020, 12:52:39, mtbiking said:


Just forget about it and hold on for the ride. In 10/15 years the Corona recession will be something discussed in academic books and everybody will be fretting about the next recession. That’s my prediction anyway. The only important thing at the moment is so secure your income and minimize spending.

 

There is a problem with that. It is called the corporate debt crisis which will make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

 

Unless the company of whose stock you are holding has a huge amount of cash that company might not exist in 10 to 15 years. 

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On 3/22/2020, 3:23:34, RenegadeFurther said:

 

There is a problem with that. It is called the corporate debt crisis which will make 2008 look like a walk in the park.

 

Unless the company of whose stock you are holding has a huge amount of cash that company might not exist in 10 to 15 years. 


since I almost only own US and world index Fonds I only need companies to exist in 10 to 15 years. Which ones is irrelevant.

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17 minutes ago, mtbiking said:


since I almost only own US and world index Fonds I only need companies to exist in 10 to 15 years. Which ones is irrelevant.

 

Good luck.

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