Fiddling about with stocks, funds, etc. No conspiracy theories, please.

423 posts in this topic

I can feel a crash coming on. It's in my waters. You read it here first.

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Can`t see a crash coming.

 

Central Banks would just start QE again.

 

Also some central banks might also consider the option of Helicopter money.

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8 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

Can`t see a crash coming.

 

Central Banks would just start QE again.

 

Also some central banks might also consider the option of Helicopter money.

 

I also hope so. Germany is in good state as of now. lets see how it goes.

I am in the process of buying a property in Munich and if there is lot of speculation about crash coming, i might not have peaceful nights ahead.

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4 minutes ago, CryptoAndBeyond said:

 

I also hope so. Germany is in good state as of now. lets see how it goes.

I am in the process of buying a property in Munich and if there is lot of speculation about crash coming, i might not have peaceful nights ahead.

 

A crash can make property prices in Munich sensible again.

 

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20 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

A crash can make property prices in Munich sensible again.

 

Yea, just after hell freezes over.

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I predict the prices will fall, and then rise, crash and rise in Munich and in the next 50 years, not necessarily in that order, and I’m willing to bet on it.

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1 hour ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

That is the question.

 

But how low do you think they can go?

 

European markets are down significantly this morning.

 

I managed to be invited into Trump’s private WhatsApp friends and family group and I’ll try to give  you a head’s up next time he’s about to tweet.

 

5% is not freefall. After the market crashes 30% and more it is time to start investing aggressively (i.e. rebalancing cash and bonds reserves into stock), until then I’m staying the course.

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On 11/14/2018, 1:57:39, fraufruit said:

I don't know about DB  -  not invested.

 

My guy thinks GE will touch $5. There are many opinions out there so it's impossible to say. If I were not already so heavily invested, I would def grab some shares at 5 bucks. I've already been buying it on the way down to decrease my unit cost but, in the end, that does me no good. Just have to hang on and see what happens.

 

I don't trade stocks or derivatives on individual stocks, so i didn't buy GE, but one of the boards i visit daily mentioned it around the time of your post.   It seemed like a decent entry.    As you know, it has been volatile. 

 

FWIW, the CEO, Culp bought $3 million last week on the dip.    I cannot find the article to verify it, but at his last employer, he had never made an insider purchase.  

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-13/ge-climbs-as-ceo-signals-faith-with-3-million-share-purchase

 

No position for me, but it should be interesting to watch. 

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Sometimes the CEO buying some shares can be a sign of desperation and a tactic to get others to invest. 3 mil is peanuts to him after all. I hope I'm wrong. GE is sentimental to me for certain reasons and that is one of the worst reasons to hang on/keep buying a stock.

 

Individual stocks are just a part of my portfolio. Diversity rules.

 

Let's see what happens next week.

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Oh dear...this from mainstream CNBC:

 

Quote

GE falls the most in 11 years after Madoff whistleblower calls it a ‘bigger fraud than Enron’

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/15/ge-shares-drop-after-madoff-whistleblower-harry-markopolos-raises-red-flags-on-its-accounting.html

 

Quote
  • General Electric shares fall after Madoff whistleblower Harry Markopolos targets the conglomerate in a new report, calling it “a bigger fraud than Enron.”
  • The 175-page report claims GE was hiding the depths of its financial problems and would need to significantly raise its insurance reserves. It also points out alleged accounting issues with its oil and gas unit.
  • “My team has spent the past 7 months analyzing GE’s accounting and we believe the $38 Billion in fraud we’ve come across is merely the tip of the iceberg,” Markopolos says in the report.
  • Markopolos says he has given the report to securities regulators and that certain information he has uncovered was given to law enforcement only, and is not in the public report.

 

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6 hours ago, jeremytwo said:

Oh dear...this from mainstream CNBC:

 

 

That is the question - do the Markopolos allegations have a substantial basis or not?   In my opinion, these are the kinds of news stories that mark a low in the indexes.   

 

 For people who only look at charts,  ;)  GE is currently interesting.  When FF expressed buying interest earlier, the chart looked interesting too.    These remarks are not a recommendation to do anything. 

 

Let's see.  

 

 

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Little off-topic, but does anyone know about  https://fx-tradingmarket.com/ ?

I was contacted by one of there executives from Swiss who asked me to open an account with them and the early access to purchase Libra at a discount on the pre-sale .

He gave examples about bit-coin, but I am not sure why it makes sense investing in Libra if it is supposed to be a stable coin.

If it will really be a stable coin, then it will be the worst investment, as it does not pay any interest.

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2 hours ago, CryptoAndBeyond said:

I was contacted by one of there executives from Swiss who asked me to open an account with them

 

Call me paranoid, but when I hear of financial services cold calling I get nervous.

 

And if I search online I can find almost nothing.  This is the only info I found: https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/forex-reviews/16410/fx-tradingmarket-forex-brokers

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I'm with Zwiebel on this. Run fast and far. 

 

I do money transfers with Forex UK but that is only one part of their business. This sounds fishy.

 

Just my gut feeling.

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On 19/08/2019, 12:54:13, CryptoAndBeyond said:

If it will really be a stable coin, then it will be the worst investment, as it does not pay any interest.

 

In theory its a modern equivalent to gold, a safe haven in times of risk.  Problem is that new and untested, run by a silicon valley company, backed by an as yet undefined basket of other commodities or currencies and stable dont strike me as all going together very well.

 

In terms of investment, I just dont see it.  Its more like a virtual currency that can be used for facebook payments and maybe (maybe) replace the dollar or euro as a core unit for international pricing.

 

My guess is that it shunts up and down, there is a lot of arbitrage and eventually the backing with "real money" is dropped. Or the whole thing fails first.

 

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Dear @PandaMunich, I could really use your sage advice. I am an American living in Germany for the foreseeable future and I would like to start investing. However, it seems that due to the restrictions of both countries, I am fenced in from all sides. From what I understand, investing in either country generally counts as a PFIC from the perspective of the other, and not even any ETFs are cross-listed as approved by both countries, let alone anything more exotic like REITs or new ESG products.

 

I have even consulted a (very expensive) German accountant who supposedly specializes in international tax laws and who was recommended by one of the other heavy hitters here. Unfortunately, this individual wasn't even familiar with the 2018 German tax law changes and told me all investments are taxed only upon sale, plus that it doesn't matter in which country US citizens have investment accounts. I know that this is patently wrong. I also spoke to someone at a financial management firm in the US that caters to expats and he generously advised me to do an 80/20 allocation between the Vanguard All World ETF and a Charles Schwab bond ETF as they meet the EU requirements, after informing me that to work with them requires >$500k assets under management. (Obviously, I do not qualify.) However, a few weeks after that, I received an email from the company that Charles Schwab, which was apparently the only brokerage that would still give Americans abroad an account, has now aligned with other banks that Americans abroad are not eligible to buy US ETFs under the 2018 EU MiFID II regulations. Naturally, many German/EU banks won't give Americans an account either due to FACTA.

 

I have additionally spent endless hours scouring tax laws and attempting to read them in full in both English and German (I have a STEM PhD so I'm used to complicated material). I have investigated this from every angle I can think of and I still can't figure out what I can actually do. If even the professionals are generally of no help, how is anyone supposed to reasonably manage this? I have no interest in living in Trumpland, but it seems my financial future is basically being held hostage because of it (or, I guess Germany has some blame too, since buying a home here doesn't make sense unless you never move ever again). I am at my wit's end with this, and just want to be able to plan for my future as any normal young person. The best I can come up with so far is to give all my investing money to my German husband, so he can do all of this without interference from the US side, but it would be strange to me to not have actual control over my own money. Or do I use an address in the US and hope they don't notice/care? Then there's the issue that if I die before my husband, there is only a $60k tax exemption to pass any US-situ asset such as investments in a US account to a non-resident, non-US citizen spouse, with anything above that taxed at 40%. (After reading tax laws, it seems that this limit was raised to $1 mil in 2006, but that it phases out after 10 years of residence abroad? I've already been here for 4 and I figure I'd kick the bucket after that.) I guess I could give him any bonds and cash (non-US situ assets) and our dual citizen infant daughter my investments/money market cash. Sigh. I have too much other stuff to do to spend more months on this.

 

Many, many thanks in advance.

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On 8/21/2019, 2:04:59, elizabias said:

Dear @PandaMunich, I could really use your sage advice. I am an American living in Germany for the foreseeable future and I would like to start investing. However, it seems that due to the restrictions of both countries, I am fenced in from all sides. From what I understand, investing in either country generally counts as a PFIC from the perspective of the other, and not even any ETFs are cross-listed as approved by both countries, let alone anything more exotic like REITs or new ESG products.

 

I have even consulted a (very expensive) German accountant who supposedly specializes in international tax laws and who was recommended by one of the other heavy hitters here. Unfortunately, this individual wasn't even familiar with the 2018 German tax law changes and told me all investments are taxed only upon sale, plus that it doesn't matter in which country US citizens have investment accounts. I know that this is patently wrong. I also spoke to someone at a financial management firm in the US that caters to expats and he generously advised me to do an 80/20 allocation between the Vanguard All World ETF and a Charles Schwab bond ETF as they meet the EU requirements, after informing me that to work with them requires >$500k assets under management. (Obviously, I do not qualify.) However, a few weeks after that, I received an email from the company that Charles Schwab, which was apparently the only brokerage that would still give Americans abroad an account, has now aligned with other banks that Americans abroad are not eligible to buy US ETFs under the 2018 EU MiFID II regulations. Naturally, many German/EU banks won't give Americans an account either due to FACTA.

 

I have additionally spent endless hours scouring tax laws and attempting to read them in full in both English and German (I have a STEM PhD so I'm used to complicated material). I have investigated this from every angle I can think of and I still can't figure out what I can actually do. If even the professionals are generally of no help, how is anyone supposed to reasonably manage this? I have no interest in living in Trumpland, but it seems my financial future is basically being held hostage because of it (or, I guess Germany has some blame too, since buying a home here doesn't make sense unless you never move ever again). I am at my wit's end with this, and just want to be able to plan for my future as any normal young person. The best I can come up with so far is to give all my investing money to my German husband, so he can do all of this without interference from the US side, but it would be strange to me to not have actual control over my own money. Or do I use an address in the US and hope they don't notice/care? Then there's the issue that if I die before my husband, there is only a $60k tax exemption to pass any US-situ asset such as investments in a US account to a non-resident, non-US citizen spouse, with anything above that taxed at 40%. (After reading tax laws, it seems that this limit was raised to $1 mil in 2006, but that it phases out after 10 years of residence abroad? I've already been here for 4 and I figure I'd kick the bucket after that.) I guess I could give him any bonds and cash (non-US situ assets) and our dual citizen infant daughter my investments/money market cash. Sigh. I have too much other stuff to do to spend more months on this.

 

Many, many thanks in advance.

 

I would like to help, but have not been able to distill these paragraphs into concrete questions. 

 

There are a couple of other threads that recommend Interactive Brokers, which is the platform I use to trade.    IB asked me about my residency and in which tax jurisdictions my trade information needed to be reported.   

 

As far as I know, Americans pay taxes on their gains in the US, but the gains are considered when determining aggregate income in Germany, i.e. if you earn $X0000 from trading, it may bump you into a higher tax bracket. 

 

Hope that helps. 

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Thanks @balticus, I will check them out. Sorry my question was confusing. I guess the main point is: with all the new regulations, have Americans abroad found any asset classes (besides perhaps single stocks) that they can actually access without creating gigantic tax problems for themselves in either country? How do other Americans here plan for their financial future?

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On 8/23/2019, 10:12:42, balticus said:

There are a couple of other threads that recommend Interactive Brokers

Unfortunately, the 2018 EU MiFID II regulations trading restrictions apply according to your country of residence and not according to citizenship (AFAIK US ETFs, in contrast to ETNs, arent´t subject to them though). To get around them you´d need to apply for being regarded a finance professional which comes with hurdles like e. g. a minimum of € 500000 of portfolio value. And even that will not resolve all problems regarding what you can buy. Maybe after Brexit a UK based broker will no longer have to apply them. Some US financial institutions are accepting non-US residents. AFAIK e. g. Morgan Stanley does.

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