Fiddling about with stocks, funds, etc. No conspiracy theories, please.

414 posts in this topic

12 hours ago, mtbiking said:

Fraufruit has a diversified portfolio, she didn’t get wealthy by investing in one or two shares and hoping for the best (feel free to correct me, fraufruit.)

 

Was not my assumption! But this interested me:

 

23 hours ago, fraufruit said:

I gambled a lot in my younger years. It was fun.

 

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Given the title of this forum, I'm highly interested in what "fiddling" can/should be done!

 

 

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Yes, diversity is key. What has helped my earnings grow the most is automatic dividend reinvestment on everything possible. I jokingly told my broker that I wanted to lived off of my dividends when I got old. Laughable at the time. It seems to be working because now that I'm withdrawing, my portfolio bottom line continues to grow or stay the same depending on the market. Of course, at times it dip down but keeps going back up.

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3 hours ago, dom said:

Given the title of this forum, I'm highly interested in what "fiddling" can/should be done!

 

 

 

It depends on what you think will make money in the future. Everyone is different.

 

I have an ETF which is based on companies which specialize in AI, robotics and autonomous driving. At the moment the companies make little money so the ETF is worth very little but in the future who knows. I don`t need the cash so I can wait. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

You should decide what will make money in the future and go with it.

 

3 hours ago, fraufruit said:

diversity is key

 

I'm hearing from you: mix diversity with a dash of high risk?

Sounds like the philosophy of 7:3 World:EM ETFs !!

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7 minutes ago, dom said:

 

 

I'm hearing from you: mix diversity with a dash of high risk?

Sounds like the philosophy of 7:3 World:EM ETFs !!

 

Stocks at the moment are difficult to predict because they are effectively linked to Trumps twitter account.

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6 hours ago, dom said:

I'm hearing from you: mix diversity with a dash of high risk?

Sounds like the philosophy of 7:3 World:EM ETFs !!

 

The thing is, it all depends. 

 

Is this to pay for your retirement (ie needs to be safe) or is it just a bit of funto hopefully make some cash but doesnt ruin you if it doesnt work out?

 

How actively are you expecting to manage your portfolio?  Buy once and look in every few years to see how its doing or check every day and make tweeks?

 

How old are you, how soon do you need to make a return?

 

What is the investment for?  Is this a kind of savings account you will call on when you need it?  Remember you are likely to lose your job when the markets are messed up so investments in areas similar to your career might mean there is no value in it just when you need it.  

 

Do you have any special rules (no tobacco, maybe no oil, mabye you dont want to invest in the us or you do or...).  Do you have a soft spot for any countries or industries?  Maybe you want to invest in small businesses in EM because you think thats helping pull people out of poverty.

 

Where are you paying tax on all this?  Germany presumably?  I know people that ended up paying tax in both switzerland and germany (not sure if it was avoidable, they claimed not).

 

What is your attitude to risk?

 

Do you understand the difference between value and growth (ie dividends)?  If you get dividends, what are you going to do? Reinvest, or live on the income?

 

6 hours ago, dom said:

7:3 World:EM ETFs

 

World:EM is a weird split because you probably have overlap.  Would make more sense to have a DM:EM split.

 

What do you mean by world, you mean world large cap (ie safe)? and EM small (ie much higher risk)?  

 

Do you have any other investments (a house?), or debts?  Paying off debt is often better than even quite a good investment.  Where is your pension invested? 

 

 

TL;DR there is no simple one size fits all answer.

 

6 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

Everyone is different.

 

Exactly.

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10 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Stocks at the moment are difficult to predict because they are effectively linked to Trumps twitter account.

Yeah, Trump and its trade war are the biggest variable in stock investment nowadays.

Although there is more money to make with higher fluctuations, this idiot is completely random, making our life miserable.

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12 hours ago, zwiebelfisch said:

The thing is, it all depends. 

 

Agreed! I guess my question here is: what can you discuss here that can be mutually useful for all, assuming all are investors?

 

For example, P2P seems to be a relatively new type of investment which has a return of 5-14%.

Would be interesting to know what experiences you all have of this...

 

This would be independent of the "life status" of each participant... for some interesting info; for others reason to get on board!

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11 hours ago, MikeMelga said:

Yeah, Trump and its trade war are the biggest variable in stock investment nowadays.

Although there is more money to make with higher fluctuations, this idiot is completely random, making our life miserable.

 

I'm very sure that he has a WhatsApp list of Family and Friends who he gives a heads up shortly in advance of tweeting. It's actually brilliant, if a CEO like Elon Musk tweets something that affects the market he'll run into problems, but Trump has been given no reason to believe he won't get away with it. the Republicans are such doormats that Trump may as well start screwing their women just for the fun of it.

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6 hours ago, dom said:

P2P seems to be a relatively new type of investment which has a return of 5-14%.

 

Thats true, but the same basics hold as for other investments. A 5% loan should, generally have a high probability of repaying. A bit like a bond, low return, low risk.

 A 15% loan has a higher return, but also a higher risk of default, like a tech stock for example.

 

Personally Ive only lent P2P on a not for profit basis (Kiva), whatever attitude people have of that platform I can say in my experience most people pay back but enough dont that much of your notional profit would get eaten (as I say, I dont take a profit, so for me its a few percent loss due to non payment).

 

FWIW having read about P2P, my impression is that over a longer period the returns tend to even out at no better than you would expect from equity.  Thats not to say it isnt a rewarding way to invest, just that (suprise suprise) its not a magic get rich quick plan.

 

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Right, as I said Ive been lending on a not for profit basis and looking (on and off) at the for profit options since way before I came to germany, so it must be over a decade since companies like mintos have been around.

 

I like the idea of supporting small business and I think small loans are in many ways far better than charity (better to help someone start a farm than to give him free food, make him dependant upon you and put his neighbour out of business). But as investments go the return doesnt seem in reality to be especially high nor the risks especially low.

 

If you think about P2P lending, what we are really talking about is privately funding the loans that the banks (ie professional money lenders) dont want to make.  Think about that.

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1 hour ago, zwiebelfisch said:

If you think about P2P lending, what we are really talking about is privately funding the loans that the banks (ie professional money lenders) dont want to make.  Think about that.

That's a fair point, but crowd sourcing in general cannot be seen entirely in this light. It's an alternative way of getting funded. Not necessarily considered after being knocked back by the banks.

 

3 minutes ago, CryptoAndBeyond said:

Have you invested in mintos?

No, but I am considering several options currently which is why I have been posting here recently.

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17 hours ago, zwiebelfisch said:

Personally Ive only lent P2P on a not for profit basis (Kiva), whatever attitude people have of that platform I can say in my experience most people pay back

 

I'm a big fan of Kiva, too! No profit but the giving just snowballs.

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So looks like the stock market is in free fall.

 

Does anyone have any tips during a "downturn", or do people just wait to see how low the stock market can go?

 

What would be a good investment strategy now?

 

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I will just be hanging in there until it goes back up again as usual. I keep enough cash to do that. That does mean that I won't be picking up many bargains, if any, because I need cash.

 

Same strategy applies as always, buy low, sell high.

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5 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

I will just be hanging in there until it goes back up again as usual. I keep enough cash to do that. That does mean that I won't be picking up many bargains, if any, because I need cash.

 

Same strategy applies as always, buy low, sell high.

 

That is the question.

 

But how low do you think they can go?

 

European markets are down significantly this morning.

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