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Trump declares Jerusalem as Israel's Capital

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2 hours ago, jeremytwo said:

 

Well I have to put the gossip I heard while pissed in secret British Aerospace bars in Saudi to some use...

 

"

So... you can spread the word about all this shit... but I cant mention your second house?... Nice!

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57 minutes ago, SpiderPig said:

So... you can spread the word about all this shit... but I cant mention your second house?... Nice!

Well actually, I only distribute intel on commonly known events in the Kingdom, never anything sensitive, to which I certainly used to get regular information about. Nothing high level ever, but just stuff on the grapevine via the military.

 

For example, when Navy ships sailed up the Gulf to drop off a pig for a barbecue behind compound walls, sometimes a famous BBC reporter was on the ship. This meant to us th might be militar action! Low level stuff like that. Never any serious stuff.

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5 hours ago, SA618 said:

Why do you think the Saudi ruling class would last more than about 15 minutes if they decide to become independent thinkers?    Mind boggling.

Yes, I think so. Taliban lasted more than 15 minutes, for example.

 

5 hours ago, SA618 said:

According to a special report i read in the Economist back around 2008, the so-called "Arab world" which encompasses some of north Africa as well as Arab countries in Asia,  has an aggregate GDP comparable to Spain's.   

You are correct: Saudi has more or less the same GDP as Spain. That is a fucking lot of money. Spain has a huge GDP and huge police/army forces, too.

5a457bea69e14_Bildschirmfotovom2017-12-2

 

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7 hours ago, yourkeau said:

Yes, I think so. Taliban lasted more than 15 minutes, for example.

 

Comparing royals with a group of guerrillas does not really work.   If you have been watching MBS's purge, it involves sequestering the targets in a five star hotel.   Not exactly a cave in Tora Bora.  

 

If you would be trading oil or the USD or something linked to those, i would make the assumption that extreme changes in the supply of petroleum or the status of the petrodollar will be not be decided independent of massive US influence, i.e. coercion.   

 

7 hours ago, yourkeau said:

 

You are correct: Saudi has more or less the same GDP as Spain. That is a fucking lot of money. Spain has a huge GDP and huge police/army forces, too.

5a457bea69e14_Bildschirmfotovom2017-12-2

 

 

Why would you omit a link and a header so that we can verify the source and the meaning of your statistics ?   Didn't you call for a truce amidst your whining about a win/lose attitude on this board rather than a orientation toward information exchange?

 

Here is a list of nominal GDP by country which shows very different figures.    You may note that the GDP of Israel is about half that of the KSA.    

 

I would argue that nominal GDP should be used because financially incenting people in other countries means that the purchasing power parity of the paid country is relevant.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)#Lists

 

While the wealth is very concentrated in KSA, the country is simply not as rich as people imagine.   

 

 

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54 minutes ago, SA618 said:

While the wealth is very concentrated in KSA, the country is simply not as rich as people imagine.   

 

 

 

Absolutely true SA. How rich you are depends on which branch of the faith you are. My best Saudi friends tended to be Shia, from H who used to come to me regularly and chat about Islam for ages to A who had 15 children and lived in Qatif (the scene of some brutal recent crackdowns) - he worked on our University research boats (all falling slightly to bits!). I did also have Sunni friends, particularly one who took me partying in Bahrain several times. His brother owned the biggest shopping mall in the area!

 

When you go shopping you will pass women beggars outside the supermarket. Now that is something you never hear of in the media.

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3 hours ago, SA618 said:

Why would you omit a link and a header so that we can verify the source and the meaning of your statistics ?   Didn't you call for a truce amidst your whining about a win/lose attitude on this board rather than a orientation toward information exchange?

2

I dunno. Maybe I just photoshopped this screenshot, right?

 

3 hours ago, SA618 said:

While the wealth is very concentrated in KSA, the country is simply not as rich as people imagine.   

Actually, you do not need to be rich to be a military danger. DDR, Soviet Union were not rich. North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world, where a significant part of the population is in the military.

 

But when you are rich it fucking helps. Wealth distribution in KSA is not really relevant in this matter.

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16 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

I dunno. Maybe I just photoshopped this screenshot, right?

 

I am trying to understand your arguments and statistics and give you a chance to explain why your stats are so distorted.   If you have a point to make or a reason to use adjusted statistics, i would be open minded to hear the explanation. 

 

Quote

 

Actually, you do not need to be rich to be a military danger. DDR, Soviet Union were not rich. North Korea is one of the poorest countries in the world, where a significant part of the population is in the military.

 

But when you are rich it fucking helps. Wealth distribution in KSA is not really relevant in this matter.

 

Your argument seems to be morphing into a question of whether KSA is a military danger or not.  

 

Your original statements were:

 

On 12/27/2017, 4:38:15, yourkeau said:

It's all about money, die Geschäfte. The Arabian market is bigger than Israel, so nobody risks their economy to vote against Arab League.

 

On 12/27/2017, 8:44:02, yourkeau said:

Yes, it's all about money. Most supporters of Israel also have Geschäfte with Arabic world, so they all voted against Israel in the UN.

 

Concentration of wealth matters when exporting Mercedes or other luxury products.    It won't help VW as much.   The concentration of wealth allows a few people to use their money to lobby and buy influence.    If the distribution would be more equal, the politics would be different. 

 

My rebuttal to your arguments is :   Saudi Arabia is not THAT rich.    It has twice the GDP of  

 

With respect to being a military danger, wouldn't you think that when the US sells weapons systems, e.g. missiles, fighter planes, etc to other countries, there is some sort of "kill switch" which will prevent them from being used against US interests?    In contrast, Russia and (as far as we know) North Korea did not buy their weapons from the US.     If you remember the Falklands War, the Argentinians were a bit irritated that the French provided the British with some codes to the Exocet missiles which the French had sold to the Argentinians.   I wonder if the Argentinians asked for their money back.   ;) 

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9 minutes ago, SA618 said:

I am trying to understand your arguments and statistics and give you a chance to explain why your stats are so distorted.   If you have a point to make or a reason to use adjusted statistics, i would be open minded to hear the explanation. 

Ah, come on. You understand both the meaning of my statistics and where it comes from. You even argued that nominal GDP is better, have you forgotten this?

 

12 minutes ago, SA618 said:

Your argument seems to be morphing into a question of whether KSA is a military danger or not.  

 

Your original statements were:

These statements are valid.

 

You wrote about these "15 minutes" which I interpreted as economic sanctions. I argued that Saudi will remain a danger anyway.

 

15 minutes ago, SA618 said:

If the distribution would be more equal, the politics would be different.

As we say: If a grandmother had balls she would have been a grandfather. 

 

17 minutes ago, SA618 said:

wouldn't you think that when the US sells weapons systems, e.g. missiles, fighter planes, etc to other countries, there is some sort of "kill switch" which will prevent them from being used against US interests?

Like Android device manager? LOL.

 

20 minutes ago, SA618 said:

If you remember the Falklands War, the Argentinians were a bit irritated that the French provided the British with some codes to the Exocet missiles which the French had sold to the Argentinians.

Missiles are devices which indeed can have "Android device manager".

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1 hour ago, yourkeau said:

Ah, come on. You understand both the meaning of my statistics and where it comes from. You even argued that nominal GDP is better, have you forgotten this?

 

So you tried to fake an argument to look smart.   

 

1 hour ago, yourkeau said:

You wrote about these "15 minutes" which I interpreted as economic sanctions. I argued that Saudi will remain a danger anyway.

 

Economic and otherwise.   MBS will end up in that five star hotel in a few years if he gets to carried away.    Think Saddam Hussein and Moammar Quadafi though the royal family in KSA do not seem particularly loyal to one another and can be counted on to turn against each other.    It is not that an invasion would happen, but rather that it probably would not be so difficult to favor a different faction.  

 

1 hour ago, yourkeau said:

As we say: If a grandmother had balls she would have been a grandfather. 

 

Except that the concentration of wealth in places like Russia and Saudi Arabia are what allows individuals to have worldwide influence.    The stereotype of the Spanish, South Korean, or Australian oligarch financing lobbyists does not resonate in the same way because the countries are not structured that way.    These are more than just trivial differences.

 

1 hour ago, yourkeau said:

Like Android device manager? LOL.

 

You ridicule my claims, but like your grandmother, you don't have the balls to make an argument to the contrary and attempt to defend it because you can't.  

 

Do you think that there are no microchips in complex weapons systems other than missiles which could use a kill switch?     LOL indeed.   

 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, SA618 said:

So you tried to fake an argument to look smart.   

Jesus Maria

 

23 minutes ago, SA618 said:

Think Saddam Hussein and Moammar Quadafi though the royal family in KSA do not seem particularly loyal to one another and can be counted on to turn against each other.

These times are gone. Ghaddafi was the last ousted dictator. The US didn't do it with Assad until it was too late (=Russia jumped in).

 

But even if the willing to start a war is so big now as it was back then, I do not believe it can happen anyway. Too much at risk (global oil price), and the US cannot afford that Saudi allies with its natural enemy, Iran (another factor to consider).

 

23 minutes ago, SA618 said:

Except that the concentration of wealth in places like Russia and Saudi Arabia are what allows individuals to have worldwide influence.    The stereotype of the Spanish, South Korean, or Australian oligarch financing lobbyists does not resonate in the same way because the countries are not structured that way.    These are more than just trivial differences.

Thank you, Captain Obvious, but I still do not get your point. I thought it's common knowledge that rich European countries like Norway or Switzerland prefer to spend money on own people and own infrastructure rather than play "geopolitics". What is it to discuss here? That is true.

 

23 minutes ago, SA618 said:

You ridicule my claims, but like your grandmother, you don't have the balls to make an argument to the contrary and attempt to defend it because you can't.  

Gott

 

23 minutes ago, SA618 said:

Do you think that there are no microchips in complex weapons systems other than missiles which could use a kill switch?     LOL indeed.   

Do you think nobody tries to reverse engineer those chips to find out it? Your argument "Russia does not buy it because kill switch" is really LOL: Russians will reverse engineer it, and they are capable of producing multiple copies of this weapon after reverse engineering. 

Do you think they wouldn't have been a huge scandal if something like this is discovered?

 

Like we say, "for every smart ass there is a penis with a screw".

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16 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

Jesus Maria

 

Shiva H Vishnu Havenstein Mogilevich

 

16 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

These times are gone. Ghaddafi was the last ousted dictator. The US didn't do it with Assad until it was too late (=Russia jumped in).

 

The US and the UK sold weapons to Ghaddafi and Saddam Hussein, but never to Assad.    

 

16 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

But even if the willing to start a war is so big now as it was back then, I do not believe it can happen anyway. Too much at risk (global oil price), and the US cannot afford that Saudi allies with its natural enemy, Iran (another factor to consider).

 

Sorry - have you been reading what has happened in KSA in the past two months?    The richest person in KSA, who is incredibly well connected worldwide is still sitting in that five star hotel in Riyadh and apparently MBS is asking for $6 billion to release him.   Price of oil may be slightly trending, but it has not spiked.   

 

North Korea and South Korea becoming allies in the next 12 months is more likely than Saudi Arabia and Iran becoming allies.    Would you have a reason to believe that it would ever happen or evidence of high level talks or diplomatic gestures?

 

16 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

Thank you, Captain Obvious, but I still do not get your point. I thought it's common knowledge that rich European countries like Norway or Switzerland prefer to spend money on own people and own infrastructure rather than play "geopolitics". What is it to discuss here? That is true.

 

Oligarchs tend to lobby for themselves.    In countries where the wealth is spread more evenly, lobbying can be done by the government.     Thus, the aggregate GDP does not explain everything.  

16 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

Do you think nobody tries to reverse engineer those chips to find out it?

 

Sure.   Do you think that the people selling weapons haven't thought of that and put in precautions?

 

16 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

Your argument "Russia does not buy it because kill switch" is really LOL: Russians will reverse engineer it, and they are capable of producing multiple copies of this weapon after reverse engineering.

 

The US would not sell weapons to Russia.   The two countries are strategic rivals bordering on enemies.   Your ridiculing a hypothetical situation which i did not propose. 

 

Russia has nukes.   I am not convinced that Russia is conventionally so strong.  

 

16 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

Do you think they wouldn't have been a huge scandal if something like this is discovered?

 

If you have ignored the reference to the Exocet missiles sold to Argentina by France then you can continue to believe that it has never happened.  

 

It would seem that people buying weapons know the game.   I would guess that the weapons Russia sells to Syria or Turkey have a kill switch mechanism also.   

 

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1 hour ago, SA618 said:

Sorry - have you been reading what has happened in KSA in the past two months?

Yep. Nothing interesting, typical fight for power in an authoritarian country/absolute monarchy.

 

Quote

MBS

As a member of AAAAAA (Australian American Association Against Acronym and Abbreviation Abuse), I strongly oppose to labeling people with abbreviations.  Sure, you are not running out of paper to type "Mohammed bin Salman".

 

1 hour ago, SA618 said:

Price of oil may be slightly trending, but it has not spiked.   

Why should it?

 

1 hour ago, SA618 said:

North Korea and South Korea becoming allies in the next 12 months is more likely than Saudi Arabia and Iran becoming allies.    Would you have a reason to believe that it would ever happen or evidence of high level talks or diplomatic gestures?

But you claim Saudi and Israel go to bed together. How come Iran deal is not possible? If there is a common enemy, any alliances are possible.

 

1 hour ago, SA618 said:

Sure.   Do you think that the people selling weapons haven't thought of that and put in precautions?

Sure they did. But it's easier to break something than to create it, so the ability of these precautions is limited. Saudis cannot reverse engineer themselves, maybe, but they can secretly pay money to those who can. They can hire the best engineers and developers. That's why I do not believe in this killer switch theory.

 

Rather: when you buy US weapons, you are dependent on the supply of parts to these weapons. This is the "killer switch": when a million dollar toy is broken and can't be repaired because the supplier does not give replacement parts anymore, that is a big problem...

 

1 hour ago, SA618 said:

Russia has nukes.   I am not convinced that Russia is conventionally so strong.  

It has nukes and an unlimited supply of unemployed workforce willing to die for nothing. That is its strength.

 

1 hour ago, SA618 said:

If you have ignored the reference to the Exocet missiles sold to Argentina by France then you can continue to believe that it has never happened.  

Yes, it happened. It does not prove anything. Just like because Bayer AG produced a medication which harmed children is not a proof it produces it in present time.

 

Quote

I would guess that the weapons Russia sells to Syria or Turkey have a kill switch mechanism also.   

Most wars Russia does is made with Russia/Soviet produced weapons on both sides. 

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58 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

But you claim Saudi and Israel go to bed together. How come Iran deal is not possible? If there is a common enemy, any alliances are possible.

 

Who is the common enemy ?   

 

Quote

Sure they did. But it's easier to break something than to create it, so the ability of these precautions is limited. Saudis cannot reverse engineer themselves, maybe, but they can secretly pay money to those who can. They can hire the best engineers and developers. That's why I do not believe in this killer switch theory.

 

If any country could reverse engineer the most advanced microchips, companies like Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcomm, Nvidia, etc would not have billions in revenue.   It is really not so simple. 

 

 

Quote

Rather: when you buy US weapons, you are dependent on the supply of parts to these weapons.

 

That is also true, but there are "kill switches".   

 

Quote

It has nukes and an unlimited supply of unemployed workforce willing to die for nothing. That is its strength.

 

War is high tech.   Trench warfare is long gone. 

 

Quote

Yes, it happened. It does not prove anything. Just like because Bayer AG produced a medication which harmed children is not a proof it produces it in present time.

 

It is a concrete example of weapons being disabled when used against targets not approved by the vendor.   Bayer AG has nothing to do with this. 

 

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2 minutes ago, SA618 said:

Who is the common enemy ?   

At the moment the US and Saudi are allies. I spoke about a hypothetic situation when they become enemies. Then the US will be the common enemy of Iran and Saudi. They will ally.

 

4 minutes ago, SA618 said:

If any country could reverse engineer the most advanced microchips, companies like Intel, Qualcomm, Broadcomm, Nvidia, etc would not have billions in revenue.   It is really not so simple. 

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So, I see from this message you have never increased processor clock in your childhood, have you? It's not that difficult. And no, this knowledge doesn't help to produce these chips.

 

7 minutes ago, SA618 said:

War is high tech.   Trench warfare is long gone. 

Ah. Not at all.

 

8 minutes ago, SA618 said:

It is a concrete example of weapons being disabled when used against targets not approved by the vendor.   Bayer AG has nothing to do with this. 

Okay, okay. You have one example that this happened. I have thousands of example when this didn't. :P

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35 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

At the moment the US and Saudi are allies. I spoke about a hypothetic situation when they become enemies. Then the US will be the common enemy of Iran and Saudi. They will ally.

 

The probability that both countries are lead by coalitions which would develop this type of policy toward the US is almost zero. 

 

35 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

So, I see from this message you have never increased processor clock in your childhood, have you? It's not that difficult. And no, this knowledge doesn't help to produce these chips.

 

No comment. ;)  Irrelevant.   

 

35 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

Okay, okay. You have one example that this happened. I have thousands of example when this didn't. :P

 

Thousands - please provide three.    Also, let me know why it is clear that the buyer of weapons was trying to further interests in opposition to the seller of weapons. 

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3 minutes ago, SA618 said:

Thousands - please provide three.

You don't pay me salary, so it's up to me to decide, how many examples to provide.

 

3 minutes ago, SA618 said:

Also, let me know why it is clear that the buyer of weapons was trying to further interests in opposition to the seller of weapons. 

Just because it didn't happen is not proof of any "killer switch". But I see you are solid in your beliefs. Let it be.

 

You are right, you won.

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15 hours ago, yourkeau said:

You don't pay me salary, so it's up to me to decide, how many examples to provide.

 

 

If you are interesting in supporting your argument with evidence and examples, please do engage.    

 

If you are unable or unwilling to offer evidence despite having thousands of examples, well, i simply have no response to that.  

 

 

Quote

Just because it didn't happen is not proof of any "killer switch". But I see you are solid in your beliefs. Let it be.

 

I am no insider in the weapons industry and doubt that you are either.   It would seem that "proof" is out of the question. 

 

Relatively solid in my beliefs is correct.   ;)   

 

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