Trump's Presidency: Is this the next domino to fall?

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1 hour ago, Krieg said:

Of course, you chose to insult me instead of debating my argument.

 

No insult was directed towards you.   I respect your intelligence but disagree with your points. 

 

German government and politicians act like a petulant, irresponsible teenager, not you.   Germans are  like teenagers living in a luxury house, with a car, food, healthcare, etc. that think because they make money on the side at a bar or cafe, they are  independent.  

 

Quote

OK, lets the numbers talk.

 

Germany's defense spending:

 

2014: 1,18%

2015: 1,18%

2016: 1,19%

2017: 1,23%

2018: 1,24%

2019: 1,36% (planned)

 

In 2018 Germany increased their defense budget from $45 billion to $50 billion.  But then the damn economy grew too much and made that increase look small in terms of GDP.  Damn economy not playing ball.

 

The 2% agreement (which is BS anyway) was done in 2014, so you couldn't expect big changes in 2015, it would be not realistic.  Since 2016 it has been steadily increasing, this is the numbers for the whole Europe:


2014: 1,47%

2015: 1,45%

2016: 1,46%

2017: 1,48% 

2018: 1,53%

2019: 1,58% (planned)

 

Source:  https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/pdf_2019_06/20190625_PR2019-069-EN.pdf

 

 

Expecting that a country make major changes in their budget from one day to another one is not reasonable if there is no imminent threat.   That's why they gave ten years to do it.  Why are they complaining then when we are not even yet half way in?

 

Here is a report from 2017.   

Only 4 of Germany's 128 Eurofighter jets combat ready

 

https://www.dw.com/en/only-4-of-germanys-128-eurofighter-jets-combat-ready-report/a-43611873

 

From what i have read, Germany would not be able to perform a rescue mission in the Mediterranean Sea as its ships and helicopters are not fit. 

 

Etc.   It is not only about money, but also preparedness.   The German military is in no position to respond to an unexpected threat.   

 

By the way, the SPD tried to LOWER the defense budget for next year.

 

What are future projections?

According to finance ministry projections, the defense budget will drop steadily to €44 billion by 2023, leaving the "NATO quota" at just 1.24% of GDP. Kramp-Karrenbauer said Germany had "committed itself" to meeting NATO requirements and urged defense spending to move back towards the 2% mark.

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-akk-urges-more-money-for-military/a-50390140

 

Germany can do as it likes, but in my opinion, it is not acting in its own best interest.   The US can slowly relocate bases and it can pull back from protecting the world's shipping lanes.     

 

Most people have missed four things:

 

1.   The US is energy independent and actually benefits in competitiveness if other countries do not have energy security.    The US won't  pump money into protecting oil shipments out of the middle east forever.   It is a different world than it was just 10 years ago.  

 

2.   The US has no incentive to give countries like Germany favorable trade arrangements which are a holdover from the Cold War, because the interests have changed.   

 

3.   The US can do well by simply trading with Mexico and Canada without a major change in standard of living.   It is the least dependent country on trade in the world.    Germany and China are the most dependent and have the most to lose when the US pulls back.   
 

4.   The US policy has little to do with Trump.   This was in the works for more than 20 years, but other foreign policy priorities have prevented a formal or informal recalibration of the Cold War structure. 

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51 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

This ^^

 

When a ship with German products goes from Hamburg to Shenzhen or Shanghai, who protects it?

 

When a ship with iron ore goes from Australia to Rotterdam, who protects it?

 

Is the world pirate free?   

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5 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

No insult was directed towards you.   I respect your intelligence but disagree with your points. 

 

So you disagree with the numbers coming directly from NATO?   

 

5 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

German government and politicians act like a petulant, irresponsible teenager, not you.   Germans are  like teenagers living in a luxury house, with a car, food, healthcare, etc. that think because they make money on the side at a bar or cafe, they are  independent. 

 

Ok, let's go one by one.  You claimed that Germany didn't increase their defense budget.   I posted the numbers directly from the NATO website.  So you are clearly WRONG.   So, there are two choices here.   You do not have a clue what you are talking about or you are intentionally lying.   I would appreciate a clean reply here, a simple one, no excuses, no BS.  It is either: I had no idea about the numbers or I was intentionally lying.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

When a ship with German products goes from Hamburg to Shenzhen or Shanghai, who protects it?

 

When a ship with iron ore goes from Australia to Rotterdam, who protects it?

 

Is the world pirate free?   

 

Nowadays most ships travel with armed forces inside the ship.  And there are nowadays plenty of private companies offering security services for them, for example Seagull Maritime Security is a big one and based in Malta, MUSC has being operating for like 40 years and it is based in the UK, MAST is based in the UK as well, etc.

 

What do you think?  There is a 911 emergency anti-piracy number and it is answered by the Amis?

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12 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

So you disagree with the numbers coming directly from NATO?   

 

 

Ok, let's go one by one.  You claimed that Germany didn't increase their defense budget.   I posted the numbers directly from the NATO website.  So you are clearly WRONG.   So, there are two choices here.   You do not have a clue what you are talking about or you are intentionally lying.   I would appreciate a clean reply here, a simple one, no excuses, no BS.  It is either: I had no idea about the numbers or I was intentionally lying.

 

According to finance ministry projections, the defense budget will drop steadily to €44 billion by 2023, leaving the "NATO quota" at just 1.24% of GDP. 

 

In terms of %of GDP, Germany is not increasing. 

 

In any case, the German military is totally unprepared for any threats and it is not moving toward the 2% target in any serious way.  4 or 128 jet fighters.   

 

In theory, NATO is a partnership.   In practice it is countries like Germany doing as little as possible and complaining that the US is not committed.   

 

I don't care, but there will be  a backlash coming that should be obvious to everyone.  

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4 minutes ago, balticus said:

In terms of %of GDP, Germany is not increasing. 

 

So, you insist that 1,38 is not bigger than 1,18.   I think my job here is finished.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

Nowadays most ships travel with armed forces inside the ship.  And there are nowadays plenty of private companies offering security services for them, for example Seagull Maritime Security is a big one and based in Malta, MUSC has being operating for like 40 years and it is based in the UK, MAST is based in the UK as well, etc.

 

What do you think?  There is a 911 emergency anti-piracy number and it is answered by the Amis?

 

This is old, but it gets the point across.

 

http://www.aei.org/publication/5-ways-the-us-navy-marine-corps-and-coast-guards-global-presence-matters-right-here-at-home/

 

The German Navy is not keeping the world's shipping lanes open.    

 

A few Security Guards are helpful, but if the Iranian Republican Guard blocks the Straits of Hormuz or China becomes aggressive in the Straits of Malaca or the South China Sea, it might take a bit more persuasion.  

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7 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

An article from a right wing think tank.   Not really a surprise here.   This is the same organization that some years ago was caught offering $10k to scientists willing to undermine climate change studies.

 

Anyway, the point is that you made it sound like it is the USA keeping the sea safe from pirates.  When it is mostly the private sector doing it, but of course with the support from the international community (not just the USA, but yes, they provide big help).

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2 hours ago, balticus said:

 

Germany is not increasing defense spending and is not prepared for basic military obligations.  

 

 

Here's a Tweet from Andrew Neil on the German military:

 

What very few understand about the military is that it is one thing to have an army, but that army needs training, and regular training at that. This is the strength of the US Army which is constantly training. 

 

38 minutes ago, balticus said:

1.   The US is energy independent and actually benefits in competitiveness if other countries do not have energy security.    The US won't  pump money into protecting oil shipments out of the middle east forever.   It is a different world than it was just 10 years ago.  

 

4.   The US policy has little to do with Trump.   This was in the works for more than 20 years, but other foreign policy priorities have prevented a formal or informal recalibration of the Cold War structure. 

 

Point 1 was just demonstrated a few days ago when the Saudi oilfields were attacked by as-yet unknown operators (it may have been launched by rogues inside Saudi) to attempt to crash the worlds economy by hiking oil prices. The oil flow is already 50% back online. 

 

Point 4 is moot. The US Army has been threatening to pull out of Germany for decades but has not done so. I think it's actually an empty threat because it gives them a strategic advantage for forward operations in the Gulf if ever needed. It would be more likely a scaling down and handing over to the Bundeswehr.

 

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15 minutes ago, balticus said:

A few Security Guards are helpful, but if the Iranian Republican Guard blocks the Straits of Hormuz or China becomes aggressive in the Straits of Malaca or the South China Sea, it might take a bit more persuasion.  

 

Relying on private contractors without legal oversight by government is back to the old days of privateering. Policing of danger spots such as the Red Sea off Somalia has to be undertaken by a sovereign nation, not an unofficial body.

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8 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

So, you insist that 1,38 is not bigger than 1,18.   I think my job here is finished.

 

2014: 1,18%

2015: 1,18%

2016: 1,19%

2017: 1,23%

2018: 1,24%

2019: 1,36% (planned)

...

2023 1,24% (planned)

 

We can do a simple calculation

 

The slope of the line is 

 

(1.36 - 1.18) / (2019 - 2014) = =  0.18 / 5  == 0.036

 

2.00 - 1.36 == 0.64

 

0.64 / 0.034 = 17.77

 

so in 17.77 years, at the current rates, which are distorted by an increase in increases in 2019 (planned), Germany should hit the 2% target. 

 

It seems unlikely that Germany is serious about meeting the target.  ;) 

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5 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

An article from a right wing think tank.   

Hardly outside of the mainstream.    I will try to find something in a left wing publication which acknowledges the role of the US Navy in protecting global commerce.   It might take a while.   :lol:

 

Pretty common opinion from Stratfor, Geopolitical Futures and others in that field as well.  

 

5 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

Anyway, the point is that you made it sound like it is the USA keeping the sea safe from pirates.  When it is mostly the private sector doing it, but of course with the support from the international community (not just the USA, but yes, they provide big help).

 

 Who is this international community?   Is it more than a token presence in places like the Persian Gulf?   Sure Australia and France sent help, but who is doing the heavy lifting?   

 

Is export champion Germany participating?   

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We haven't even agreed if 1,38 is bigger than 1,18 yet and you are bringing 2023 numbers from a non yet existing budget that will be made in 3 years, and we can't predict next trimester's economy performance and you already "planned" it.

 

I would take a risk here and say than 1,38 is bigger.  I know, I am risking a lot.

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1 hour ago, jeremytwo said:

What very few understand

There it is: the tell of the bullshit artist - see Trump, Donald J.* 

 

As always, j² is claiming to have some exclusive knowledge that is beyond the comprehension of us mere mortals. But j² has been redpilled and sees the big picture, because he watches YouTube with his third eye. Therefore, he knows and understands much more than all of us. *wanking motion*

 

5d820a190a185_2b12a05ec166647ef52452bfae

 

*The J stands for "Jenius"

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9 minutes ago, Krieg said:

We haven't even agreed if 1,38 is bigger than 1,18 yet and you are bringing 2023 numbers from a non yet existing budget that will be made in 3 years, and we can't predict next trimester's economy performance and you already "planned" it.

 

The source is Deutsche Welle.   Is that also a radical right wing publication?

 

Germany' preparedness and commitment to preparedness is not solid.   Would you agree? 

 

I should have written Germany is not increasing its military budget sufficiently to hit its 2% commitment, but we all knew what was meant.   The 2% target has been the hot button. 

 

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32 minutes ago, balticus said:

 Who is this international community?

 

The Combined Force 151 (CTF-151).   At least when talking about the results of Resolution 1816 to fight mostly the Somalians, which was like 99% of the whole piracy problem at the time it was created.    Then you have as well Operation Ocean Shield, Interpol Maritime, IMB, and maybe a few other associations involved but they probably mean the same countries.

 

Quote

 

 

   Is it more than a token presence in places like the Persian Gulf?   Sure Australia and France sent help, but who is doing the heavy lifting?   

 

Is export champion Germany participating?   

 

As the Resolution 1816 said long time ago, the military action is not enough to solve the problem, because it is impossible to patrol all the seas and react in time when an attack happens.   By the time any support comes the pirates would have brought the ship into local waters.   That's why the private security increased.   Resolution 1816 advocates for increasing the stability of the countries, in this case Somalia so that the country itself can take care of the problem, but at the same time allow that countries part of the Contact Group on Piracy can go into Somali waters chasing the pirates.   And actually things were getting better until 2017-2018 when attacks from Congo and Ivory Coast pirates increased.

 

Again, I am not saying USA is not helping, the problem was that you make it sound like USA was the only one working in solving the problem.

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Hmmm, where could that missing half-percent have gone to?

 

usaid.JPG.8e53a73482947fd127e12793a15379

 

germanyaid.JPG.59df937c2c6d91f3a64a0ebfc

 

All guns and no butter does not make the world a safer place. We need more development aid to solve the refugee crisis, unless you subscribe to Trump's suggested policy of shooting people at the border. Aw, who am I kidding. Of course you do.

 

 

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