Turkey referendum predictions

119 posts in this topic

4 hours ago, Metall said:

My Turkish relatives in Germany are *very subdued*. No idea where all the yes votes came from... but the first rumors have started.

The Turkish opposition already has released statements about unstamped ballots having been added, and wants to object to the vote. Oh boy.

 

Yes, 4 million votes in total, not just 1.5. The battle will go all way to ECHR perhaps, but the Election Committee will decide in 14 days. My expectation, some increase for the no block but majority block will not change. 

 

No need to be terribly frustrated (in a political sense of course, in an emotional sense, everyone will have their experience.) Our reality here is that political victories/defeats here have never been about things done very legally, properly, corrections when errors are discovered etc. There is a history that has violated rights/legality for everyone at some point - AKP voices this, too. 

 

Frustration means emotionally expecting something better from the people one is opposing and then getting disappointed. What's one's grounds for that expectation really? :)  

 

I'm not saying this to minimize or normalize it, no no no. But there isn't a single opponent of anything here - be it an Islamist fighting for their rights, left fighting for their rights, farmers, environmentalists, students, fascists - who builds a vision on a positive, fair outcome only. It may be here, sometimes it is strongly here, too but only expecting this is considered gullibility. What matters is what happens afterward. Sustaining the voice for fairness. Whoever sustains it will eventually win and we also have a history of bringing this fairness as well. 

 

I think it is a success that this was made transparent. Politics of legitimacy will now be made , appealing to everyone without defining ideological enemies. Everyone has a sense of fair and unfair. Legitimacy is more critical than 49 or 51. At the moment, CHP is discussing applying for a repeat of the referandum on grounds of "complete illegality." I personally (instinctively) think that it will be a strategic error but we will see. I feel more discussion and data in this would be necessary. 

 

CHP and the republic have made a serious mistake for decades in this country. They used law to oppress people as well. Did people go anywhere? No, they kept on boiling underneath.  In parliamentary politics, legality on its own, without consideration for people's voice, has never brought much success. I will take this to the constitutional court, I will take that to the constitutional court, obsessively and paranoidly building all politics on preventing AKP by chair numbers/majorities in the parliament. They considered stopping things temporarily with a difference of 2-3 chairs a victory. Then they, too, painfully learnt that the will of people does not change when you make politics like this. It makes things stronger - as experienced in the case of Turkish youth in Germany. I think that defiance is not bad in itself, even if it may choose the wrong way. The point is not to suppress it but to transform it. Germany attempted to suppress, people responded with their voice. Here, too, neither CHP nor AKP can say my way or the highway with these numbers. No  big victory or defeat for any one-sided thing, we all need to listen to each other, and reach a social and political consensus. There are very big lessons in this referandum for everyone.

 

CHP came up with a suppressive idea in the referandum process as well (suppression is their ideological reflex most of the time). Talking about taking the referandum process to the constitutional court. Democratic voices warned CHP leader not to do this. People want a constitutional change very clearly, don't stop it with the force of law, try to win people. When a big majority wants a change, you cannot stop that with miniscule numbers. Neither can you "suppress" anything by stopping things temporarily, even if it's your baddies that you are trying to stop. They will keep on boiling. CHP listened to this, ran a non-polarizing, inclusive campaign (most of the time)  and has managed to lead the biggest "no" voice in a long time. AKP was 53% on its own before, now they are 51, with MHP support. This is serious. What brings democratization for this country will be how parties will make use of these results in 2 years. AKP has already declared there will be no early elections. (But referandum for execution is on the agenda.) 

 

CHP said something correct today. Whatever the "win", 49-51 whatever, the public has said that there isn't consensus on this constitution. Half of the country does not agree with this system. It means this constitution draft needs to be revised during these two years perhaps. We will see the wind here. They too are aware that calling Erdoğan a dictator doesn't change anything, they have been doing it since 2012 earliest actually. People turn and say you haven't been better. (And they have a point.) Today, again, they said their problem is with the illegal aspect of this referandum, not a win or lose. If they prove their genuinity and consistence on this, they will sustain their new support base which also came from AKP voters in this referandum thing. 

 

What happens if we go to a referandum tomorrow, and AKP wins with a 55 percent? Will this discussion stop? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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On 16.4.2017, 18:18:10, yourkeau said:

 

Ignore quote please.

 

 

So basically, the Turks in the middle East, China and Russia have more common sense than the Turks in Western Europe.

Correction: the stats of Turks in UAE is 86% No.

 

Votes-foragainst-erdogan-per-country-pretty-interesting-.jpg

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The US: 

 

No votes: 

 

Boston 85 %
Houston  89 %
Miami  88 %
NY  78 %
Chicago 90 %
Washington 81% 

 

But when we look at how many people went and voted, stats are terribly low like 50 % in some places, going down to 27 in areas of 90% no. This mirrors the usual reflexes (or the laziness?) of the more educated Turkish middle-class voters who are called "chase-lounge democrats" sometimes because if there is an election around summer, they don't lift their arse to go and vote - but will say "oooh, this country has become so unliveable" during other times. The participation rate in Turkey was 86% this time, but this is so common. Everyone else is kind of hardworking though. 
 

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Erdogan has been putting university scholars, lawyers, high ranking military officers and scientists in jail as part of the "coup" repercussions. 

You need balls of steel to vote No within Turkey. I'd be afraid to have a target on my back.

Maybe the Turks abroad feel safer expressing their real views.

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Maybe the Turks in Turkey should worry about their democracy or lack of. If they want their little Napoleon, enjoy, babes.

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30 minutes ago, john g. said:

Maybe the Turks in Turkey should worry about their democracy or lack of. If they want their little Napoleon, enjoy, babes.

 

Thank you. We will do our best. 

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3 minutes ago, zeino said:

 

Thank you. We will do our best. 

I have the feeling you are feeling insulted as a Turkish citizen. That is NOT my wish or my point. I am actually worried about the state of humanity everywhere, zeino. And the state of democracy everywhere, zeino. 

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Just now, john g. said:

I have the feeling you are feeling insulted as a Turkish citizen. That is NOT my wish or my point. I am actually worried about the state of humanity everywhere, zeino. And the state of democracy everywhere, zeino. 

 

Your feeling is wrong. 

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1 hour ago, vmelchers said:

Maybe the Turks abroad feel safer expressing their real views.

 

So the turkish people here, are voting for a dictator while living a free life in Europe. :lol:

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1 hour ago, vmelchers said:

Maybe the Turks abroad feel safer expressing their real views.

Reminds me this:

132112_original.jpg.27937719765fe6f77011

 

P.S. The pig driving a tractor is a symbol for political refugee in former Soviet Union, there is no offence intended in it.

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13 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

Reminds me this:

132112_original.jpg.27937719765fe6f77011

 

P.S. The pig driving a tractor is a symbol for political refugee in former Soviet Union, there is no offence intended in it.

 

What's the connection here?

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Simple connection. Turks living in Germany have totally different motivation when voting for the dictator back home. For them it is a symbol of nostalgia. But would any of them really like to live under Erdogan? My answer is: no.

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That doesn't explain the difference between Turks in several countries in continental Western Europe and Turks elsewhere, including GB and other continental countries like Spain.  The explanation to me is that the Turks in Germany, Netherlands, etc, were using the vote as a way of giving the middle finger to the majority who they feel has never accepted them as Turks living in, well, Germany, Netherlands,etc.

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11 minutes ago, Eupathic Impulse said:

The explanation to me is that the Turks in Germany, Netherlands, etc, were using the vote as a way of giving the middle finger to the majority who they feel has never accepted them as Turks living in, well, Germany, Netherlands,etc

Ah, so Turks in Russia or UAE are more accepted than in evil Europe. Didn't know that.

 

I think explanation is pretty simple:

1. First, what I posted: nostalgic people who have never been to the country for many years, but want to support a „tough“ leader.

2. Second, much more people from the villages among immigrants in Europe (I have no statistics to back this up, so just a speculation).

 

There is also third explanation: voting in Europe was more easy than in Russia/Middle East. I have strong doubts that in Russia you could vote anywhere but in Moscow embassy, so if you are a Turk and not in Moscow, you could not vote. While here in Germany you could vote almost everywhere. Just more were able to vote.

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42 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

Ah, so Turks in Russia or UAE are more accepted than in evil Europe. Didn't know that.

 

I think explanation is pretty simple:

1. First, what I posted: nostalgic people who have never been to the country for many years, but want to support a „tough“ leader.

2. Second, much more people from the villages among immigrants in Europe (I have no statistics to back this up, so just a speculation).

 

There's a natural factor of class.  Turks in some countries in Western Europe tend to be the children of Gastarbeiter with roots in Anatolia, whereas Turks elsewhere may come from other social classes.  They will share some characteristics and hence voting patters with people from Anatolia. 

 

But that's only a description, not an explanation of the phenomenon.  A Turkish population with that characteristic has been in Germany for a couple of generations now.  Most of them, as you see, couldn't or didn't vote.  For the remainder: where did the desire for nostalgia come from, if it was nostalgia?  What was there to be nostalgic for?

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On 14.04.2017 13:58:30, Eupathic Impulse said:

I get the whole feeling in the European discussion on the Turkish election that that is just the same thing writ large on the level of nations.  Many Turks perhaps think that they'll never stop having to justify themselves in front of Europeans, and Europe will never reciprocate (by, e.g., giving Turks free movement, etc). 

 

Many Turks actually feel that it may be Europe that needs to justify itself in front of itself one day, Eupathic Impulse. Not according to our values, according to what is sometimes termed European political values. If Europe really thinks Erdoğan is a dictator for instance, it is Europe that needs to sit down and think how this "accident" has happened. At this stage of civilization, the world has enough stories of these allies that have become "bad". I don't think along these lines. But it's neither me nor the Turks who have eroded the content of the word "dictator" so much. It has become so empty internationally that it doesn't mean much when it comes from abroad now. That is sad.  A journalist here has recently written about Paul Virilio, how he think where there is human there is no accident but an act of "sacrifice", which reveals the moral essence of this act. So for some Turks, there hasn't been anything to justify to Europe for some time now. We are not full of anger or hate or anything. Neither do we expect much though. I have nothing to justify to interest politics anywhere, I'm not interested in how the world right justifies itself to whomever is interested. (I personally am not). This is not about Europeans etc etc. It is about a political Europe. We are grateful to good political values and intellectual depth from anywhere on this planet and  Europe led this for a time and we learnt a lot. A lot. It was and is inspirational and beautiful. However, I personally would not like my country to be in a Union that is full of Orbans, Le Pens, Wilderses and the like and will continue to criticize the middle-class that has an obsession with free-travel sometimes and forces politicians to achieve this in a way. Turning our face to the west, yes, but that is not necessarily the EU. Our neighbours elsewhere are not exactly heartwarming but ultimately, it is our duty to fill the ideological void. 

 

On a personal basis. I quite enjoy my values as well. If I believed this was a dictatorship, like if I thought this was happening somewhere, I would not be joking about the situation, finding anything hilarious about it on day 1 but some people of the civilized, democratic world are doing that, too. Something would prevent me. This is because a dictatorship means a darkness, a painful darkness and I wouldn't be able to bring myself to laughter so quickly. I'm determined to keep my democratic perspective about it in this carnival of a world. 

 

I theorize this in some way, but many Turks find an expression of similar perspectives in Erdoğan in a different way. And people who don't support Erdoğan also feel these in some way even though they believe Turkey should not break from Europe - but then conservative capital wants that, too. It is a bit because this 53 year old EU journey has been understood as a politics of carrots and sticks instead of a genuinely democratizing process, a bit about the general understanding here that if the west calls someone a dictator you are under a threat but that in itself will probably not result in something very democratic - people look at the state of Iraq and all that- a bit because Turkey has really started following a different international strategy that has made it a more active actor in the Middle East and some perceive it as power. Lack of conceptual unity about terror plays a very very very big role - not just the latest FETO thing but PKK as well. The military coup attempt and Europe's protection of scandalous people that we all want to see here is another factor. (Zekeriya Öz for instance.)  And there is this issue like Turkey was criticized for its lack of human rights for a long time but when people here look at how the European right treats Muslims, refugees etc etc, people think "so, these human rights are more or less bollocks when it doesn't suit Europe or makes Europe uncomfortable." That makes Turkish people not having to justify anything anymore. Maybe they even see similarities because Europe has started treating some populations exactly the way that was criticized here some time ago. Criticism seems to have lost legitimacy in people's eyes. I'm not saying these are right or wrong but this is how people feel. 

 

Turkish people living in Europe is another story. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Eupathic Impulse said:

 

There's a natural factor of class.  Turks in some countries in Western Europe tend to be the children of Gastarbeiter with roots in Anatolia, whereas Turks elsewhere may come from other social classes.  They will share some characteristics and hence voting patters with people from Anatolia. 

 

But that's only a description, not an explanation of the phenomenon.  A Turkish population with that characteristic has been in Germany for a couple of generations now.  Most of them, as you see, couldn't or didn't vote.  For the remainder: where did the desire for nostalgia come from, if it was nostalgia?  What was there to be nostalgic for?

 

It is the youngest generation I think that is the most frustrated in some senses. Their mother tongue is German, they have seen Turkey a couple of times in their lives, cannot speak much Turkish in some instances. What caused this generation to be like this? Is it only Turkishness really? A feeling of non-belonging does not come from being Turkish only I think. They are culturally excluded in Turkey, too. Nobody seems to accept that youth. 

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zeino, German journalist of die Welt is in prison, and he is charged with something ridiculous  like „planning a terrorist attack“. The editor of Cumcuriet is in Germany because in Turkey he is also charged with some bullshit.

 

This fact alone determines what Germans think about Erdogan. We may have zero knowledge about Turkey and its system, but these facts for us are enough to call a dictator a dictator. The term is not eroded. We just do not put journalists in jail in Europe, because they are the „fourth power“. In Germany journalists have power, last time they were somehow persecuted was in 1962, and the result of it was that the defense minister had to leave the government. He didn't say that Adenauer also knew about it, that's why the Chancellor kept his office.

 

 

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On the other hand: this bullshit from liberal politicians I can't hear any more: „This is the read line. If E. introduces death penalty, we will stop negotiations about EU membership.“

 

Do you really think the Turkish people are idiots? There will be no EU membership, everyone understands this. Stop lying, because your lies elected Erdogan in the first place! Give Turkey real place in Europe!

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