Turkey referendum predictions

119 posts in this topic

18 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

 

@Erdmann shows his real political face. Supports a radical Muslim despite pretending to hate radical Muslims. Because he is tough.

 

Halts Maul please, if you don't get a joke. :)

Having a laugh smiley doesn't show my support for Erdogan. Have a nice day.

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4 hours ago, yourkeau said:

Predictions? Like, which option will win: „yes“ or „yes, of course“?

So, „yes“ won. What a surprise! Was really unpredictable, I thought “yes, of course” would win.

 

1 hour ago, Erdmann said:

 

Halts Maul please, if you don't get a joke. :)

Having a laugh smiley doesn't show my support for Erdogan. Have a nice day.

In this age you cannot distinguish sarcasm and real people's thoughts. I am actually glad it was a joke and apologize with pleasure.

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So, with around 99% of boxes open, results are 51.23 (or 51.36) % "yes" and 48.77 or 48.64 "no".

 

There may be miniscule changes but it is like a more or less 2 - 3 point difference between yes and no.

 

Two balcony speeches have already been made. But these are unofficial results. 

 

All big cities (6) said "no."

 

 The no block has increased its success around 50 % and the yes result is lower than the presidential result.

 

It is said that AKP had an around  3% loss because of this federation crisis in the last days.

 

Another significant point is that "yes" for a new constitution was 70 %, but "yes" for this particular system system  is 51.23. This is considered a serious message by the public here. 

 

15% of AKP did not say "yes", 34% of MHP said "yes." 2% of HDP said "yes". 

 

Note: The 60 % you heard is about first boxes opened. In Turkey, they usually start announcing results from smallish places in the east first (the vote starts an hour early and ends an hour early) which may not give an accurate picture. Usually, we don't take those first hours very seriously.  

 

Votes from abroad gave AKP a 1% advantage. 

 

Worked all day in this, knackered now, will have a cuppa :) 

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German TV is very concerned about this referendum, however nobody gave a shit when a similar decision took place in Russia 15 years ago. Putin cancelled elections of the governors of federal subjects, which essentially made Russian Federation Russian „Federation“.

 

Is it because of diaspora or because Germany does want Turkey to be in the EU?

 

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Here we see that half of this country does not want this system, 49-51. Lost Ankara and Istanbul for the first time since 2002. This is considered a very serious opposition that raised a strong voice here despite all circumstances. Pessimists say the country is divided into two now. Others say everyone will consider this now before making drastic decisions as balances have changed dramatically. One analyst said this is the opposition's new experience of a possibility to win now. (That will depend on MHP though.)  Why is Germany pessimistic?

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German media believes that they are stuck with a large population of Turks who don't think like Germans about Turkish politics, and that Causes Concern.

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Its funny how people like Erdogan, Putin, Mugabe, Sisi etc go thorough the charades of referendum or voting ? is it to cover their guilt, for their conscious or to show respectability globally.

That way atleast we have to grant to Iran that they actually choose the president and there is no guarantee that the last one gets selected. Same goes for many African states like Benin or Gambia

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57 minutes ago, Eupathic Impulse said:

German media believes that they are stuck with a large population of Turks who don't think like Germans about Turkish politics, and that Causes Concern.

What should that mean? Are Turkish German politicians who are concerned about Erdogan „Turks“ or „Germans“ in your world?

 

1 hour ago, zeino said:

Why is Germany pessimistic?

Depends whom. Green party is very concerned because they want Turkey be a democracy. CDU/CSU and others do not care: business will go as usual, they care about money only. Merkel will most probably say the usual „blablabla, es soll eine Lösung geben“.

 

15 minutes ago, RajeshG said:

Its funny how people like Erdogan, Putin, Mugabe, Sisi etc go thorough the charades of referendum or voting ?

Legacy of the crisis of monarchy in the early 20th century. You could no longer say „L'etat, c'est moi“*, so those who wanted to be a monarch had to invent these pseudo-democratic rituals.

 

*The linked article says Louis XIV actually didn't say that, in contrast. I use it just as a general symbol of monarchy, when the only legacy of a king needed was being a son of the previous king.

 

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2 minutes ago, yourkeau said:

What should that mean? Are Turkish German politicians who are concerned about Erdogan „Turks“ or „Germans“ in your world?

 

I said that the German media thinks that way, by the sheer number of articles in Welt, Zeit, etc, attempting to analyze the mysteeerious foreign mentality of Erdoğan-supporting individuals with Turkish voting rights living in Germany.

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On the other hand one can note that:

1. There is no prime minister in the US either.

2. President is a chief commander of military and prime minister.

 

But this strong presidential system (which is no good anyway) is balanced by strong Congress and independent judges. Turkey doesn't have this to protect itself from „Trump“...

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9 hours ago, Eupathic Impulse said:

Erdoğan-supporting individuals with Turkish voting rights living in Germany.

 

I wonder what the voting figures for Germany are.  I saw someone on Facebook post something which suggested it was 60% pro Erdoğan.

 

Anyway, wouldn't it be funny if a load of persecuted Turks started heading this way! 

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I reckon the Turks in our local town must have been No voters, they weren't driving around sounding horns and letting off fireworks like they normally are when something big happens in Turkey.

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My Turkish relatives in Germany are *very subdued*. No idea where all the yes votes came from... but the first rumors have started.

The Turkish opposition already has released statements about unstamped ballots having been added, and wants to object to the vote. Oh boy.

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12 hours ago, zeino said:

Here we see that half of this country does not want this system, 49-51. Lost Ankara and Istanbul for the first time since 2002. This is considered a very serious opposition that raised a strong voice here despite all circumstances. Pessimists say the country is divided into two now. Others say everyone will consider this now before making drastic decisions as balances have changed dramatically. One analyst said this is the opposition's new experience of a possibility to win now. (That will depend on MHP though.)  Why is Germany pessimistic?

Brexit was the same, we have a divided country. The cities said remain, the rural areas said leave. We now have Scotland wanting to break away from the Union, N. Ireland thinking  about it and boys being sent to negotiate with the EU on Brexit.

 

So with Turkey, you have a very similar breakdown. Whilst Erdogan may have won the referendum, I can't see it doing anything to unite the country, if anything it will polarise it even more. Now for the AKP supporters, a warning from History.

 

Those who went for the populist vote by rebuilding infrastructure, skewing the economy to help their core supporters ultimately ending up getting into a conflict because the economy was nearly bankrupt and additional income/ the propping up of support had to be found by attacking other states.

 

Germany 1939. The economy was bankrupt and needed the resources from other countries the pay for the policies.

 

Argentina 1982. Gen. Galtieri was very unpopular with a failing economy and needed something to galvanise the population and keep him in power.

 

So far Erdogan has spent a lot of money on infrastructure and grand schemes. Meanwhile the economy has nosedived, Tourism has plummeted and investment by foreign companies is stalling. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/Erdogans_Turkey

 

He has started by removing critics, he is blaming internal problems on foreign powers and he is removing the checks and balances within government.

 

So what's next?

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1 hour ago, hellfire99 said:

 

I wonder what the voting figures for Germany are.  I saw someone on Facebook post something which suggested it was 60% pro Erdoğan.

 

Anyway, wouldn't it be funny if a load of persecuted Turks started heading this way! 

 

Numbers stated here at 63 %. Many of them will vote for left in German elections. Maybe it's time German left starts considering this beyond the simple, oh yes, they are voting for their interests level and have an approach about their own voters.

 

 

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My Turkish friend is raging and raving about the rigging the results of that referendum:

 

 
They won by 1.2 million votes at 51% after the so called independent voting commission admitted on live tv that they accepted 1.5 million votes in UNSEALED bags by the request of the ruling party.
 
Not only this is against all kinds of laws and regulations, it also shows how careless they are to have the audacity to tell about it on live TV with the full knowledge that they won't face any prosecution
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19 hours ago, Eupathic Impulse said:

So it looks like zeino's prediction was right and it's going to be a 60% win for Evet.

 

I think that @yourkeau 's take on it is a bit reductionist.  Erdoğan owes his political support to more than just his attacks on the rights of the opposition, although surely that's part of it.  People keep trying to talk around/argue around the basic fact that he has done something for his followers, and some yes voters are voting yes even if they find him distasteful.

Rigging the result to make it "yes" should have been an obvious "prediction" in this case.

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1 minute ago, klubbnika said:

My Turkish friend is raging and raving about the rigging the results of that referendum:

 

 
They won by 1.2 million votes at 51% after the so called independent voting commission admitted on live tv that they accepted 1.5 million votes in UNSEALED bags by the request of the ruling party.
 
Not only this is against all kinds of laws and regulations, it also shows how careless they are to have the audacity to tell about it on live TV with the full knowledge that they won't face any prosecution

 

We have a saying in my part of the world - When your lover/husband is/becomes the police head, what is there to fear

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39 minutes ago, RajeshG said:

 

We have a saying in my part of the world - When your lover/husband is/becomes the police head, what is there to fear

 

People. 

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