Brexit: The fallout

13,721 posts in this topic

56 minutes ago, murphaph said:

We are seeing a chastened UK being told what to do by China, the EU and US.

If you watched the Huawei theater, it is clear that the UK will stick with the US if a decision needs to be made between China and the US.  

 

If Trump wins re-election, and from my POV, that seems to be 60-70% likely,  Leader for Life Xi won't be around in 5 years, and things will get much tougher immediately for parts of the EU, e.g. Germany.

56 minutes ago, murphaph said:

Leaving the EU significantly weakens the UK on the international stage. It was the US' 'representative' in the EU.

Can you elaborate on this representative role?

 

The US has military bases and a significant political presence in the EU.   Can you give an example of how the UK was needed to intermediate anything between the EU and US?

56 minutes ago, murphaph said:

It benefits Russia to see the EU tear itself apart. It's a Russian project, like Trump.

If you want to minimize Russian influence over the EU, make your voice heard against Nordstream II.   

 

Do you think Trump's vocal opposition to NS2 is reverse psychology or misdirection?

 

56 minutes ago, murphaph said:

 

But heck, this strong negotiating position will make itself known any day now I'm sure. It hasn't over the past almost 5 years, but any day now... We only have to wait until January to see this stronger hand pay dividends.

 

If you only read one side, you will continue to believe that the Brexit side is being run by misbehaved children unwilling to admit that everything can be better as long as the UK hands over all serious decisions to the EU commission.   You might even think that the EU is trying to negotiate a Brexit deal in good faith.  

56 minutes ago, murphaph said:

Turkey's strategic importance was evident from the moment the cold war began. All one has to do is look at an atlas. Turkey is close to the former Soviet oil fields but even more obviously, Turkey controlled shipping into and out of the Black Sea from the Soviet Union herself as well as much of the Eastern bloc.

 

European Russia has two routes to the Atlantic (not counting Kaliningrad):   Bosporus Strait and Gulf of Finland.   Blockades could cause serious problems very easily. 

56 minutes ago, murphaph said:

Anyway, Cyprus and several other smaller states would never allow the UK rejoin the EU without first handing over sovereign control of their SBAs. The UK could possibly rent some or all of the land back, if Cyprus were agreeable, but it would by Cyprus' decision. It's just another example of how Brexit has fundamentally weakened the UK. It was a chronically stupid decision and it will be studied for centuries I suspect.

The idea that Cyprus could influence negotiations much if at all on this type of point seems exaggerated.   Ditto for the Spain / Gibraltar.     You seem to rejoice in the idea that people are motivated by tribalism, e.g. the importance of the Irish American vote, Remember Suez!, etc.   

 

Alliances shift.   Note that some Arab countries are making peace with Israel so that they are not standing alone when it comes time to defend against a common threat.  

 

By the way, wouldn't Vladimir prefer that there is no US and UK presence in the east Med?   Are you the paid troll you keep referring to, murphaph, or is that murphavich?  ;) 

56 minutes ago, murphaph said:

 

When Spain asked to join the then EEC it was under amongst others, British conditions. Spain was compelled to open the border and normalise relations between Gibraltar and Spain. If and when the UK ever applies for EU membership, the shoe will be on the other foot. Spain will not countenance UK membership unless Gibraltar is on the table.

 

Spain does not have the clout within the EU that the UK had when Spain went through the entry process. 

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5 minutes ago, balticus said:

Spain does not have the clout within the EU that the UK had when Spain went through the entry process. 

 

[My emphasis] Good use of the past tense, balticus!

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27 minutes ago, Smaug said:

 

[My emphasis] Good use of the past tense, balticus!

Actually, Madrid itself may have lost a lot of its potential clout since the mishandling of the Catalonia “ issue “ a year or two ago. According to some admittedly superficial reading of opinions there,  Catalonian political opinion seems to have “ understanding “ and “ sympathy “ for the Gibraltarian populations’s mindset re “ self-determination. “ 


This could come back to bite Madrid at some stage.

 

 

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Typically Russian trolling above. Put out a load of different alternative theories and walk away. Same as with the attempt on Navalny's life by the Kremlin.

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I found this to be interesting -

 

Quote

 

Amal Clooney, the famous human rights lawyer, resigned as the UK's special envoy on media freedom on Friday in protest at the Government's plan to break international law with the Internal Market Bill.

Mrs Clooney, married to the film star George Clooney, wrote to Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, to tell him she was quitting because of the "lamentable Bill". 

She said the UK's actions threatened "to embolden autocratic regimes that violate international law, with devastating consequences all over the world".

Her decision to quit follows the resignations of two other senior lawyers – the advocate general for Scotland, Lord Keen, and the head of the Government Legal Department, Sir Jonathan Jones.

 

It will add to the pressure on Boris Johnson, who has been facing calls to drop measures in the Bill enabling ministers to override provisions in the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement relating to Northern Ireland.

 

 

the rest

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2 hours ago, Smaug said:

 

[My emphasis] Good use of the past tense, balticus!

 

Which tense would you use to describe something which happened in 1986?

 

40 minutes ago, murphaph said:

Typically Russian trolling above. Put out a load of different alternative theories and walk away. 

 

The only one walking away from the discussion is you, murphavich. 

 

How is it that all these alleged Kremlin puppets are anti-Nordstream II?

 

🤪🤯

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Nobody's fooled except the multiple online personalities of the above poster.

 

The above poster can make a pilgrimage to Sunderland or Northern Ireland in 5 years and explain to them that thanks to Brexit, they've never had it so good.

 

I predict a few headbutts and balls being kicked in response.

 

I just pray that enough Americans see fit to steer their country off the right-wing rocks in November. That will put a lot of pressure on the UK government to alter course too. It's in nobody's interest in Europe to have a formally stable member descend into madness. 

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2 hours ago, murphaph said:

Nobody's fooled except the multiple online personalities of the above poster.

 

I read all of your posts using the voice of Groundskeeper Willie from the Simpsons even if the accent isn't Irish.  

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Stolen from an excellent Guardian comment. Enjoy it in your favourite Scottish (not sure how they do him in Russia though) groundskeeper's accent:

 

t'was the night before Brexit, and all through the House
not an MP was stirring, not an ERG louse.
The lorries were lined up in Dover with care,
In hopes that Ferries soon would be there;
The Brexiters were nestled all snug in their beds;
While visions of Unicorns danced in their heads;
And Boris in his 'kerchief, and Dom in his cap,
Had settled bank accounts for a long Cayman nap,
When in came news from a distant border,
Trade deal's collapsed, thrombosis, disorder.
Away to Threadneedle he flew like a flash,
Tore open the coffers and splurged all the cash.
Public procurement reached an all time new low,
Bonfire of the rules, anything may go,
When what to my wondering eyes did appear,
an improper contract. What the heck she's a Peer!
With a bank draft so confident, lively, and quick,
I knew that, of course, it wasn't being Nick'd.
More rapid than eagles his cabinet descended,
to distribute cash via those they'd befriended:
"Now, Ashok! now Gavin,! now Liz and Rishi!
On, Hancock! on Grayling! on Suella and Priti!
To the Caymans, to Jersey! to the Isle of Man!
Now cash away! cash away! It's legal 'cause we can!"
As notes that before the wild hurricane fly,
Ain't no obstacle, this money can't buy.

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21 hours ago, murphaph said:

The above poster can make a pilgrimage to Sunderland or Northern Ireland in 5 years and explain to them that thanks to Brexit, they've never had it so good.

 

Priti will give him a visa, you think?

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This, from The Sunday Times today, is rather alarming...

 

Brexit strips expats of UK bank accounts

 

Quote

Tens of thousands of Britons who live in Europe are to be stripped of their UK bank accounts and credit cards within weeks, because the government has failed to negotiate post-Brexit rules.

 

A number of the biggest British banks, including Lloyds, Barclays and the Queen’s bank, Coutts, have started writing to expatriates to say they will stop serving them when the withdrawal agreement ends at 11pm on December 31.

 

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There already has been. Billions of assets have left the UK to be managed in Dublin alone. Other cities have profited from this exodus too.

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HSBC has already cottoned on... you can't change your address to a UK one online... there seems to be a bug... there must be a few million ex-pats who left the country but maintained an account there.

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If I have my HSBC account closed, I suppose I will have to move it to a European bank or go with one of those dodge channel island banks.

 

That would of been ok, but since the BREXIT got popular in the UK the pound has sunk massively in value against the EURO, so we could all be on for massive losses

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No no. The pound is fine. Just ask around here. Your bank accounts won't be closed. Just ask around here. It's all good.

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