Brexit: The fallout

13,704 posts in this topic

6 minutes ago, john g. said:

Some good points there, murphaph! But Cyprus hasn‘t been a British colony since 1960.

Your final paragraph/sentence  is a great summary.👍🏼

 

The British still have military base in Cyprus.  It is a British Overseas Territory like Gibraltar.

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Only a couple of military bases. The rest of the place is sovereign Cypriot territory. 
I‘ll check with our beach taverna owner- he‘s a Greek Cypriot!

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1 hour ago, jeba said:

Another issue: what will happen to Gibraltar? You don´t hear about it.

 

Go back to selling duty free cigarettes and being a haven for shady online gambling websites, money laundering and quirky tourism. Fantasy border drawing: They should hold a plebiscite, leave the UK, join Malta. Both microstates with similar economies, and even some shared history.

 

But realistically, its fate is sealed, just a matter of time. Ceuta and Melilla likewise.

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57 minutes ago, alderhill said:

 

Go back to selling duty free cigarettes and being a haven for shady online gambling websites, money laundering and quirky tourism. Fantasy border drawing: They should hold a plebiscite, leave the UK, join Malta. Both microstates with similar economies, and even some shared history.

 

But realistically, its fate is sealed, just a matter of time. Ceuta and Melilla likewise.

The Catalans might want to chat about that! And some Basques.

The point is re Gibraltar, Falklands/Malvinas etc, both Britain and Spain were major rival  imperialist powers historically and the chaos is still there.

Same in many parts of Latin America. For example, there are still unsolved border disputes between English-speaking Belize and Spanish-speaking Guatemala and between English- speaking Guyana and Spanish-speaking Venezuela.

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23 minutes ago, john g. said:

Only a couple of military bases.


I like the Dekhelia one. You get very nice fish and chips there.

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1 hour ago, murphaph said:

Ireland, Gibraltar, Cyprus. Three UK-EU borders created by British imperialism ultimately.

 

Whatever about Gibraltar, the continued Cyprus occupation is clearly against the will of most Cypriots and as Cyprus is a member state of the EU will also cause problems in the future, just as the Turkish occupation of Cyprus does. The UK will never be able to rejoin the EU (I expect an application in a generation or so) without forfeiting both Gibraltar and their Cyprus possessions.

 

Brexit has shone a spotlight on all of these things. Britain's imperial past is really coming back to bite it in the arse.

 

Irish America (only exists because of British treatment of Ireland during the 19th century) blocking a trade deal, MERCOSUR trade deal blocked because the Argentinian government will be demanding the return of the Malvinas before anything is signed, China 😂 (HK).

 

Britain should have kept its head down as a middleweight country with great influence inside the world's largest trading bloc but that wasn't enough for it.

Some info about Irish influence in Latin America, murphaph, including the Irish Queen of Paraguay! 😜https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/ten-things-you-might-not-know-about-the-irish-in-latin-america-1.3230619

 

 

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1 hour ago, murphaph said:

Brexit Party Ltd. calibre Tory MP really isn't helping matters:

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottBentonMP/status/1306627419311427584

 

Trump's NI envoy has today also warned about creating a border in Ireland "by accident". This is a telling tweet. It illustrates that the Irish American vote is too important to alienate.

That some conservative MPs have also accused Biden of playing to Irish vote, i'd say you are correct.

It's funny that it was said years ago that the irish border issue would be the sticking point and there we are 4 years later...

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2 minutes ago, cb6dba said:

That some conservative MPs have also accused Biden of playing to Irish vote,

 

Don't most if not all politicians play to every vote? Irish, black, white, Hispanic, etc. How is that an accusation?

 

It's what they do.

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1 minute ago, fraufruit said:

 

Don't most if not all politicians play to every vote? Irish, black, white, Hispanic, etc. How is that an accusation?

They are saying he is making this a topic to get the backing of irish voters (I guess as opposed to actually being interested in the situation).

It's double funny as it is politicians saying it, and that is what they do and the conservatives have never been bothered about trump jumping it.

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4 hours ago, john g. said:

Some info about Irish influence in Latin America, murphaph, including the Irish Queen of Paraguay! 😜https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/abroad/ten-things-you-might-not-know-about-the-irish-in-latin-america-1.3230619

 

The main east-west boulevard in Santiago, Chile is named after Bernardo O'Higgins who was a founding father of Chile and the son of number 7 in your article's list.  

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Funnily enough, balticus, I stayed at a Chilean friend’s house in Santiago in 1974. The street name?

Calle Sir Arthur Conan Doyle! ( a Scot.)

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20 hours ago, murphaph said:

Whatever about Gibraltar, the continued Cyprus occupation is clearly against the will of most Cypriots and as Cyprus is a member state of the EU will also cause problems in the future, just as the Turkish occupation of Cyprus does. The UK will never be able to rejoin the EU (I expect an application in a generation or so) without forfeiting both Gibraltar and their Cyprus possessions.

 

The EU depends on the UK for defence and security and gets huge benefits from Britain's military.   With the US less interested to provide free security to NATO members which do not spend enough money to maintain a competent fighting force, the UK has a lot of leverage over the EU and it seems doubtful that the EU will make any moves with respect to Gibraltar, Cyprus, or Scotland outside of rhetoric.

 

There does not seem to be a thread on TT about the posturing in the east Mediterranean Sea right now, nor the intervention of various countries (Russia, Turkey, Egypt) in Libya.   Being able to project power will continue to be important even if the Cold War is sort of over and many Europeans don't see imminent threats.

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Lol. The British sat in their bases in Cyprus during the 1974 invasion and subsequent occupation by Turkey and we're now expected to believe that they are essential for the security of the eastern Mediterranean.

 

I'm quite sure the EU could help Cyprus financially with the cost of operating the listening stations on Cyprus if that was deemed useful. That's what it's mostly about these days as warfare has gone cyber. The UK doesn't have much of an armed forces in terms of men and equipment these days and as we move away from fossil fuels our 'interest' in the middle East will wane. See their adventures with their aircraft carrier for details.

 

I actually agree with Trump on one thing. The EU should not be so reliant on the US and NATO as a whole for its defence against (primarily) Russian aggression (ironically where a few of the paid trolls on here 'earn' their crusts). The EU can afford to defend itself.

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22 minutes ago, murphaph said:

Lol. The British sat in their bases in Cyprus during the 1974 invasion and subsequent occupation by Turkey and we're now expected to believe that they are essential for the security of the eastern Mediterranean.

 

Turkey's importance in the Cold War 45 years ago was different than it is now.    If there is no presence of UK forces, it could be worse as the US has been pulling back.

 

22 minutes ago, murphaph said:

I'm quite sure the EU could help Cyprus financially with the cost of operating the listening stations on Cyprus if that was deemed useful. That's what it's mostly about these days as warfare has gone cyber. The UK doesn't have much of an armed forces in terms of men and equipment these days and as we move away from fossil fuels our 'interest' in the middle East will wane. See their adventures with their aircraft carrier for details.

Cyber is important, but what is happening in Libya and in the eastern Med is not going to be countered with cyber defence.  

 

 

The Turkish military could wipe the floor with any EU country's military outside of the UK and possibly France.   

 

The EU has not become a net exporter of oil and gas (as the US has) so it might be a bit premature to become disinterested in the middle east especially if you have an economy disproportionally dependent on automobile production.    In addition, volatility in places like Libya has an enormous effect on the EU, especially the southern members.     Keeping external actors from stirring things up is basic defence of EU security interests. 

 

 

I would like to point out one of our fundamental differences:    I see the role of the UK in EU to be incredibly important.    The EU will continue to rely on the UK independent of Brexit and this gives the UK a lot of leverage in the talks.   I have the impression that you have discounted this and believe that the EU negotiating position in Brexit talks is considerably stronger than it is.   

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We are seeing a chastened UK being told what to do by China, the EU and US. Leaving the EU significantly weakens the UK on the international stage. It was the US' 'representative' in the EU. It benefits Russia to see the EU tear itself apart. It's a Russian project, like Trump.

 

But heck, this strong negotiating position will make itself known any day now I'm sure. It hasn't over the past almost 5 years, but any day now.... We only have to wait until January to see this stronger hand pay dividends.

 

Turkey's strategic importance was evident from the moment the cold war began. All one has to do is look at an atlas. Turkey is close to the former Soviet oil fields but even more obviously, Turkey controlled shipping into and out of the Black Sea from the Soviet Union herself as well as much of the Eastern bloc.

 

Anyway, Cyprus and several other smaller states would never allow the UK rejoin the EU without first handing over sovereign control of their SBAs. The UK could possibly rent some or all of the land back, if Cyprus were agreeable, but it would by Cyprus' decision. It's just another example of how Brexit has fundamentally weakened the UK. It was a chronically stupid decision and it will be studied for centuries I suspect.

 

When Spain asked to join the then EEC it was under amongst others, British conditions. Spain was compelled to open the border and normalise relations between Gibraltar and Spain. If and when the UK ever applies for EU membership, the shoe will be on the other foot. Spain will not countenance UK membership unless Gibraltar is on the table.

 

The UK has gotten itself into an awful bind for Vladimir, who must go to bed with a huge smile on his face every night.

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8 minutes ago, murphaph said:

We are seeing a chastened UK being told what to do by China, the EU and US. Leaving the EU significantly weakens the UK on the international stage. It was the US' 'representative' in the EU. It benefits Russia to see the EU tear itself apart. It's a Russian project, like Trump.

 

But heck, this strong negotiating position will make itself known any day now I'm sure. It hasn't over the past almost 5 years, but any day now... We only have to wait until January to see this stronger hand pay dividends.

 

Turkey's strategic importance was evident from the moment the cold war began. All one has to do is look at an atlas. Turkey is close to the former Soviet oil fields but even more obviously, Turkey controlled shipping into and out of the Black Sea from the Soviet Union herself as well as much of the Eastern bloc.

 

Anyway, Cyprus and several other smaller states would never allow the UK rejoin the EU without first handing over sovereign control of their SBAs. The UK could possibly rent some or all of the land back, if Cyprus were agreeable, but it would by Cyprus' decision. It's just another example of how Brexit has fundamentally weakened the UK. It was a chronically stupid decision and it will be studied for centuries I suspect.

 

When Spain asked to join the then EEC it was under amongst others, British conditions. Spain was compelled to open the border and normalise relations between Gibraltar and Spain. If and when the UK ever applies for EU membership, the shoe will be on the other foot. Spain will not countenance UK membership unless Gibraltar is on the table.

 

The UK has gotten itself into an awful bind for Vladimir, who must go to bed with a huge smile on his face every night.

I like your knowledge!👍🏼 And your insights. I would just like to add- too right that Spain reopened the border with Gibraltar. Partly because of the application to join the EEC and partly to join NATO.

Why do I say “ too right?”.

Closing the border was Franco’s doing and I won’t side with fascists like him. 

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