Brexit: The fallout

12,046 posts in this topic

48 minutes ago, balticus said:

Which point do you disagree on?

RE: gold investments are a no-go due to current situation...and how do you define a crash?

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10 minutes ago, jeremytwo said:

Yes but they are buggered when they have to climb any stairs!

 

You have not been keeping up!  Elevate!

 

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, snowingagain said:

 

You have not been keeping up!  Elevate!

 

 

:lol::lol::lol::lol: this has qualified this blog as the best!

 

 

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3 hours ago, dom said:

RE: gold investments are a no-go due to current situation...and how do you define a crash?

 

Gold is doing great right now, but i don't expect a return to the Gold Standard as in pre August 1973.   

 

I did not mention a crash.    

 

 

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3 hours ago, balticus said:

 

Gold is doing great right now, but i don't expect a return to the Gold Standard as in pre August 1973.   

 

I did not mention a crash.    

 

 

 

Balti - there is a crash baked into the fiat money cake. Fiat money systems only usually last 30 years. 2008 was actually overdue from its inception in 1973. We have had an alliance with the Saudis since then where we defend their sandpits with US blood and they buy oil with dollars. The rest of the world has to recycle the petrodollar. 

 

Check these out:

 

 

 

 

Here is what Alan Greenspan said in 1966:

 

Quote

Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government's promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. 

 

https://www.constitution.org/mon/greenspan_gold.htm

 

Quote

A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. 

 

 

If you listen to Bill Holter you'll hear a bombshell. They redefined "gold" as actual stuff in the ground (they reckon there's tons in the Grand Canyon) so if you have the stuff in your geology yet to be extracted, you are safe. But it has to be economic. Presently gold prices are 1400 an ounce, but some project prices of 80,000 dollars may be possible then it will be extractable. The other undervalued asset is silver (Gold is the currency of kings but silver the currency of knaves).

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While I personally think that Brexit is an act of mass national self-harm, I think that for your average person they will not notice any real difference. There are around 170 countries that are not part of the EU, and some of them do just fine (although 150 of them would probably love to be in the EU). Consider that visa-on-arrival schemes more or less make for free movement, as most people don't want to leave their village let alone their country; reciprocal healthcare arrangements can easily be covered by travel insurance in most cases; and highly skilled workers will be eligible for other migration pathways. 

 

I don't think that it is unreasonable for a country to expect migrants to speak the language before they arrive, given we're talking about a skilled migration pathway. The UK government's policy paper has not actually specified what a sufficient level of English will be, and as far as I know there will remain no language requirement on the existent visa schemes.   

 

The UK government can in theory alleviate emerging labour shortages by changes immigration policy on the fly. Australia certainly does this, as does the US. For the 7bn odd global citizens who aren't members of the EU, it will probably be easier to move to Britain. 

 

I perfectly understand why my friends in London and Edinburgh hate Brexit, but I can also see why many people did not feel that EU membership benefited them. I would dare guess that if there was a referendum in Germany on abandoning the common currency it would be a closely fought contest, despite how important a depreciated currency is to the economy here. The Germans love the idea of a strong and independent Bundesbank, and the British love blue passports...

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6 hours ago, Auswanderer said:

I think that for your average person they will not notice any real difference

I´m not so sure. If the consequence will be an economic downturn and/or higher prices everyone will feel it. They may not see the connection though.

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The ordinary citizen will notice the effects of Brexit the most! The rich can insulate themselves. Most have already bought alternative currencies.

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7 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

 

Wait what? He wants it both ways? 

 

Well, of course. It's the same "all for me and none for thee" logic that has thousands of undocumented immigrants working on Trump properties.  They are all scum cut from the same rancid cloth.

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16 hours ago, murphaph said:

It`s amazing how something that is only 0.1% of UK GDP became such a big thing in regards to Brexit.

Especially as the Scottish fishing industry makes up 53% of the UK fishing industry and as we know Scotland voted against.

 

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Indeed however Scotland's fisheries will make Scotland's accession to the EU that much easier when Scots finally get fed up of being told what to do by the English.

 

Ireland brought little to the table in 1973 but our vast fisheries were important to the then EEC. It made and makes sense to trade fishing rights like this to be part of the single market for the rest of the economy. Ireland (as would be the case for Scotland following independence) wasn't actually able to capitalise on the fisheries because the domestic market for fish was and is too small compared to the size of the fisheries and being outside the common market meant stiff tariffs on fish exported to the continent. Fish simply went uncaught or caught illegally by non-Irish boats.

 

I suspect the Scots will see it the same way post independence. 

 

The few natural resources the UK has are largely in Scotland (fish, oil, wind). An electricity interconnector between France and Ireland is to start construction soon. Could we yet see Scottish wind and wave power exported to the continental EU via Ireland, bypassing England completely?

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Celtic_Interconnector

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Initially things will continue with the current workforce but these sectors have high staff turnover (nobody wants to wash dishes forever) so soon enough there will be severe labour shortages in these sectors. Places will indeed have to shut if the policy change is not reversed.

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This showed up on my newsfeed, I expect the UK will go the sameway.

 

Poland is cocking up migration in a very European way

 

Unfortunately, Poland is being a bit too European about it. Western Europe turned to immigration during the post-war economic boom.... Poland’s nationalist Law and Justice (pis) government has tacitly arrived at the same solution: immigration. Public policy ought to benefit from second-mover advantage. Governments can observe and avoid the mistakes made by others. When it comes to immigration, western Europe offers plenty of lessons. Yet Warsaw seems to be ignoring them and enthusiastically repeating other countries’ cock-ups.

 

 

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