Brexit: The fallout

12,047 posts in this topic

18 minutes ago, El Jeffo said:

Not a big reader, I see. Let me help you (be sure to take plenty of breaks whenever your lips get tired):

 

So households are adding 2nd earners out of necessity and aren't spending any more.

 

Average wages beat 2008 levels for the first time since the Great Recession, but:

 

Moreover:

 

The economy has been adding jobs out of necessity, likely to deal with future red tape, as evidenced by the decline in productivity, which of course is linked with the slowdown in wage increases. Hardly a glowing report card.

 

Financial markets tend to differ.

 

Pound now at 1.2066 against the Euro. 

 

Could change but the financial markets now believe that the UK economy is in fact not finished.

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Indeed it does make a very good progress. Last 5 years of pound vs euro to be seen here. The big dump is 2016. Dunno what happened there.

chart1.png

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1 hour ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Not a man of fact I see.

 

Maybe you can comment on the employment figures, surely this was not supposed to happen.

 

https://www.cityam.com/uk-employment-hits-new-record-high-as-jobless-total-falls/

UK economy has been adding jobs because business is afraid to invest in automation and productivity is steadily falling. If you hold off on such investment you are forced into hiring manual labour instead. The UK is less productive than France though the average Daily Express reader would choke on his false teeth if you told him this truth.

 

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37 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Financial markets tend to differ.

 

Pound now at 1.2066 against the Euro. 

 

Could change but the financial markets now believe that the UK economy is in fact not finished.

The pound collapsed after the referendum and has been bouncing along the bottom since then.

1 hour ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, murphaph said:

 

The WTO is NOT a single market!!!

 

 

It is a single legal order.  Reread your post, Tovarish Murphaph.

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1 hour ago, Wherearewegoingto said:

Indeed it does make a very good progress. Last 5 years of pound vs euro to be seen here. The big dump is 2016. Dunno what happened there.

chart1.png

 

Why not go back further?

 

Put a graph for the last 12 years. 

 

Pound in 2011 and now are basically the same.

 

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1 hour ago, murphaph said:

The pound collapsed after the referendum and has been bouncing along the bottom since then.

 

 

 

So in 2011 and now the pound is the same. 

 

Stop making up sh*t.

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1 hour ago, murphaph said:

UK economy has been adding jobs because business is afraid to invest in automation and productivity is steadily falling. If you hold off on such investment you are forced into hiring manual labour instead. 

 

Is that a consequence of Brexit?

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Of course not. Brexit is great. It's all going to work out fine for the UK while here in Germany we'll be in the poor house. If Johnson doesn't bottle it again we won't have to wait much longer anyway. End of this year we can see those sunlit uplands and look on with awe and envy.

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5 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

Why not go back further?

 

Put a graph for the last 12 years. 

 

Pound in 2011 and now are basically the same.

 

Absolutely after the financial crisis in 2009 it took until 2015 to be back to halfwaychart.png.b65ac4d0239b927f084fbd88f94a82 before it went down again.

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12 hours ago, murphaph said:

Of course not. Brexit is great. It's all going to work out fine for the UK ...

 

That's the spirit, murphaph.  

 

Now if BoJo can eliminate Huawei from consideration for the 5g buildout and get a f#%^ing haircut, I would say things look good. 

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Yeah yeah. You're fooling nobody. I couldn't be bothered arguing with you as when facts and figures like those which reveal EU states are simply looking for alternative markets to the UK are presented, you just stop posting for a few days until the topic has moved on and then start posting your drivel again.

 

Maybe I won't let you off so easily. Maybe I will just keep posting statistics office figures that show EU companies reducing their exposure to the UK market every quarter. Ireland has gone from 15% of its exports going to the UK to 8.8% since the referendum.

 

Maybe you could explain why exports to the UK from the EU are falling quite dramatically in some cases (especially Ireland).

 

If you claim it's simply a currency issue (i.e that imports from the EU into the UK only fell because Sterling is weak compared to the Euro), you will be able to show that a similar drop in EU imports occurred around 2011 in the aftermath of the financial crisis when the pound reached an even lower level against the Euro. But you won't be able to because imports into the UK from the EU in 2011 did NOT decline. They increased in spite of the weak pound.

 

The decline in exports to the UK from the EU is as a direct result of the conscious decisions of tens of thousands of EU businesses to focus on other markets which are easier to deal with due to being in the single market, arguably the UK's greatest gift to the EU!

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15 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

So in 2011 and now the pound is the same. 

Stop making up sh*t.

 

RF, sometimes you're just out to get on peoples' nerves! We discussed here before that the value of the pound is too loose an indicator of the consequence of brexit...

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The government is finally introducing new rules to curb EU immigration.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51550421

 

What's interesting is that in the same piece it states that immigration from non EU countries will be relaxed.

 

People wanting to come to the UK from outside the EU will find rules are being relaxed, such as scrapping the cap on skilled workers or the drop in minimum salary.

But for EU migrants who are used to moving freely between Britain and the continent, the new regime will be something of a shock.

 

As I read that it says anyone from a poor low skill economy such as Bangladesh as well as the whole of the Asian Sub Continent can still come where as your semi skilled Polish plumber or European trained Nurse will be barred. The rules should be the same for everybody or doesn't Priti Patel want too much competition for these workers from her family's Heimat?

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1 hour ago, French bean said:

The government is finally introducing new rules to curb EU immigration.

...

As I read that it says anyone from a poor low skill economy such as Bangladesh as well as the whole of the Asian Sub Continent can still come where as your semi skilled Polish plumber or European trained Nurse will be barred. The rules should be the same for everybody or doesn't Priti Patel want too much competition for these workers from her family's Heimat?

Based on the released policy proposal, everyone, regardless of their country of origin, will be subject to the same set of criteria in determining if they will be eligible for a visa. A prospective migrant from Bangladesh, and a prospective migrant from France will be both assessed by considering their skills and qualifications. It was always (historical caveats aside) possible to migrate to the UK under various migration schemes. These schemes will now also apply to the EU. From the perspective of someone in a non-EU country it is now slightly easier to move to the UK because there will be no cap on the number of visas offered, but the hurdles are still relatively high.  

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So why does the report say that entry requirements for no EU citizens will be relaxed? Surely it should be the same rules for everyone, irrespective of where they came from.

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