Brexit: The fallout

12,047 posts in this topic

7 minutes ago, murphaph said:

 

Do you believe EU businesses are not diversifying away from their UK markets?

I believe they are trying.

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9 hours ago, murphaph said:

 

Do you believe EU businesses are not diversifying away from their UK markets?

 

Do you think that in parallel they are not lobbying to make trade easy so that something approximating biz as usual can continue?

 

---

 

Former Morgan Stanley Pres says EU capital markets w/o London are not fit for purpose.  

 

https://amp.ft.com/content/fff3fa58-4e65-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5?

 

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9 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

That FT article is behind a paywall.

 

It doesn't really matter though because EU businesses (on the whole) will not be lobbying for anything that weakens the single market. What one US bank says is not representative of reality. The figures I linked to are the emerging reality of Brexit.

 

It's too valuable, even without GB, to risk it all falling apart. You need a single legal order for a single market.

 

If countries don't subject themselves to the ECJ they can't be part of the single market.

 

Companies in the EU are putting their efforts into finding replacement markets. The figures show this. 

 

I personally doubt many of the millions of SMEs in the EU have sent even one letter lobbying for a soft deal for the UK but I do believe most with exposure to UK markets will have taken at least some steps to find alternative markets.

 

At the start of this Leavers thought these EU companies would be their saviours, forcing the evil commission to give the UK a bag of sweets and a pat on the head. This has not happened and the FIGURES instead show that in the case of Ireland and Germany, exports to the UK are already down in percentage terms as firms seek to diversify away from their UK markets.

 

This essentially disproves the "they need us more than we need them" lie told by leave campaigners before, during and after the vote.

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19 minutes ago, murphaph said:

That FT article is behind a paywall.

 

It doesn't really matter though because EU businesses (on the whole) will not be lobbying for anything that weakens the single market.

Because they need to appear subservient to Brussels?

19 minutes ago, murphaph said:

What one US bank says is not representative of reality. The figures I linked to are the emerging reality of Brexit.

 

You did not read the article yet you dismiss it.  You have an agenda which is immune to facts.

19 minutes ago, murphaph said:

 

It's too valuable, even without GB, to risk it all falling apart.

 

Yes businesses must maintain their loyalty to Brussels even in an age of globalization.

19 minutes ago, murphaph said:

 

You need a single legal order for a single market.

 

WTO, Tovarish Murph.  

 

 

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I can accept the UK severing relations with Europe over a misguided belief in sovereignty, the value of immigration, and trade positioning.

What I can't accept are grounds based on racism. The news of the Windrush scandal made me physically sick. And now this:

Downing Street has refused to say whether Boris Johnson agrees with an adviser who suggested black people were mentally inferior and advocated compulsory contraception to prevent a “permanent underclass”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-andrew-sabisky-eugenics-contraception-dominic-cummings-downing-street-a9339296.html

(TT bring back the vomiting emoji)! :(

 

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Aaaand we're back to Daily Express type headlines about "Brussels" (there is no "Brussels" of course. Power in the EU vests in the Council, the member states themselves) rather than addressing the salient point:

 

EU businesses are working around Brexit in a manner completely contrary to how it was said they would by the leave side.

 

They conned the British electorate with lies.

 

The WTO is NOT a single market!!!

 

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Not only is the WTO not a single market, it's existence does nothing for companies who were able to handle shipments to the UK without the import/export declarations that they have to do with third party, non-EU members. It's like some folks have never worked in a multi-national doing international commerce. The cost of just hiring and training the clerks to maintain such paperwork is staggering. Any company that developed just to do business within the EU is not going to have the ready infrastructure to simply start working with a non-EU company. JFC, this is such obvious crap I cannot understand how someone doesn't know this. Only government workers are that ignorant of private sector reality.

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31 minutes ago, dom said:

I can accept the UK severing relations with Europe over a misguided belief in sovereignty, the value of immigration, and trade positioning.

What I can't accept are grounds based on racism. The news of the Windrush scandal made me physically sick. And now this:

Downing Street has refused to say whether Boris Johnson agrees with an adviser who suggested black people were mentally inferior and advocated compulsory contraception to prevent a “permanent underclass”.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-andrew-sabisky-eugenics-contraception-dominic-cummings-downing-street-a9339296.html

(TT bring back the vomiting emoji)! :(

 

 

Apparently, he's now resigned, issuing the requisite "I'm sorry if you were offended by my views" non-apology, in which he complained about "selective quoting".

 

Still, Cummings' appointment of him in the first place and BoJo's refusal to criticize the choice are certainly worrying, to say the least. It's gonna be a bumpy ride.

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BoJo has as bad a picker as Trump. Andrew Sabisky made vile claims about women and sex on Reddit

 

Quote

THE Prime Minister’s newest adviser once claimed it was a woman’s Christian “duty” to have sex with her husband, The National can reveal.

Andrew Sabisky - who resigned last night following days of rows -  made the comments on Reddit, where he seemingly acted as an agony uncle to posters on the site’s popular sex forum, doling out advice on rape fantasies, incest, Christianity, and other subjects.

In one post, from seven years ago, a man explained that his Mormon wife was reluctant to have sex with him and asked for advice.

Under the username thedovelamenting, Sabisky responded by urging him to try to “rewire” her brain “to the point where she no longer, consciously or subconsciously sees a conflict between a good Christian woman and serving you up 39 flavours of slut on command”.

He added: “It ought to be obvious that her wifely duty ought to consist not just of letting you masturbate into her vagina but actively playing her part in building a fantastic sex life with you.

 

"Yes, that might require pushing through some initial mental discomfort but it is simply selfish and unchristian of her not to make the effort.”

Sabisky then urged the man to “take the lead a little bit more”.

He said: “Theologically speaking she is your wife and should submit to you as unto the Lord, so if you want doggy then it is your place to command her to get on her hands and knees and her place to obey.”

He added: “If you want a blow job you should get one because she is your wife and lover … She’s just being selfish really (which isn’t very Christian).”

In another post, he recommended that a 26-year-old man looking to lose his virginity pay “lots of money for a really good hooker”.

When a woman posted about finding “disturbing porn” on her boyfriend’s computer, including erotic fiction about incest, paedophilia and rape, Sabisky told her he didn't “see all that much to worry about here”.

He added: “Fantasies are strange things. Unpredictable, of uncertain origin, hard to figure how they’ll relate to real life. I have a thing for incest erotica myself despite never having had those fantasies relating to my actual family. So long as he’s not actually breaking any laws and is restricting his viewing habits to girls 18 and up I wouldn’t be too squicked.”

He then suggested the woman was at fault for not offering her partner the right “kind of sex”, though he admits he “could be way off there.”

The Reddit posts were deleted soon after The National approached Sabisky for a comment.

Yesterday Downing Street was criticised for refusing to distance themselves from the adviser’s past remarks on eugenics and race.

Sabisky had reportedly suggested black people have lower IQs than white people and claimed compulsory contraception could prevent “creating a permanent underclass”.

The 27-year-old was appointed to the unspecified "contractor" role at the heart of government after responding to an advert placed by Johnson’s chief adviser Dominic Cummings calling for “misfits and weirdos” to come and work at Number 10.

Late on a Monday, Sabisky tweeted that he had quit – though The Sun's political editor, Tom Newton Dunn disputed this account and said he understood the aide had in fact been fired.

Sabisky tweeted: “The media hysteria about my old stuff online is mad but I wanted to help HMG not be a distraction. Accordingly I’ve decided to resign as a contractor. I hope no.10 hires more ppl w/ good geopolitical forecasting track records & that media learn to stop selective quoting

“I know this will disappoint a lot of ppl but I signed up to do real work, not be in the middle of a giant character assassination: if I can’t do the work properly there’s no point, & I have a lot of other things to do w/ my life”.

 

 

I like the bit where he admits to being okay with another man's casual pedophiliac fantasies, but wants to take the media to task for telling people about it.

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6 minutes ago, AlexTr said:

“Theologically speaking she is your wife and should submit to you as unto the Lord, so if you want doggy then it is your place to command her to get on her hands and knees and her place to obey.”

 

It can't get any better than this! I bet BoJo got the same advice :wub::wub::lol::lol:

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2 hours ago, murphaph said:

Aaaand we're back to Daily Express type headlines about "Brussels" (there is no "Brussels" of course. Power in the EU vests in the Council, the member states themselves) rather than addressing the salient point:

 

 

The Agenda is set by the Presidency of the Council which rotates every 6 months.

 

Second half of the year the presidency will be held by Germany which can set the agenda it wishes to pursue.

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1 hour ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

The Agenda is set by the Presidency of the Council which rotates every 6 months.

 

Second half of the year the presidency will be held by Germany which can set the agenda it wishes to pursue.

No single country can determine policy. In "big" things like taxation and FTAs individual member states even have a veto. Austria recently vetoed the proposed Mercosur FTA for example. This flies in the face of the tired old adage that "Brussels and Berlin run the EU".

 

Germany can propose whatever it likes but it needs consensus across the member states to proceed. The EU member states have an order of magnitude more power than say the constituent nations of the UK or states of the US.

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1 hour ago, murphaph said:

No single country can determine policy. In "big" things like taxation and FTAs individual member states even have a veto. Austria recently vetoed the proposed Mercosur FTA for example. This flies in the face of the tired old adage that "Brussels and Berlin run the EU".

 

Germany can propose whatever it likes but it needs consensus across the member states to proceed. The EU member states have an order of magnitude more power than say the constituent nations of the UK or states of the US.

 

You should have a read of this article, It will help you understand EU cohesion.

 

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2020/02/the-eu-is-in-trouble-and-ursula-von-der-leyen-is-the-wrong-person-to-rescue-it/

 

 

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29 minutes ago, murphaph said:

From Wikipedia:

The Spectator is politically conservative.[47] Like its sister publication The Daily Telegraph, The Spectator is generally Atlanticist and Eurosceptic in outlook, favouring close ties with the United States rather than with the European Union, and is supportive of Israel.

 

So not at all biased.

 

Not a man of fact I see.

 

Maybe you can comment on the employment figures, surely this was not supposed to happen.

 

https://www.cityam.com/uk-employment-hits-new-record-high-as-jobless-total-falls/

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Not a big reader, I see. Let me help you (be sure to take plenty of breaks whenever your lips get tired):

 

Quote

Women drove the rise in Britain’s workforce as 150,000 entered employment between October and December to hit a record high of 15.6m women in work.

 

“Employment continues at a record high… however, we’ve yet to see this trend register within household behaviour,” Fidelity’s personal investing director Tom Stevenson said.

 

“In theory, consumers should be feeling more confident in their outlook – yet months of disappointing retail trading figures suggest an unwillingness to spend. This is perhaps unsurprising given high levels of political and economic uncertainty, and only time will tell whether we’re entering a more positive period for the UK economy.”

So households are adding 2nd earners out of necessity and aren't spending any more.

 

Average wages beat 2008 levels for the first time since the Great Recession, but:

Quote

...“Anyone who had to move into a less well-paying job has far more of a mountain to climb to get back to where they were,” she said. “It’s also easier to score a pay rise if you’re in an industry where wages grow faster – like banking – rather than one where they’re more sluggish – like retail.”

 

But the annual rate of wage growth has slowed in recent months from a peak growth rate of 3.9 per cent recorded between May and July 2019. That fell to 3.2 per cent between August and October, and now the rate is less than half that.

 

“Slowing wage growth is a concern as it could trigger a broader slowdown in household spending, a major driver of UK economic growth,” said the British Chambers of Commerce’s head of economics Suren Thiru.

 

“A weak economy, low productivity and high employment costs are limiting increases in pay settlements.”

 

“The bigger than expected slow-down in wage growth to just 2.9 per cent in the three months to December re-kindles speculation that the next move in UK interest rates might be down,” Fidelity’s Stevenson added.

 

Moreover:

Quote

 

Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said:

 

The labour market has been remarkably resilient – which has been good news for UK consumers, but has been bad news for UK productivity given lacklustre growth.

 

Nevertheless, UK-EU relationship uncertainties have far from disappeared while the global economic environment is currently difficult and uncertain, so this may limit the upside for the labour market.

 

 

The economy has been adding jobs out of necessity, likely to deal with future red tape, as evidenced by the decline in productivity, which of course is linked with the slowdown in wage increases. Hardly a glowing report card.

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