Brexit: The fallout

12,047 posts in this topic

22 hours ago, murphaph said:

But Balticus Northern Ireland is IN the United Kingdom and its currency is the pound sterling. Exports there increased. Exports to GB decreased significantly (again). 

 

If the currency being weaker was the driver, then exports to NI would have gone down also. They didn't because NI is expected to remain in the single market while GB will be outside of it.

 

Did you miss this in my post:   

 

"Since the mix of goods and services are different from exporter to exporter, reductions won't be distributed uniformly.  "

 

Depends on the mix of goods and services and the price elasticity of those goods and services + other factors. 

 

Do Irish businessmen actually get rid of customers rather than expanding business?   Weird.

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They are percentages of total exports. If customer X in GB ceases being a customer then the Irish business can put their finite marketing effort into winning customer Y in the UK or customer Z in say Germany. They have been doing the latter. They are not deliberately cutting off their existing UK customers but putting less effort into gaining new ones and instead putting that effort into alternative markets.

 

Irish business has been more focused on gaining customers beyond GB so the percentage of exports to GB has fallen.

 

That's what has happened here. 

 

German exports to the UK have also declined. Germany and Ireland export a fairly different basket of goods.

 

https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2020-01/brexit-exporte-grossbritannien-aussenhandel-wirtschaft

 

German exports to the UK are down by the same amount they are up to the EU!

 

I know you can't admit it that that GB is becoming a less important market for EU companies due to Brexit but that's what's happening.

 

https://www.prepareforbrexit.com/insights/entering-new-markets/

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On 2/14/2020, 8:51:20, murphaph said:

For our resident Brexiteers who believe the US is better to hop into bed with...

https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-cancels-visit-donald-trump-slammed-phone-down-apoplectic-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

France has warned Britain to expect a bruising battle with the EU in post-Brexit trade negotiations.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian predicted the two sides would "rip each other apart" as they strove for advantage in the negotiations.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-51526784

 

great for stability... :(

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Yep. That's what leave means unfortunately. It's going to get very acrimonious very fast.

 

There will certainly be no FTA agreed by year end. Then Johnson really must do or die. He is removing the former remainders and Theresa May deal leavers even, surrounding himself with and end of days cult cabinet, led by Cummings.

 

I didn't bother posting it but Australian-UK relations were also strained last week over Huawei leaks.

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56 minutes ago, murphaph said:

Yep. That's what leave means unfortunately. It's going to get very acrimonious very fast.

 

There will certainly be no FTA agreed by year end. Then Johnson really must do or die. He is removing the former remainders and Theresa May deal leavers even, surrounding himself with and end of days cult cabinet, led by Cummings.

 

I didn't bother posting it but Australian-UK relations were also strained last week over Huawei leaks.

 

How long will it take before other EU countries turn on France?

 

I give it till July.

 

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13 minutes ago, murphaph said:

Why would they do that?

 

 

If I was Belgium or the Netherlands I would not be so happy.

 

Exports to the UK graph

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Ireland is 3 on that list but Irish business is just "getting on with Brexit" and diversifying their markets, simply reducing its exposure to the UK market which has decided to extricate itself from the single market.

 

I suspect Belgium and the Netherlands are experiencing similar.

 

I explained above how this is what is actually happening. EU businesses aren't waiting around to go bust when the UK leaves the transition phase. They are actively expanding their alternative markets.

 

You're essentially repeating the "German cars" line that has been trotted out since even before the referendum. It isn't happening because the single market (even minus GB) is too important to risk weakening.

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21 minutes ago, murphaph said:

 

I suspect Belgium and the Netherlands are experiencing similar.

 

 

Link???

 

Or is this another one of your guesses?

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4 minutes ago, murphaph said:

It's an educated guess based on the fact that Irish and German business is doing this.

 

Would be nice if you could actually state any facts.

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Are you having a laugh? I provided a bunch of links above from the Irish statistics office and Die Zeit!

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1 minute ago, murphaph said:

Are you having a laugh? I provided a bunch of links above from the Irish statistics office and Die Zeit!

 

I am talking about the Netherlands and Belgium.

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Of course because you can only pick at the edges of my argument, which is that EU businesses are finding alternative markets to GB already. GB is becoming a less relevant market for the EU.

 

If it helps it took me 2 minutes to find the Dutch government has a similar Brexit readiness programme as Ireland and also offers financial support to Dutch businesses looking to find alternative markets!

 

Here you go:

https://business.gov.nl/subsidy/brexit-vouchers/

 

Quote: "If your company does business with the United Kingdom and is affected by Brexit, you may be eligible for a Brexit voucher. The voucher is a subsidy to pay for advice on alternative markets"

 

 

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1 hour ago, murphaph said:

Of course because you can only pick at the edges of my argument, which is that EU businesses are finding alternative markets to GB already. GB is becoming a less relevant market for the EU.

 

If it helps it took me 2 minutes to find the Dutch government has a similar Brexit readiness programme as Ireland and also offers financial support to Dutch businesses looking to find alternative markets!

 

Here you go:

https://business.gov.nl/subsidy/brexit-vouchers/

 

Quote: "If your company does business with the United Kingdom and is affected by Brexit, you may be eligible for a Brexit voucher. The voucher is a subsidy to pay for advice on alternative markets"

 

 

 

A voucher?

 

That is your argument.

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35 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

A voucher?

 

That is your argument.

No his argument is that the Dutch govt is encouraging businesses to seek alternative markets to the UK.

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4 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

If I was Belgium or the Netherlands I would not be so happy.

 

Exports to the UK graph

 

 

it should also be noted that about 50 % of UK exports go to the EU

 

I wounder how that will work after 2020 has gone by

 

 

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1 hour ago, Keleth said:

No his argument is that the Dutch govt is encouraging businesses to seek alternative markets to the UK.

What has that got to do with anything?

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1 hour ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

A voucher?

 

That is your argument.

Come on now. A voucher represents real cash money which the Dutch government is spending on advising their exporters on identifying replacement markets. 

 

EU businesses are finding alternative markets to offset the loss of UK (GB) customers post Brexit. Irish and German statistics show this is already in full swing. Perhaps Dutch ones do too but I could not be bothered looking. You are free to do so if you think the Netherlands is not following this trend.

 

You are essentially nitpicking here and as Yesterday correctly points out the UK is far far more dependent on its EU market than any individual EU state is on their UK market. It's about 6 times more dependent on its EU market than Ireland is on its UK market! 

 

Do you believe EU businesses are not diversifying away from their UK markets?

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