Brexit: The fallout

12,224 posts in this topic

1 minute ago, Chris Marston said:

Another referendum would most likely produce another "too close to call" outcome that would not resolve this contested issue. I think remain might win by 52% to 48%.

 

It is also entirely possible that leave would win again.  I know people that have switched sides in both directions, but bearing in mind it seemed completely one sided before the referendum and now it seems from the polls Ive seen that leave is either ahead or very close I see no grounds to be so confident remain would win.  Its possible that minds have changed enough, but thats quite a leap of faith based on previous experience.

 

Leavers feel that they already won and have nothing to gain from indyref2, remainers know that they might finally put a nail in their own corpse if they cannot win.  So both sides are mostly against.

 

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15 minutes ago, zwiebelfisch said:

Leavers feel that they already won and have nothing to gain from indyref2, remainers know that they might finally put a nail in their own corpse if they cannot win.  So both sides are mostly against.

I don't see the remain side be "mostly against" it. I even understand the rational case for a second referendum but it is unlikely to settle the matter – especially if the remain side would win. If leave were to win again, it would be very difficult not to implement whatever would have been defined as "yes, still leave" on the ballot paper. A second referendum would at least spell out to some extent what leave means and thereby make it harder to claim that is means whatever one prefers.

 

@zwiebelfisch See:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-latest-britain-against-leaving-eu-as-poll-of-polls-says-most-now-want-to-stay-a4257476.html

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8 minutes ago, Chris Marston said:

especially if the remain side would win

 

assuming it was a "fair fight", ie there wasnt any jiggery pokery with deal vs no deal vs remain or whatever to split the leave vote, then a remain would give parliament an out and take the wind out of the "people have spoken" sails.  Boris could say, ok look you spoke again and said no I respect that, corbyn could get off his fence and the libdems could claim it as a victory.  Everyone wins. Brexit/ukip continue to poll well but dont stand a chance of forming a government.

 

EDIT: I havent forgoten SNP etc, they of course claim this is further evidence that westminster cannot be trusted (whichever way the vote goes) and want a scotland indyref2.

 

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Certainly interesting manoeuvrers to split the other camps' vote. It is hard to tell if a split of remain votes between Labour and the LibDems would lead to a majority Conservative government despite picking up only 30+% of the votes in a general election.

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There's all this angst in the UK about how a second referendum question would be phrased.

 

It's so simple a child can understand the concept however.

 

You list the real options available to the country which are:

Leave with no deal on date x

Leave under terms of May's deal (or Johnson's if anything comes of the meeting yesterday)

Revoke A50

 

You then put a number beside the options in order of your preference and single transferable vote is used to decide the option most people can live with, even if it wasn't their first choice. It's called instant runoff voting. It's a variant on PR-STV (which is a British invention that the House of Commons tried several times to introduce for Westminster elections in GB but which the House of Lords repeatedly vetoed. It was introduced in Irish Westminster constituencies and remains on good service in the Republic to this day)

 

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2 minutes ago, Chris Marston said:

split of remain votes between Labour and the LibDems would lead to a majority Conservative government

 

 

Im sure Ive said it here before, all remain has to do is somehow get corbyn out of the lead of labour.  Put anyone in his place and labour can win a majority in the next election, claim the whole thing is a mess and needs to be stopped. Job done.

 

 

2 minutes ago, murphaph said:

It's so simple a child can understand the concept however.

 

You miss the one key fact.  It needs to be rigged to get the right result, noone is actually asking how to have a fair election, they are asking how to force through the result they want.

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22 minutes ago, zwiebelfisch said:

a remain would give parliament an out and take the wind out of the "people have spoken" sails.  Boris could say, ok look you spoke again and said no I respect that, corbyn could get off his fence and the libdems could claim it as a victory.  Everyone wins. Brexit/ukip continue to poll well but dont stand a chance of forming a government.

 

I wish I could believe that, but I reckon a remain result in a second referendum could result in anarchy (maybe not literally, but some sort of serious social discontent). The cleanest way out as I see it is a second referendum, with remain on the ballot, but with leave winning and a clear mandate for a preference between a specific deal or a no deal. Nobody could then argue with that result. But the problem would thereafter be as you said:

 

Quote

EDIT: I havent forgoten SNP etc, they of course claim this is further evidence that westminster cannot be trusted (whichever way the vote goes) and want a scotland indyref2.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, murphaph said:

It's so simple a child can understand the concept however.

 

You list the real options available to the country which are:

Leave with no deal on date x

Leave under terms of May's deal (or Johnson's if anything comes of the meeting yesterday)

Revoke A50

 

But that wouldn't be fair with leavers because you clearly divide their votes in two.   A second referendum can be only a binary choice.

 

To make it fair you would then need a third referendum, if leave wins then you ask deal or no deal.

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Alan Turing, Barnes Wallis.  Yeah, they'd be shit in the trenches, especially Turing. 

stanley.jpg

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8 minutes ago, zwiebelfisch said:

You miss the one key fact.  It needs to be rigged to get the right result, noone is actually asking how to have a fair election, they are asking how to force through the result they want.

If that's the case then the UK has much more serious problems than Brexit.

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Contrary to popular belief, it is not all doom and gloom on the Brexit scene.

 

Here's why 1,800 businesses have set up a home in Leeds since the Brexit referendum.

 

"LEEDS ranks among the best places in Britain to start a post-EU referendum business, a study has shown.

 

Analysis by AskTraders found that more than 1,800 businesses have been registered in Leeds since the referendum in 2016, making it the sixth most popular place for start-ups to settle. Leeds was beaten to the top spot by London (46,000), with Birmingham second (3,938), Manchester third (3,709), Bristol fourth (2,558) and Liverpool fifth (1,878). Sheffield came in at 12th with 1,232, while Hull was 23rd with 424.

 

Steve Miley, senior market analyst at www.asktraders.com, said: “What we are seeing here is a significant increase in companies, most likely from Europe, setting up in the UK – in other words, European firms looking to get a foothold in the UK prior to the UK leaving the EU."

 

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/here-s-why-1-800-businesses-have-set-up-a-home-in-leeds-since-the-brexit-referendum-1-10044899

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, White Rose of Yorkshire said:

Contrary to popular belief, it is not all doom and gloom on the Brexit scene.

 

Here's why 1,800 businesses have set up a home in Leeds since the Brexit referendum.

 

"LEEDS ranks among the best places in Britain to start a post-EU referendum business, a study has shown.

 

Analysis by AskTraders found that more than 1,800 businesses have been registered in Leeds since the referendum in 2016, making it the sixth most popular place for start-ups to settle. Leeds was beaten to the top spot by London (46,000), with Birmingham second (3,938), Manchester third (3,709), Bristol fourth (2,558) and Liverpool fifth (1,878). Sheffield came in at 12th with 1,232, while Hull was 23rd with 424.

 

Steve Miley, senior market analyst at www.asktraders.com, said: “What we are seeing here is a significant increase in companies, most likely from Europe, setting up in the UK – in other words, European firms looking to get a foothold in the UK prior to the UK leaving the EU."

 

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/business/here-s-why-1-800-businesses-have-set-up-a-home-in-leeds-since-the-brexit-referendum-1-10044899

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course non-UK business will want to continue doing business in the UK and they are taking measures for it.   What do you expect? that non-UK products and services disappear from the UK market completely after Brexit?

 

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6 minutes ago, Krieg said:

 

But that wouldn't be fair with leavers because you clearly divide their votes in two.   A second referendum can be only a binary choice.

 

To make it fair you would then need a third referendum, if leave wins then you ask deal or no deal.

It doesn't divide their vote really.

 

The key is in the name single transferable vote.

 

If I am a leaver and I vote 1) leave with no deal 2) leave with a deal and give no preference to remain (I am not obliged to under PR-STV) then if one of my options is eliminated after the first count then my 2nd preference will be carried over to the next round of counting as if it was my first preference in that round.

 

If "Leave somehow" is more popular than remain then one of the Leave options will definitely go through to the second round, perhaps with the other leave option, perhaps with the remain option but crucially the 2 preferences for the eliminated option will be carried over to the next round too and as leavers are unlikely to give "remain" any preference, the 2nd preferences from the eliminated leave option are not going to go to the remain option. They may well go to the other leave option however. If Leave somehow is more popular than remain then remain would lose to one of the leave options.

 

It's the system Ireland uses to elect the president.

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35 minutes ago, theGman said:

I wish I could believe that, but I reckon a remain result in a second referendum could result in anarchy (maybe not literally, but some sort of serious social discontent).

 

Some forms of anarchy are also predicted when the food and drug supplies are too low and hospitals have to close down, etc. after a no deal Brexit.

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37 minutes ago, Krieg said:

To make it fair you would then need a third referendum, if leave wins then you ask deal or no deal.

A third referendum would have to settle the "what kind of leave" question. Canada+, Norway+, Labour+ etc. ;)

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5 hours ago, kiplette said:

 

What a strange comment.

 

One of the great things about western democracy is that minority views can, within limits, demonstrate and shout loud.

 

Are you suggesting that a better arrangement is that once a vote has taken place, everyone has to pretend they agree with the outcome? Why? Why would you want to live in such a system? 

 

Really weird.

Ok, I'll put it this way: what are these protesters trying to achieve exactly? It looks like they're trying to reverse Brexit, even though the majority of voters voted for it. In other words, it looks like they are trying to thwart the democratic will of the people. Isn't there something a bit iffy about that? It would be like protesting against the result of a free and fair election.

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39 minutes ago, BMurphy said:

Ok, I'll put it this way: what are these protesters trying to achieve exactly? It looks like they're trying to reverse Brexit, even though the majority of voters voted for it. In other words, it looks like they are trying to thwart the democratic will of the people. Isn't there something a bit iffy about that? It would be like protesting against the result of a free and fair election.

 

It wasn't an election. It was an advisory referendum. And yes the protesters are trying to reverse Brexit, in the same way as you'd want to stop someone from jumping off a bridge even if they have freely chosen and exercised their democratic right to climb onto the railing. Brexit voters may not think that their vote will harm them and everyone else in the UK, but that's what anti-Brexiters believe.

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1 hour ago, BMurphy said:

Ok, I'll put it this way: what are these protesters trying to achieve exactly? It looks like they're trying to reverse Brexit, even though the majority of voters voted for it. In other words, it looks like they are trying to thwart the democratic will of the people. Isn't there something a bit iffy about that? It would be like protesting against the result of a free and fair election.

People protest against every election at the next one insofar as they campaign for the losing side from the last one.

 

Brexit has not turned out the way it was promised so why on earth is there such a big problem asking the people again?

 

If we applied your logic to Ireland, divorce which was banned in the 1937 constitution and which the people refused to legalise in the 1986 referendum would still be illegal today because it was the will of the people in 1986. Except by 1995 the people had changed their minds and voted to remove the constitutional ban on divorce. 

 

Similarly with abortion being made illegal in the constitution and legalised again in 1983 and 2018 respectively.

 

 

 

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Nissan have been much more forthright in their recent statement. If Brexit happens and there's a 10% tariff on their cars being exported to the EU then that whole business model collapses. The margins aren't there. Nissan would be losing 5% on every car sold unless they simply jacked the prices up to compensate but a Nissan is easily substitutable. It is a commodity product. Nissan Sunderland will close if there is a hard Brexit.

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5 hours ago, murphaph said:

If that's the case then the UK has much more serious problems than Brexit.

 

Pretty much where "we" are right now. 

 

This is pretty much why the ongoing Stormont thing is such a concern. When you take the current difficulties in this broader context then you can only fear the worst. Pretty shitty.

 

The people of both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland deserve better than this.

 

 

 

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