Brexit: The fallout

12,046 posts in this topic

17 minutes ago, Chris Marston said:

As in Germany, the natives often don't fancy working, for example, as cleaners. It would be ironic if vote leave voters would be forced into such jobs because of lack of migrant workers.

 

Nobody can force anybody to work if they don't want to.  If it's not possible anymore to man jobs like cleaning or picking lettuce etc. the employers will apply for work permits for foreigners to come and do those jobs.  If work permits are not granted, the employers will either have to make the jobs more attractive or they will have to close shop.

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2 minutes ago, LeonG said:

 

Nobody can force anybody to work if they don't want to.  If it's not possible anymore to man jobs like cleaning or picking lettuce etc. the employers will apply for work permits for foreigners to come and do those jobs.  If work permits are not granted, the employers will either have to make the jobs more attractive or they will have to close shop.

Indeed. More red tape for employers and potential non-British employees. Filing paperwork imposes costs. If employers would have to pay more to motivate Brits to pick lettuce, they might become uncompetitive and indeed have to close shop. In the agro sector this would increase dependence on imports.

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3 minutes ago, Chris Marston said:

Indeed. More red tape for employers and potential non-British employees. Filing paperwork imposes costs. If employers would have to pay more to motivate Brits to pick lettuce, they might become uncompetitive and indeed have to close shop. In the agro sector this would increase dependence on imports.

 

Red tape is not only expensive for employers; it also discourages workers. If you had to choose between working in a country where you have to keep jumping through hoops in order to have the right to stay and work legally, and another one where those rights are automatic, which one would you choose? The former would have to sweeten the deal for me with higher pay. Non-EU immigrants are often put through hell to by the various Ausländerbehörden in Germany, and the Home Office in the UK is not any nicer. Who wants to deal with that crap?

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@Smaug Fair point.

 

It seems the earning potential in many Eastern European countries is so low that UK employers currently do not have to sweeten any deal though. We will see whether this might change through Brexit.

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1 hour ago, Chris Marston said:

@Smaug Fair point.

 

It seems the earning potential in many Eastern European countries is so low that UK employers currently do not have to sweeten any deal though. We will see whether this might change through Brexit.

 

There has been net migration of employees from Eastern Europe.  Because of the fall in the value of the pound, other EU countries are now more attractive for work.  Plus all the "forrinners go home" stuff probably eased their decision.

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Boris Johnson will seek a Brexit extension from the EU if no withdrawal deal is reached by 19 October, government documents say.

 

The revelation in a Scottish court appears to be a direct contradiction of what the prime minister has said in public, insisting there would be no further delay and that the UK would leave the bloc on 31 October, with or without an agreement.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/pm-will-seek-brexit-extension-if-no-deal-agreed-by-19-october-11827149

 

 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, fraufruit said:

What does he plan to compromise on during the extension? Why doesn't he do that now?

Nothing, of course. Compromise is for losers. It's gonna be BoJo's way or the highway.

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1 hour ago, White Rose of Yorkshire said:

Boris Johnson will seek a Brexit extension from the EU if no withdrawal deal is reached by 19 October, government documents say.

 

The revelation in a Scottish court appears to be a direct contradiction of what the prime minister has said in public, insisting there would be no further delay and that the UK would leave the bloc on 31 October, with or without an agreement.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/pm-will-seek-brexit-extension-if-no-deal-agreed-by-19-october-11827149

 

I don't think it's his choice to delay, it looks like the courts have told him that if there is no deal by 19th October he must request a delay for Article 50

Brexit: Boris Johnson ‘to request delay from EU if he fails to strike deal by October 19’, court hears

 

Quote

Boris Johnson has accepted he will request Article 50 is extended if he fails to reach a new Brexit deal with the EU by 19 October, a Scottish court has been told by lawyers challenging the government.

 

Government documents submitted to the Court of Session say the prime minister will send a letter asking for an extension to article 50 – despite Mr Johnson’s repeated insistence that he will never delay Brexit.

 

The revelation emerged as the prime minister faced another legal challenge in Scotland’s highest court, where anti-Brexit petitioners are seeking an order to force him to comply with the law to ask for a delay if he has not secured a deal with Brussels.

 

The case is being brought by SNP MP Joanna Cherry and barrister Jolyon Maugham – the same team behind the Supreme Court case that found Mr Johnson’s prorogation order was unlawful – along with millionaire environmentalist businessman Vince Dale.

 

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Johnson has (surprise, surprise) been lying about not seeking an extension. He couldn't lie straight in bed.

 

By the way BMurphy, are you not enjoying freedom of movement in Germany? Why would you be so happy to see it denied to young Brits?

 

Also you're wrong about Australia. They allow FoM for kiwis.

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I am glad my London-born daughter, Spanish mother, is in a position not to worry about her continuing stay and job in Amsterdam - after a 4 year stint in Ireland -thanks to her Spanish passport. 

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20 hours ago, French bean said:

Now still being of employable age I had to take out German Health Insurance and my wife did so first of all as she was employed here almost straight away. Whilst looking at these things and naturally looking at staying here permanently we looked at req'd contributions when we retire. For us it works out at around 150 € per month each because of all the years we paid NI in the UK. Now for those who are working here and are having to pay into the German health system, it may be worth contacting your provider to see how much it will be at retirement and not relying on the NHS because as we already know, BoJo and Co. cannot be trusted.

But if you've paid for lots of years nat.ins. /taxes into the UK system, you shouldn't have to pay a cent.

You've already paid for your healthcare in old age. Imagine the uproar if UK pensioners were told they had to

make monthly payments for their NHS cover? Having paid contributions all their working lives? I wouldn't fancy being the minister in charge. The trouble is, we're all too nice about it and the Government know it.  I've worked in local government and know how politicians think. A whole bunch of irate residents/ taxpayers and they jump into action. A couple of doddery well meaning old duffers, and they get fobbed off. What's right or wrong doesn't come into it.

 

The other thing I don't understand. The Government keep spinning this line that they can't get the EU state authorities to accept their payments to cover UK nationals healthcare. If that really is true (and why would the EU authorities not wish to accept payments, if the end users would be charged anyway),  what's preventng the S1 pensioners etc. being reimbursed direct. It need not involve the EU states at all. 

 

It just looks to me as an easy cost saving measure to cover up their failure to plan this through. We are in effect helping to bail out their cock up. So that minister Gove can say all No Deal measures are in hand. 

 

As for the Embassy Info meetings, I'll go along to the Hamburg one, but I'm not expecting alot. The Embassy are only mouthpieces for the Government. If they came up with a critical tone, they'd  soon be shifted sideways. Its a low cost exercise on their part. Do a bit of PR on listening to what expats say, and then tell them they have to sort it out themselves.   

 

 

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18 minutes ago, alexunterwegs said:

But if you've paid for lots of years nat.ins. /taxes into the UK system, you shouldn't have to pay a cent.

 

But we are in Germany which has an Insurance based care system and not in the UK. So if you pay here already as part of your employee contributions you will be expected to pay in retirement just like all the Germans do. I'm sure Panda Munich can explain things better than me.

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22 minutes ago, French bean said:

But we are in Germany which has an Insurance based care system and not in the UK. So if you pay here already as part of your employee contributions you will be expected to pay in retirement just like all the Germans do. I'm sure Panda Munich can explain things better than me.

22 hours ago, French bean said:

Now still being of employable age I had to take out German Health Insurance and my wife did so first of all as she was employed here almost straight away. Whilst looking at these things and naturally looking at staying here permanently we looked at req'd contributions when we retire. For us it works out at around 150 € per month each because of all the years we paid NI in the UK. Now for those who are working here and are having to pay into the German health system, it may be worth contacting your provider to see how much it will be at retirement and not relying on the NHS because as we already know, BoJo and Co. cannot be trusted.

 

Sorry,  I overlooked your point that you last made contributions into the German insurance system, in which case  those of us completly dependant on our S1 form, are in a different category. 

 

 

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Re: Healthcare

I read a while ago that May had approached Merkel to get a deal for expats. Apparently, Merkel wanted to...think about it. Nothing happened. I guess the EU does not yet think the WA is totally dead, and do not want the UK making bilateral agreements with France or Spain et al.  

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8 minutes ago, Bomo said:

Re: Healthcare

I read a while ago that May had approached Merkel to get a deal for expats. Apparently, Merkel wanted to...think about it. Nothing happened. I guess the EU does not yet think the WA is totally dead, and do not want the UK making bilateral agreements with France or Spain et al.  

I think the EU want to stop the UK just doing a 'pick and choose' which bits they like of the WA. That's why they were insistent on the WA being agreed up front before getting onto a new trade agreement. 

 

But I still don't get the bit about EU states preventing UK Departments covering healthcare for their own pensioners.  If the KK's are going to charge the end users anyway, they'd still be covering their costs. All it does, is gets S1 recipients backs up. And it still doesn't stop the UK Department refunding the S1 pensioners direct. 

To me, its just an easy get out for the UK Government. 

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I'm not actually sure whether the NHS Business Services Authority letter is even granting S1 recipients 6 months cover after Brexit. 

 

On my letter it states, "if your local healthcare system does not cover your cost while you are applying for a local scheme, the UK will also cover this period."

 

The way I read that is, if you are a good boy and get yourself signed up to a new health insurance scheme on Day 1, then you are immediately laible. 

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5 hours ago, White Rose of Yorkshire said:

Boris Johnson will seek a Brexit extension from the EU if no withdrawal deal is reached by 19 October, government documents say.

 

The revelation in a Scottish court appears to be a direct contradiction of what the prime minister has said in public, insisting there would be no further delay and that the UK would leave the bloc on 31 October, with or without an agreement.

 

https://news.sky.com/story/pm-will-seek-brexit-extension-if-no-deal-agreed-by-19-october-11827149

 

He announced this to try and stop an injunction against him, because he has been advised that vocalising his gung ho attittude about not obeying the Benn Act would get him in trouble.  He is trying to find a way to wriggle round the Benn act without actually breaking the law.  

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7 hours ago, LeonG said:

 

Nobody can force anybody to work if they don't want to.  If it's not possible anymore to man jobs like cleaning or picking lettuce etc. the employers will apply for work permits for foreigners to come and do those jobs.  If work permits are not granted, the employers will either have to make the jobs more attractive or they will have to close shop.

This 1000 times.

We know most of the eu immigrants do the menial work so if they`re gone its highly unlikely that Brits are going to be queuing up to do them for the low wages.

So they`ll end up putting the wages up to make them more attractive or pay for work permits etc.

If they put the wages up then they`ll also have to put up the wages of the others in the business.

Now tell me 1 business that is going to swallow this cost without passing it on to the end consumer.

So we could end up with everyone earning twice the amount they used to but it`s only going to be worth half as much as it was because everything (I can`t think of a business that doesn`t employ people doing menial jobs) is going to be twice as expensive as it used to be.

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