Brexit: The fallout

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Looks like the BAFO gauntlet has been laid -

 

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The U.K. offered the European Union a proposed last-minute Brexit deal on Wednesday that it said represents a realistic compromise for both sides, as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged the bloc to hold “rapid negotiations towards a solution” after years of wrangling.

With Britain due to leave the bloc at the end of this month, Johnson said in a letter to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker that not reaching a deal would be “a failure of statecraft for which we would all be responsible.” He did not mention that the EU and the U.K. did reach a deal in 2018 _ only for it to be rejected, three times, by Britain’s Parliament.

 

 

the rest

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36 minutes ago, dstanners said:

 It seems to me that whilst the "right"/ERG-types can communicate "Project Fear" or "No Deal", the difficulty for the moderate parties is finding and communicating an equally simple counter-argument.

 

Initially, it was arogance.  The whole remain project knew it was going to win and sneered at the swivel eyed loons and fruitcakes at the political perifery who stood no chance, made a few ominous "project fear" predictions that the uk would become an economic backwater along north korean lines and rocked off to Islington for a glass of chapagne and a campaign well won. 

 

Since the referendum the situation has changed.  Again the main problem has been arogance, an assumption that the referendum result was an anomoly and that because of the following it isnt really the will of the people:

 

* Russian bots/facebook

* Your granny voted leave, but she is dead now

* People didnt know what they voted for

 

Since everone knew that it was some kind of statistical quirk and anyway your grandparents are dead now, we just need a rerun to get the result we want.  So what we have had is pretty much a single dogmatic "we need a peoples referendum" with the full and confident view it would win, so well, no need to bother with a proper campaign.

 

What now?  It turns out that support for leave is still strong, at least strong enough to worry the remain side, so its an 11th hour "oh shit, erm...  whan we said we wanted a referendum we meant, erm...".

 

All in all this is a textbook case study in political lazyness driven by an unshakeable view that we will win so dont bother.  Toss in a few demeaning acusations that "you are all racists" or "too stupid to know whats good for you" to ensure a high turnout of the people you offended and its a textbook political mistake.

 

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53 minutes ago, zwiebelfisch said:

All in all this is a textbook case study in political lazyness driven by an unshakeable view that we will win so dont bother.  Toss in a few demeaning acusations that "you are all racists" or "too stupid to know whats good for you" to ensure a high turnout of the people you offended and its a textbook political mistake.

 

I am persuaded by Steven McKevitt's argument that it was the emotional brand communication by Vote Leave that won it. And yes, another referendum might not change much because rational arguments are not effective against an emotional commitment to "taking back control". Who doesn't want to be in control? 

 

I highly recommend:

McKevitt, S. (2018, December 21). How politicians tried to sell Brexit to us. Retrieved from OUPblog website: https://blog.oup.com/2018/12/how-politicians-tried-to-sell-brexit/
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Voter's who voted leave often claim they feel 'shackled' by the EU and want the opportunity to sign trade agreements with the rest of the world. It is interesting to note in 2018 that Germany, Netherlands, France and Italy exported more than the UK. They all achieved this from within the EU. Why the rush to leave?


1. China
2. USA
3. Germany
4. Japan
5. South Korea
6. Netherlands
7. Hong Kong
8. France
9. Italy
10. UK

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Very good points, zwiebelfisch. My impression is that Remain side, even now, is very complacent and suspect that they haven't done enough to win people over, even if there were to be another referendum.

 

1 hour ago, Chris Marston said:

I am persuaded by Steven McKevitt's argument that it was the emotional brand communication by Vote Leave that won it. And yes, another referendum might not change much because rational arguments are not effective against an emotional commitment to "taking back control". Who doesn't want to be in control? 

 

I highly recommend:

McKevitt, S. (2018, December 21). How politicians tried to sell Brexit to us. Retrieved from OUPblog website: https://blog.oup.com/2018/12/how-politicians-tried-to-sell-brexit/

 

That's a very interesting article. That question "who doesn't want to be in control?" had occurred to me too. I think it was a very clever slogan. I actually wondered at the time if an attempt was being made to brainwash people and use a form of hypnotic suggestion, the Leave campaigners said "control"/"take control"/"take back control" so often during their TV appearances. I remember watching Michael Gove's one-man BBC Question Time session and actually keeping a tally of the number of times he said those words. In the 45 minutes of the programme, it was multiple times, though I can't remember how often now.

I have also wondered if the "back" in "take back control" was inserted to tap into or even incite xenophobia, especially when immigration was made into such a big issue during the campaign. You take back control from someone and foreigners in Brussels and even at home seem likely suspects.

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2 hours ago, zwiebelfisch said:

All in all this is a textbook case study in political lazyness driven by an unshakeable view that we will win so dont bother.  Toss in a few demeaning acusations that "you are all racists" or "too stupid to know whats good for you" to ensure a high turnout of the people you offended and its a textbook political mistake.

 

 

Yes, and Leave certainly tried harder to get the spook out. It's always somewhat harder to defend the status quo while Leave could promise the moon. (Although personally, I think most people are fairly skeptical of political campaign promises these days -- or is that just me?)

 

Of course, Brexit was then and still is a farce. Britain will be a laughing stock for a generation, and deep fissures have been created in society. It will take more than the next election to heal. For me, the biggest blow was always that the EU loses its British counterbalance.

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13 minutes ago, Lorelei said:

I actually wondered at the time if an attempt was being made to brainwash people and use a form of hypnotic suggestion, 

 

Yes, of course. This is political campaigning 101. 

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19 minutes ago, Lorelei said:

I have also wondered if the "back" in "take back control" was inserted to tap into or even incite xenophobia, especially when immigration was made into such a big issue during the campaign. You take back control from someone and foreigners in Brussels and even at home seem likely suspects.

The "back" is a bit like "great again" implying it is not so great right now. As an empty referent it can mean anything people want to mean it. Be it the return to good old Englishness, the British Empire or whatever. The same holds true for "Global Britain". It just sounds good but is empty. It probably even resonates with xenophobes who might interpret it as strong and dominant Britain.

 

I also think that the Leave campaigners were and are much better to repeat simple and empty messages, which exactly for these reasons resonate with a wide range of people.

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NHS S1

Called the NHS BSA line this morning and they confirmed that they will pay for 6 months healthcare from Nov 1st. When I asked how would that work in practice, he said take your S1 along to the - in my case- AOK and talk to them. 

 

Not sure it will be as painless as he suggests! However, he did confirm what John G mentioned in his post...that the UK is currently in negotiations with Germany for a longer period of cover.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Just now, Bomo said:

the UK is currently in negotiations with Germany for a longer period of cover.

What negotiations? It's about the UK providing a service to its citizens abroad. Either they will continue to pay for cover or they won't. The country they live in is irrelevant.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, El Jeffo said:

What negotiations? It's about the UK providing a service to its citizens abroad. Either they will continue to pay for cover or they won't. The country they live in is irrelevant.

 

 

 

Ahh, but maybe the darling Brexiteers don't want to fund the healthcare of the EU citizens living in the UK. All those poor Polish fellas they seem to hate so much will get care from the NHS.

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People who work in the respective country pay their own way through their tax or social insurance contributions. We're talking about pensioners here (or possibly posted workers).

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32 minutes ago, AlexTr said:

 

Ahh, but maybe the darling Brexiteers don't want to fund the healthcare of the EU citizens living in the UK. All those poor Polish fellas they seem to hate so much will get care from the NHS.

And don't forget that Farage in particular as well as many Tories want to dismantle the NHS and privatise healthcare in Britain so anything that reduces peoples dependency or belief in a state run health system is good as far as they are concerned.

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Court hearing could decide if Boris Johnson is jailed for no-deal Brexit

 

Quote

A date has been set for the hearing of a case in Scotland's highest court which could decide if Boris Johnson can be imprisoned for pursuing a no-deal Brexit.

The case, which has been brought forward by English lawyer Jo Maugham, businessman Dale Vince and SNP MP Jonna Cherry, looks set to take place on Friday 4th October.

The three of them are petitioning the court to consider fining or imprisonining the prime minister if he disregards the "safeguard act" - referred to as the Benn act - which requires him to seek a Brexit extension.

It is running alongside another case from Maugham, Vince and Cherry which is asking the courts to sign a letter to the European leaders requesting the extension in the event Boris Johnson fails to do so.

Lord Pentland has asked the government to give a response to the petitioners within 48 hours before a court hearing on Friday at 11am.

A separate hearing will take place in the Inner House of the Court of Session next week.

 

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Meanwhile, the website on Mallorca for making local appointments with the municipality is offline and nobody knows when it will be back online. Basically, the Spanish have no clue how to handle all kinds of applications by British residents living on the island due to Brexit. All other nationalities who having nothing to do with Brexit have to be patient.

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20 minutes ago, Chris Marston said:

Does anyone know on which basis a PM could be fined or jailed for not complying with the Benn act?

Bad hairstyle could be one reason.

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27 minutes ago, Chris Marston said:

Does anyone know on which basis a PM could be fined or jailed for not complying with the Benn act?

 

Misconduct in public office or misfaence.

 

So if he deliberately seeks to break the law, rather than find a creative way around it or loophole, that would be disconduct.

 

He is actually recorded as saying he will not obey the law, as he does not want a delay. 

 

Trying to find link.

 

https://davidallengreen.com/2019/09/what-if-the-prime-minister-deliberately-broke-the-law-over-extending-article-50/

 

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I see that on Oct 10th there is one of these FCO Brexit meetings in Frankfurt, I think I'll try and get a ticket.

 

After the description of the most recent FCO event, I wonder if anyone from DExEU is even going to turn up this time.

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