Brexit: The fallout

10,865 posts in this topic

4 minutes ago, zwiebelfisch said:

...

We have known since 2016 that it was the working classes that voted out (surely you remember the middle class sneering about how university towns voted remain whilst the uneducated peasants voted out?).  I know there was an age element too, but we cannot deny that the stereotypical working man in the north voted out.

...

 

That this demographic is in favour of leaving is not a surprise.

 

But it is interesting to hear that they will actually go against their traditions and beliefs and vote Tory.  Of course this is what Johnson wants and needs in order to get a majority.

 

Corbyn  is popular in certain circles, he was after all elected by party members (even excluding the "new" members who signed up just to vote it is estimated that he would have won).  It is just that he is a bit extreme for the "centre" and hence a lot of people feel it is unlikely that they would vote for him without which he cannot become PM.

 

 

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58 minutes ago, dj_jay_smith said:

I watched the BBC news last night when the interviewed some people (in Crewe) and many were saying "I've voted labour all my life...", "my family has voted labour for generations..." but they will vote Tory for the first time because they want to leave the EU.  And some which are against, said they would not vote labour because of Corbyn!

 

I saw this too. It got me thinking about this...

 

23 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Remainers calling for a new vote may well wish they had not done so in the end.

 

But the new vote that we are talking about here is not a referendum. That's the crucial difference. I believe a new referendum would result in remain...or at the very least, very close...which is useless to Johnson.

 

The dynamics are interesting. Labour voters turning Tory just to get Brexit done. Where would disenfranchised Tory voters go? Nobody seems to like Corbyn. Lib Dems are the only true remainer party. Would a vote for the Greens be a wasted vote (in the context of Brexit). Farage would unfortunately play a crucial role. It would be a fucking mess.

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2 minutes ago, theGman said:

... Where would disenfranchised Tory voters go? Nobody seems to like Corbyn. Lib Dems are the only true remainer party. Would a vote for the Greens be a wasted vote (in the context of Brexit). Farage would unfortunately play a crucial role. It would be a fucking mess.

 

 

Yes I have been wondering that as well.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, theGman said:

 

 

The dynamics are interesting. Labour voters turning Tory just to get Brexit done. Where would disenfranchised Tory voters go? Nobody seems to like Corbyn. Lib Dems are the only true remainer party. Would a vote for the Greens be a wasted vote (in the context of Brexit). Farage would unfortunately play a crucial role. It would be a fucking mess.

 

Just saw this article.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-49592410

 

Nearly 200,000 people have applied to register to vote in just 72 hours, and more than half of them are under 35.

 

Also,

 

"We estimate that a third of 18-24 year-olds are not correctly registered, or missing entirely from the register," says Dr Toby James, a professor of politics and public policy at the University of East Anglia.

 

Too early to say, but if the age group 18-24 gets its act together, then the Tories could be in big trouble.

 

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Voters who are keen on remaining, and who cannot accept Corbyn  will go to the Libdems , like most of the MP's have done.

 

But I still think Tory + BREXIT party are most likely to get a majority at the next election, Voters in the UK - just want this issue over, they are sick of hearing about it - and from what I hear from BBC, SKY etc, most people want the referendum result honored, which despite the lies on both sides - seems reasonable to them.

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The Tories and Brexit party might split the vote in some places.  They are basically both fighting for Brexit, just one is no-deal all out and the other is no-deal if we must.

 

I did wonder if however if people might then choose to vote Tory rather than Brexit Party, because they think Tory is more likely to get in power and will anyway deliver what they want.

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19 minutes ago, yesterday said:

 

But I still think Tory + BREXIT party are most likely to get a majority at the next election, Voters in the UK - just want this issue over, they are sick of hearing about it - and from what I hear from BBC, SKY etc, most people want the referendum result honored, which despite the lies on both sides - seems reasonable to them.

 

I have heard a lot about this. Unless there is a pact the Brexit party will split the Tory vote (Brecon by election as an example)

 

The first past the post election method makes it extremely difficult to win seats for the Brexit party. The UK independence party at its peak was constantly polling polling at over 10% but only ever won one seat.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, dj_jay_smith said:

The Tories and Brexit party might split the vote in some places.  They are basically both fighting for Brexit, just one is no-deal all out and the other is no-deal if we must.

 

Farage has already said he'll make a pact with Johnson if he promises a no deal exit...which I believe he will do. So that will unite all leave voters.

 

I fear remain voters will then be split between Libs, Labour and Greens.

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3 minutes ago, theGman said:

 

Farage has already said he'll make a pact with Johnson if he promises a no deal exit...which I believe he will do. So that will unite all leave voters.

 

Extremely risky.

 

Tories would lose all their seats in Scotland, London and the South East.

 

Would they gain enough in "Middle England" to compensate?

 

Would Labor voters who have never voted Tory ever be willing to switch over Brexit?

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28 minutes ago, yesterday said:

Voters in the UK - just want this issue over, they are sick of hearing about it - and from what I hear from BBC, SKY etc, most people want the referendum result honored, which despite the lies on both sides - seems reasonable to them.

 

I met my first IRL Brexiteer in a marina the other day. She was from London. She said almost the exact same thing, "We just want it over and done." When I told her that I know many people from the UK that live in Germany and that they aren't happy about leaving she said, "All they have to do is get their German passports. They've had 3 yrs. to do it." So that is how simple some Brexiteers think it is for expats. 

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Just goes to show that Goebbels was right.

 

5d7219c3cd6dc_goebbelsquote1.jpg.d928327

 

Will of the people.

WILL OF THE PEOPLE.

WILL OF THE PEOPLE.

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The extent of Russian-backed fraud means the referendum is invalid

 

Quote

Four separate reports have fatally undermined the Brexit vote, argues Ewan McGaughey (King’s College London). They show how Russia used the Leave campaigns, official and unofficial, to sway the referendum. A case soon to be heard in the High Court will argue that the result should consequently be deemed void.

 

Four reports from the US and UK on the Brexit poll have damaged the legitimacy of the vote. They documented the Kremlin-backed cyber-war, the harvesting of UK voters’ personal data, criminal overspending, and how the biggest donation to Brexit, £8.4m by Arron Banks, may not have come from the UK. (Banks denies his money came from a Russian goldmine, but failed to sue those who said he ‘colluded w/ Russians to deliver #Brexit’, and Banks’ lawyers dropped him.). Now a legal case is listed for 7 December to declare Brexit void, and nullify notification of article 50. It is being led by two QCs against the Prime Minister. The campaign for a ‘People’s Vote’ on the actual deal – not a mystery Brexit prize – is also gathering strength. So after four reports, is a funeral for Brexit coming soon?

 

The reports make compelling viewing. First, in January 2018 a US Senate minority committee documented how ‘Putin’s Asymmetric Assault on Democracy’ in the UK was coming ‘into sharper focus’. It said this was ‘all the more stunning given the innate resilience within British society to the Kremlin’s anti-democratic agenda.’ Before he quit the Foreign Office on 9 July, Boris Johnson told a Commons committee he hadn’t seen ‘a sausage’ of evidence for Russian interference in Brexit. That appears to have been as truthful as a certain bus.

 

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1 hour ago, yesterday said:

Voters in the UK - just want this issue over, they are sick of hearing about it - and from what I hear from BBC, SKY etc, most people want the referendum result honored, which despite the lies on both sides - seems reasonable to them.

The BBC & Sky are very economical with the truth, the remainers far outnumber leavers and they are fighting to get article 50 revoked

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1 hour ago, theGman said:

 

Farage has already said he'll make a pact with Johnson if he promises a no deal exit...which I believe he will do. So that will unite all leave voters.

 

I fear remain voters will then be split between Libs, Labour and Greens.

 

I don't think they will make a pact.

 

The Brexit Party want to hear "we leave with no deal", but "The Johnson" has always said "we prefer a deal, but will leave 31st October with or without one" which basically means "I am doing my best, but there is a limit".  Most Brits would think this is reasonable, and he is more likely to get more votes.  Whereas "we leave with no deal" will push too many people away from him and I think that he would rather try to convince hardened Brexiters that he is the right choice rather than trying to convince the middle ground to become Brexiters.

 

 

 

 

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BoJo has a real problem.

 

He will try again on Monday with the fixed term Parliament act (needs 2/3 majority), however with Labour and the SNP saying no it won`t get through.

 

His other option is to go through an act of Parliament (needs just a majority) which in itself is risky. This is amendable so if Labour, SNP and Lib Dems decide to amend it and drop the voting age to 16, the Tories will have a huge problem and this could very well change the balance and dynamics of Brexit.

 

I am starting to think his only option is to have a Vote of Confidence in himself.

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