Brexit: The fallout

10,897 posts in this topic

9 hours ago, RenegadeFurther said:

News from this morning, all over the UK press is that Johnson is going to suspend Parliament.

 

What an attack on democracy.

 

Why is this not viewed as a negotiating tactic rather than a substantial move?   Is it possible that Boris has just called the rest of the players' bluffs?

 

Based on meetings with Merkel and Macron last week, it seemed that they were ready to deal as long as the UK made all the concessions.    In my opinion, Germany to a huge extent and France to a lesser extent will be hurt severely if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal.    Maybe they will be a bit more cooperative.

 

The UK government has had 3 years to get a deal worked out and it hasn't.    Maybe they will panic and work out the most important details given that the deadline might actually be real rather than an opportunity to negotiate an extension.  

 

 

 

 

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For the benefit of the doubt to be given here, one would have to believe that Johnson is a principled actor operating in good faith. Where one side has demonstrated shockingly transparent and fact-supported honesty, Johnson has used every chance to twist speech into pound symbol shaped balloon animals which he then tries to stuff into his pockets. Anyone who thinks to engage this lying, buffoonish halfwit in good faith has opted for a fool's errand. The tactic in dealing with lying, grifting con men is to resoundly show them for what they are and ensure that social rejection, financial ruin, and infamy leading to frequent milkshake showers and slugs to the noggin arrive quickly...and the same for his comrades, supporters, and enablers. Both sides are not bad. One is.

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37 minutes ago, balticus said:

 

Based on meetings with Merkel and Macron last week, it seemed that they were ready to deal as long as the UK made all the concessions.    In my opinion, Germany to a huge extent and France to a lesser extent will be hurt severely if the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal.    Maybe they will be a bit more cooperative.

 

The UK government has had 3 years to get a deal worked out and it hasn't.    Maybe they will panic and work out the most important details given that the deadline might actually be real rather than an opportunity to negotiate an extension.  

 

 

 

 

 

If the Anti No Deal Brexit team have the numbers (we find out next week), does today's announcement really matter?

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Just now, RenegadeFurther said:

 

If the Anti No Deal Brexit team have the numbers (we find out next week), does today's announcement really matter?

 

If they have the numbers, how will things play out between now and end of October (in your opinion/guess) ?   TIA

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Just now, balticus said:

 

If they have the numbers, how will things play out between now and end of October (in your opinion/guess) ?   TIA

 

I think the speaker will allow Standing Order 24 next week (emergency debate), and the controversial part I think the speaker will allow it to be amendable (should be on neutral terms but up for interpretation). 

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4 minutes ago, RenegadeFurther said:

 

I think the speaker will allow Standing Order 24 next week (emergency debate), and the controversial part I think the speaker will allow it to be amendable (should be on neutral terms but up for interpretation). 

 

Sorry to ask basic questions but are the current paths roughly:

 

1.  crash out with no deal (unless blocked by the anti-no-dealers)

2.  close all the gaps in the current agreement before end of October with approval by all 28 EU members (seems unlikely)

3.  delay 

 

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Just now, balticus said:

 

Sorry to ask basic questions but are the current paths roughly:

 

1.  crash out with no deal (unless blocked by the anti-no-dealers)

2.  close all the gaps in the current agreement before end of October with approval by all 28 EU members (seems unlikely)

3.  delay 

 

 

What BoJo and Cummings do not understand is that it is the speaker who controls the house.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-parliament-supended-no-deal-queens-speech-john-bercow-a9082651.html

 

BoJo played his last card. Bercow has still to play his.

 

A speaker hell-bent on stopping Brexit, with little left to lose, will be a very dangerous opponent for Johnson. Only one of their political careers can survive this confrontation. The outcome of this battle may well determine whether the government will survive – and whether Brexit will happen at all.

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1 hour ago, balticus said:

 

Sorry to ask basic questions but are the current paths roughly:

 

1.  crash out with no deal (unless blocked by the anti-no-dealers)

2.  close all the gaps in the current agreement before end of October with approval by all 28 EU members (seems unlikely)

3.  delay 

 

 

It depends who you believe.  The actual options are:

 

* same deal

* new deal

* no deal

* delay

 

Bojo has said no to same deal and has said we are leaving for sure, eu has said no to new deal, so assuming you believe both sides the only remaining option is no deal.  Whether thats true we will have to wait and see, it wouldnt be the first time red lines and final final promises and commitments had turned out to be nothing of the sort.

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4 hours ago, murphaph said:

To be honest without mass street protests you can sign as many online petitions as you like. They really won't change anything. I think most remainders are resigned to leaving.

Sadly, I agree with all of that, except the reference to "mass street protests", which implies that they might change something. Given the last two mass demos were the anti-Brexit one, and the anti Iraq war one, I don't think even they will do anything. 

There is a real sense of resignation.

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One off protests can be weathered by govt. I'm talking sustained protests. There isn't the appetite for it though. 

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11 hours ago, murphaph said:

One off protests can be weathered by govt. I'm talking sustained protests. There isn't the appetite for it though. 

 

Especially when the opposition is such a mess. If labour had an actual anti brexit leader who was popular then the whole thing would be a massive problem for BoJo. As it is corbyn is the ace up BoJos sleve -- if you bring me down then you get the racist grandad who hates jews and campaigned most of his life to leave the eu.

 

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